Look Who's Talking in World Politics

The Biden administration is taking advantage of Russia and China being distracted.

Photo by Mathias Reding on Unsplash

It’s UNGA week — i.e., the week when heads of state and government converge on New York for the opening of the United Nations General Assembly. President Biden has been busy. In addition to his UNGA address, he met with a variety of world leaders on the margins of Turtle Bay. The Biden administration also rolled out two U.S. diplomatic initiatives that will likely generate few headlines but piqued the interest of the hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World.

The first is a brand new grouping — the Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation, a grouping of 32 countries from North America, South America, Europe, and Africa. Prominent members include Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Norway, the United Kingdom, Spain, Morocco, Ghana, Nigeria, and Angola. It’s the first grouping to include countries from both the North and South Atlantic. It’s intent is to address a broad range of issues, from economic development to environmental protection to science and technology. In their joint declaration, the members pledged to work towards “a peaceful, stable, prosperous, open, safe, cooperative Atlantic region and to conserve a healthy, sustainable, and resilient resource for generations to come.”

You know which country is not a member of the Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation? China.¹ The Financial Times’ James Politi notes that while this grouping has no security component to it, there is still a subtweet of China involved:²

The move comes as the White House tries to improve relations with developing countries and rally financial support for them, in an effort to offer a more viable alternative to China’s growing global economic clout and infrastructure investments.

It also comes in the wake of criticism from some countries that the US has been disproportionately focused — both economically and strategically — on supporting Ukraine compared with countries in the “global south” that have faced huge challenges from the coronavirus pandemic to climate change, high interest rates and international debt.

The Atlantic pact does not have a security or military component so it is not intended as a complement or addition to Nato, which encompasses north Atlantic and European nations. But it does include a pledge to ensure Atlantic countries are “free from interference, coercion, or aggressive action” and will ensure “sovereign equality, territorial integrity, and political independence”.

Yeah, that’s definitely a subtweet of China.

Also at UNGA, Biden elevated another grouping with an unlikely cohort of countries: the five Central Asian republics. Voice of America’s Anita Powell provided a rundown:

On the sidelines Tuesday of the United Nations General Assembly, Biden met with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The former Soviet states have continuing security ties with Russia and growing economic and diplomatic ties to China — and great cultural and historical significance as the main arteries of the Silk Road, the ancient network of Eurasian trade routes that connected the East and West for 1,500 years.

Biden described this meeting of the C5+1 diplomatic platform — held for the first time at this level — as "a historic moment, building on years of close cooperation."….

In his closing words Tuesday to the world leaders, Biden appeared to hint at [a presidential visit to Central Asia.]

"I look forward to seeing you soon," he said. "Possibly in one of your countries."

The White House’s readout of the C5+1 meeting suggests yet more subtweeting, this tome of both China and Russia:

The leaders discussed a range of issues, including security, trade and investment, regional connectivity, the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations, and ongoing reforms to improve governance and the rule of law.  President Biden welcomed his counterparts’ views on how our nations can work together to further strengthen the Central Asian nations’ sovereignty, resilience, and prosperity while also advancing human rights through our C5+1 partnership….

Because President Biden recognizes that our countries must cooperate to have resilient, secure supply chains that can support the future energy landscape, the United States proposed launching a C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue to develop Central Asia’s vast mineral wealth and advance critical minerals security.  

The U.S. diplomatic outreach is coming at a time when both Russia and China seem more preoccupied with core concerns. China’s slowing economy has caused a drastic reduction in its international largesse. Russia is preoccupied with tying to consolidate control over some previously privatized foreign policy adventurism. To the extent that Russia has engaged in any successful recent outreach, it’s been with North Korea.

Neither the Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation nor the C5+1 are global governance game-changers. Because there is no treaty foundation for either grouping, they might go dormant if someone else becomes president in 2025.

Still, to repeat a theme, the Biden administration is awfully good at tending to its allies while enlarging the number of potential partners. It’s particularly interesting that Brazil signed onto the Atlantic partnership given Lula’s efforts to stand apart from the West. The more that the Biden administration can deepen ties with fence-sitters, the more likely those countries will lean closer to the United States if great power tensions get worse.

1. Well, also Mexico, which is also an eyebrow-raiser.

2. Side note: even as Twitter is dying a slow death, and even as Musk has inexplicably abandoned the term “tweet,” I do hope “subtweet” lives on in the English language because it’s such a great word.