Wholly apart from the pretty complete cave (not Plato's or Nick's; the political one)...as someone else, noted why is the *Secretary of the Treasury* treating a single private financial firm to an advance look at what might move the market? Sounds to me like an invitation to the firm's employees to trade ahead of the non-insiders.
So,after the dust clears, and Bessent's audience goes long on S&P 500 calls, what we have is an "Adult in the room" (the only?) taking charge on calming the markets, and felon Ron Varo and total dickhead Lutnick "neutralized" as policy spox. Next order of bidness is Bessent overseeing a tRump "We showed 'em, dint we?" victory claim, and we all move on.
Another FUBAR is just round the corner, so let's not celebrate tRump's debasing climbdown yet.
This administration (Trump = "Unified Executive"😉) is turning us into the Weakling Country faster than lightning! We can't tell a two- bit Latin American dictator to return our own (wrongfully-detained, fully-paid for, by us) prisoner to us. And we are showing that our president and team are absolutely too weak (and too impulsive, and too short-sighted) to squeeze the Chinese! Better to have never started this misbegotten trade war. WEAK!!
The guy running a news stand or corner convenience store could negotiate better terms for American businesses than this bozo. Everything this 78 year old child does is simply for the attention that he didn't get from his cold hearted racist parents. And we were worried about Biden losing it...OY!
Next step in this horrible Off Broadway "play" will certainly be the firings. Let's remember the life span of cabinet members in Trump 1.0. Gotta blame somebody! And "You're fired" is the equivalent of "Let the lions in" at the Coliseum. For this guy it's just a TV show. For billions of others it is suffering and death.
If this was a novel or movie, it wouldn't sell - just too stupid. Wait, I forgot about "Idiocracy".
This all makes perfect sense, but I have to ask, wasn't this all shown before?
During his first term despite a lot of bluster he also caved on trade. His deal with China wasn't the magic he promised and when they failed to meet the terms he did *nothing*. Likewise his renegotiated UMCA mostly tinkered around the edges of NAFTA when all was said and done but he still ran around proclaiming massive wins.
At this point he has provided ample evidence that in any negotiation he will: a) lie and even contradict his own prior positions at will, making him untrustworthy; b) respond positively to outright bribery and insincere flattery more than anything else even to the point of taking real losses, which makes him unreliable; and c) capitulate in the face of a response, making him weak.
At this point the only people who don't recognize him as an insecure and weak bully are Republicans.
The tariff war won't last forever. When it's over, there will be plenty of anti-Trump people telling us Trump failed, or more likely, did nothing. Trade deficits, however, will tell the story. It's much harder to game real numbers.
It’s a straightforward question. No snark. I want to find out if you have a point to make about trade deficits or not.
Most economists don’t have a strong view one way or the other about trade deficits, even those that are sustained over long periods. So I’d like to know why you do.
As for trade deficits and jobs, the USA has been doing just fine, with low unemployment and a trade deficit. So what point are you trying to make?
"Most economists don’t have a strong view one way or the other about trade deficits" --False. All economists agree trade deficits are bad. "the USA has been doing just fine" --False. For 40 years working people have seen their jobs leached away by trade deficits. If you care about working people, then reducing trade deficits is critical. If you don't, you're right. There's no point at all.
The trade deficit will be lower than expected due to lower GDP growth caused by Trump’s insanity. The last prediction I saw was 0.9% lower GDP growth this year than expected.
To my knowledge, you can’t really get back lost GDP growth. It’s just gone. You won’t “make it up” the following year.
Some tiny change is not what we're talking about. Trump's attempting an enormous, historic shift. If he drives the trade deficit down to zero, it will be hard to say nothing happened. Although something tells me there will be those who try
I'm not confident at all that we'll come out on the positive side, tradewise; I suspect we'll be worse off than we were, soon enough, though Trump will probably back down completely and then proclaim victory.
If you control the message and its delivery (Fox & conservative radio and TV), you always will be correct, just as Putin is always correct.
Europe and other countries have seen this before and are in the process of forming new alliances. They really have no choice. The US is no longer reliable.
For example, Europe buys more from US defense contractors than the US does. That is in the process of changing. European defense contractors stocks are up.
"Chinese made junk" I think you are living in the 60's & 70's. Check the "made in" sticker on most things you have purchased from toys to high end electronics. It will be made in China.
BTW, it's impossible to plan with yo-yo tariffs. No one is going to move a 3 billion dollar plant that takes 5 years to build on account of yo-yo tariffs. They will, however, with help like the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPs act, and Infrastructure act (all Democrat, all Biden).
Wholly apart from the pretty complete cave (not Plato's or Nick's; the political one)...as someone else, noted why is the *Secretary of the Treasury* treating a single private financial firm to an advance look at what might move the market? Sounds to me like an invitation to the firm's employees to trade ahead of the non-insiders.
Banger of a post Daniel and team!
By "team", you mean the rest of the hard-working staff at Drezner's World, right? A tremendously huge number of people, believe me.
Oh yeah, they are amazing
So,after the dust clears, and Bessent's audience goes long on S&P 500 calls, what we have is an "Adult in the room" (the only?) taking charge on calming the markets, and felon Ron Varo and total dickhead Lutnick "neutralized" as policy spox. Next order of bidness is Bessent overseeing a tRump "We showed 'em, dint we?" victory claim, and we all move on.
