How Trump Is Turning Canada Into America's Ukraine.
Psst... that is not a good thing.
If I understand how Trump’s tariff threats against Canada and Mexico worked out yesterday — and I’d like to think that I do — Trump suspended their implementation for a month in return for
Mexico agreeing to send troops that were already at the border… to the border.
Canada agreeing to implement their border plan… that they announced prior to Trump’s tariff threat.
In other words, Trump blinked. As I wrote last November, “Both great powers and smaller states know by now that the best way to deal with Trump is to shower him with pomp and circumstance, abstain from fact-checking him in public, make flashy but token concessions, and remain secure that by and large their core interests will be preserved.”
To his credit, Trump averted a disaster scenario — but at what price? As I noted during the Colombia episode, repeated sanctioning temper tantrums can have deleterious long-term effects.
In the case of Canada in particular, the hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World is baffled by whatever game Trump thinks he is playing with rhetoric like this:
In this case it does not matter whether one tries to take Trump seriously or literally — either way he is not making any sense.
We already know that Americans are mostly uninterested in having Canada join the union. But that pales in comparison to how Canadians feel about the topic. Just as the overwhelming majority of Greenlanders do not want to join the United States, the overwhelming majority of Canadians do not want to join the United States. At least, that is the result of YouGov’s latest survey of Canadians:
Nearly all Canadians (77%) strongly or somewhat oppose Canada becoming part of the U.S., while 15% of Canadians support it….
Opposition to joining the U.S. is widespread in Canada. 70% or more strongly or somewhat oppose the idea among Canadians who supported the Liberal Party, Conservative Party, and New Democratic Party in the 2021 federal elections, and among residents of Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and the Prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba….
Two-thirds (68%) of Canadians say Canada joining the U.S. would be bad for Canada, while only 13% say it would be good for Canada.
The YouGov poll is not an outlier; other Canadian polling yields similar results.
Furthermore, all of this polling happened before the Trump’s tariffs were close to being implemented. Chrystia Freeland — who could be Canada’s next prime minister — said over the weekend that Trump’s tariff threats were, “a betrayal of America’s closest friend, of your ally, your neighbor, your best partner in the whole world. It is an act of economic warfare, and the president was clear just this morning, it is a direct attack on our sovereignty.”
If sports fans are any guide, it’s safe to say that Canadians are even less enamored about the idea of joining the United States than they were a month ago:
Politico’s Mickey Djuric reports that Trump’s threats have not exactly endeared him — or the country that voted him back into office — to Canadians:
Facing a devastating trade war, Canadians have been canceling on Arizona, bypassing Florida oranges at the grocery store and booing at top volume through the U.S. anthem at the start of NBA and NHL games.
“We have a reputation for being chill, relaxed, kind of an easy going country,” British Columbia Premier David Eby told reporters on Monday morning. “You want to see Canadians get their back up and get things done? Then threaten their sovereignty.”
U.S. President Donald Trump did just that on Monday afternoon in the Oval Office, repeating how he’d like Canada to become a 51st state. While few Canadians understand the president’s desire to punish Canada with 25 percent tariffs, they’ve come to appreciate that it’s all very serious….
Anti-American fever peaked in Canada over the weekend after Trump announced the tariffs were on the way. At a pop-up DJ show in Montreal, a digital sign read “F—K TARIFFS.” On Saturday night in Ottawa, “The Star-Spangled Banner” was booed before the Senators went on to blow out the Minnesota Wild. The jeering continued through the weekend at NHL and NBA games across the country.
“We are seeing a beautiful surge of Maple Leafs,” New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt said to reporters Monday. “And I think that comes alongside a bit of anti-American sentiment, a frustration that our closest neighbor and trading partner has decided to treat us this way.”
On social media and family Zoom calls, Canadians plotted ways to use their own dollar, and voice, to send a message to Americans — despite their longstanding history of being friends, neighbors and family.
Maybe Trump thinks he can shift Canadian public opinion through his command of the bully pulpit, but all of the available evidence suggests the opposite is true.
The danger here is that the United States is doing to Canada what Russia did to Ukraine. For its first fifteen years of independence after 1991, Ukrainians were divided amongst themselves and pretty pliant in dealing with Moscow. As Russia began applying even greater pressure on its Slavic neighbor, however, Ukraine began sounding more unified. The more that Ukraine oriented itself towards the West, the more insecure that Russia felt. As Russia amped up its pressure, Ukraine continued to suffer — and become even more anti-Russian.
The parallels to Canada are straightforward. I, for one, would rather not antagonize America’s Northern neighbor. Because I would prefer not see Canadians withholding their delicious maple syrup continue to be hostile to Americans.
Trump might think he is having fun needling Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau. But I fail to see any way in which Canada grows closer to the United States while Trump is president.
As per usual in his second term, Trump seems bound and determined to exacerbate a problem that previously did not exist.
Trust takes a generation to build and an eyeblink to destroy. The mere threat of tariffs is an illegal, unjustifiable breach of a treaty he negotiated only 6 years ago, It was an intentional abrogation and thus means that no treaty and no promise made by the US can be relied on. Clearly, as everyone knows, 'only a fool trusts Trump', but for the United States the much more serious and corrosive issue is how pervasive and long lasting the conclusion that 'only a fool trusts Americans' becomes. The evidence from behaviour of most Republicans, and many others, is that the problem extends well beyond Trump. As a result, it would be unwise for any country to consider cooperation or tighter integration in any activity - trade, military, security, banking, immigration .... - with the United States that in any way that results in any reduction of complete independence. And while nothing will be sudden, that in a nutshell foretells the inevitable and massive loss of US soft power.
Yup. You would be surprised by the number of people who posted screenshots of their cancelled Netflix and Amazon subscriptions; the stores who flagged products in their shelves; and the vitriol on social media, wow. Trump is turning friends into enemies. Meanwhile Dimitry Medvedev applauded Musk's dismantling of USAID, which had done so much to overthrow his beloved Apartheid South Africa. And oh, here's what the new acting Under Secretary for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs, Darren Beattie tweeted last year: "Competent white men must be in charge if you want things to work."
That deafening sound you hear is American prestige disintegrating in flight.