Another FUBAR is just round the corner, so let's not celebrate tRump's debasing climbdown yet.
This administration (Trump = "Unified Executive"😉) is turning us into the Weakling Country faster than lightning! We can't tell a two- bit Latin American dictator to return our own (wrongfully-detained, fully-paid for, by us) prisoner to us. And we are showing that our president and team are absolutely too weak (and too impulsive, and too short-sighted) to squeeze the Chinese! Better to have never started this misbegotten trade war. WEAK!!
Evil moron.
Next he’ll be hiring unfrozen caveman lawyer..😎
Spelunker-in-chief
Minor typo: In the last paragraph you have “pain” when I think you mean “paint”.
If you were in Trump's inner circle and aware of what he was going to say next about tariffs, you would be making a killing in the stock market.
https://x.com/donwinslow/status/1910774168301518895?s=19
The guy running a news stand or corner convenience store could negotiate better terms for American businesses than this bozo. Everything this 78 year old child does is simply for the attention that he didn't get from his cold hearted racist parents. And we were worried about Biden losing it...OY!
Next step in this horrible Off Broadway "play" will certainly be the firings. Let's remember the life span of cabinet members in Trump 1.0. Gotta blame somebody! And "You're fired" is the equivalent of "Let the lions in" at the Coliseum. For this guy it's just a TV show. For billions of others it is suffering and death.
If this was a novel or movie, it wouldn't sell - just too stupid. Wait, I forgot about "Idiocracy".
This all makes perfect sense, but I have to ask, wasn't this all shown before?
During his first term despite a lot of bluster he also caved on trade. His deal with China wasn't the magic he promised and when they failed to meet the terms he did *nothing*. Likewise his renegotiated UMCA mostly tinkered around the edges of NAFTA when all was said and done but he still ran around proclaiming massive wins.
At this point he has provided ample evidence that in any negotiation he will: a) lie and even contradict his own prior positions at will, making him untrustworthy; b) respond positively to outright bribery and insincere flattery more than anything else even to the point of taking real losses, which makes him unreliable; and c) capitulate in the face of a response, making him weak.
At this point the only people who don't recognize him as an insecure and weak bully are Republicans.
"Donald Trump’s primary bargaining gift is his ability to pain a tactical retreat as a strategic victory to his political base"
paint?
Isn’t Bessent just a clown?
The tariff war won't last forever. When it's over, there will be plenty of anti-Trump people telling us Trump failed, or more likely, did nothing. Trade deficits, however, will tell the story. It's much harder to game real numbers.
Why would you be worried about trade deficits?
Unlike some people I work for a living
That’s great. Why are you worried about trade deficits?
Look up trade deficits and jobs and get back to me. Or are you just being redundant, snarky, and dense?
It’s a straightforward question. No snark. I want to find out if you have a point to make about trade deficits or not.
Most economists don’t have a strong view one way or the other about trade deficits, even those that are sustained over long periods. So I’d like to know why you do.
As for trade deficits and jobs, the USA has been doing just fine, with low unemployment and a trade deficit. So what point are you trying to make?
"Most economists don’t have a strong view one way or the other about trade deficits" --False. All economists agree trade deficits are bad. "the USA has been doing just fine" --False. For 40 years working people have seen their jobs leached away by trade deficits. If you care about working people, then reducing trade deficits is critical. If you don't, you're right. There's no point at all.
The trade deficit will be lower than expected due to lower GDP growth caused by Trump’s insanity. The last prediction I saw was 0.9% lower GDP growth this year than expected.
To my knowledge, you can’t really get back lost GDP growth. It’s just gone. You won’t “make it up” the following year.
Some tiny change is not what we're talking about. Trump's attempting an enormous, historic shift. If he drives the trade deficit down to zero, it will be hard to say nothing happened. Although something tells me there will be those who try
If Trump drives the trade deficit down to zero, the U.S. will experience a second great depression. Nobody will say that nothing happened.
Yeah right. I notice when people get cornered, they start making things up
But Trump sycophants say that any price is worth it in order to something something yada yada…
I'm not confident at all that we'll come out on the positive side, tradewise; I suspect we'll be worse off than we were, soon enough, though Trump will probably back down completely and then proclaim victory.
If you control the message and its delivery (Fox & conservative radio and TV), you always will be correct, just as Putin is always correct.
Europe and other countries have seen this before and are in the process of forming new alliances. They really have no choice. The US is no longer reliable.
For example, Europe buys more from US defense contractors than the US does. That is in the process of changing. European defense contractors stocks are up.
Weak knees weak mind
The liberal elite made plenty of money the old way. Of course they're not happy.
"Chinese made junk" I think you are living in the 60's & 70's. Check the "made in" sticker on most things you have purchased from toys to high end electronics. It will be made in China.
BTW, it's impossible to plan with yo-yo tariffs. No one is going to move a 3 billion dollar plant that takes 5 years to build on account of yo-yo tariffs. They will, however, with help like the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPs act, and Infrastructure act (all Democrat, all Biden).
Is it really worth trying to get back jobs making low cost cloths and other such inexpensive items as you find at Walmart?
Your rudeness is uncalled for. You don’t know anything about me. My son has no college degree but earns a living wage in a trade.