Sadly, this is about as good as it gets, I doubt the country would support the size and scope of an invasion to wrest control of the Strait, and the inevitable "nation building" that will be required.
Honestly, I am puzzled by so much analysis of what is happening with this ceasefire. I have read many commentaries stating that it was Trump's threat of civilization destruction that forced Iran to agree to a ceasefire. It took me some time to find a timeline of demands made - by both the US and Iran - going back to just prior to when the war started on 2/28 (that is, when Iran and the US were negotiating, led by the stellar, knowledgeable diplomatic team of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner). Throughout the last 6 weeks, Iran has been pretty consistent in its demands, with some variations, and the US, through Trump's Truth Social verbal dribblings, has been all over the place. I am far from being a conspiracy theorist but it honestly appears to me that Iran's 10-point plan, which apparently Trump had before his civilization erasure threats, is the same as the one the Revolutionary Guard released this week and which Trump is now denying is the one he agreed to being the basis for negotiations. Given that, in his press conference, he obviously confused Iran's 10-point plan with the US 15-point plan which Iran had rejected repeatedly, it is not clear that he cognitively understood any of it except that it allowed him to claim that Iran had backed down and the US had a strategic victory over Iran. And, now, of course, we have that stellar, knowledgeable diplomatic team of Vance, Witkoff and Kushner journeying to Islamabad to negotiate the terms of a ceasefire agreement. Where is Israel, by the way? I guess they're off bombing Lebanon and displacing over a million Lebanese citizens...
One of the biggest problems here, and it kind of amazes me, is that so many people think they can only call Trump mad, and never evil. Trump is far more utterly lacking in morality than he is mad, and this is far more of a danger. And, come on, we have to ridiculously assume that Trump believes all of the outrageous untruths he says. It’s never possible that he’s just claiming it, but knows it’s false. We always have to say he believes these things?! The conman knows he is lying, and Trump has been a horrific conman his entire life.
Maybe, just maybe, the Iranian regime realized that Trump is far more amoral than mad, and so he’s not going to do anything that would be politically devastating when he hasn’t succeeded yet in destroying democracy completely.
Another good piece that I willingly pay (and will continue to pay) money to support.
We'll have to wait for the historians for a stronger conclusion but I don't think this was the case of a calculating President feigning 'madness' as a tactical mood. The more straightforward explanation is an emotionally indisciplined man, who has destroyed most guardrails just indulging his intemperate moods.
China. They can take Taiwan any time they want without firing a shot. No way Trump would withstand the pain the stock markets would impose if he tried to stop them.
Ukraine also looks to have done well, with its demonstration of its drone warfare capability.
Russia may be a wash. The war may have helped Ukraine enough to offset Russia selling more oil.
Losers:
US
Israel
The US/Israel relationship. I don't see how it survives in its current form. Too many people in both major US parties are ready to roll Bibi under the bus. I wonder if he realizes that?
Taiwan. I don't see how Taiwan remains free after this. At best it becomes a Chinese protectorate.
The Gulf states also lost a fair bit.
Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines have got to be unhappy. They're a *lot* closer to China than the US.
Nuclear non-proliferation. Between this and Ukraine I don't see how any country with a large, powerful, and acquisitive neighbor isn't pursuing nuclear weapons right now.
I don't think there's a real ceasefire. The US is, for all practical (and for that matter impractical) purposes, declaring victory and leaving. Trump saw the reaction of the markets to this and is highly incentivized to call this "victory".
This is pretty close to a worst case scenario for Bibi, and not good for Israel.
But Trump has the out of saying "It's Europe's|China's|Someone else's problem! Not ours!" And, yeah, he already tried it. But I bet he can keep kicking the can down the road if we haven't restarted shooting. And will the markets tumble as much as they just rose? That will probably have an effect on his thinking, too.
Or maybe we'll get lucky and the GOP in Congress will grow a spine and do something about him.
Mad Men - not of the Madison Avenue/Matthew Weiner variety - have a lengthy history demanding that, for example, the ocean stop encroaching on the shore. Usually, it doesn't work out well for the Mad Men, because the laws of physics don't, y'know, accede to complaints and threats from mere humans.
Why are you assuming that the “ceasefire” was anything more than a continuation of the smoke-and-mirrors campaign Trump has been using to distract the world from his military buildup in the Gulf?
3%?! That would indicate a high degree of madness certainly, if true. That looks far too high from what I’m seeing. Trump still seems to have a very high degree of self preservation, and this would be very obviously incredibly self-destructive. Would the military carry out this order? But 3% seems incredibly too high.
Your point about the fraying of US alliances is a good one. Trump has been so insulting to US allies that massive resentment has built up. That is why they refused to assist him when the US and Israel attacked Iran in the middle of nuclear negotiations. Apart from the ridiculous Mark Rutte no one over here in Europe thinks relations will ever be repaired.
Without discussing the politics of Trump's personality, what has the US gained strategically from this war? The confirmed results as it stands are as follows:
- Iran has installed a "toll booth" on the Strait of Hormuz: verifiable by open source reporting and AIS traffic patterns. They now have a source of revenue that, if shipping resumes pre-war levels, will equal their entire military budget for the last year, doubling their military spending potential going forward.
- Iran remains under the control of the IRGC and clerics.
- IRGC leadership killed in strikes have been replaced with IRGC career hard liners who have reduced incentive now to negotiate- the war started in the middle of active negotiations with the former leaders, who likely gathered to discuss the state of negotiations, exposing their position, which allowed the US and Israel to track them and kill them.
- Iran retains it's enriched uranium.
- Iranian underground facilities are not destroyed. There is no indication they will have to stop building drones, missiles, or enriching uranium. They have maintained a consistent cadence of retaliatory strikes since day 2 of the conflict. They are assessed to retain significant stocks of drones, missiles, and naval mines.
- The US / Israel severely depleted their stocks of interceptor weapons at a terrible cost ratio, shifting expensive and limited out of theater assets to the Middle East to defend against significantly more expendable Iranian weapons. The US is assessed to have used 1/3 of its Tomahawk missile stocks. The current replacement rate would take 8 years to rebuild the pre war stock. The US used an unknown, high amount of long range standoff weapons to target low value Iranian assets including tunnel entrances that can be simply excavated back open. When the Iranians excavated, the US started targeting bulldozers. Again, at an astronomical cost differential- the weapons being used being far more expensive to replace than the Iranian targets.
- The US lost multiple high value assets, ranging from hundreds of millions to over a billion dollars a unit. The Iranians used drones and cheap surface to air missiles to destroy US assets including multiple KC135, Patriot and THAAD batteries, F15Es, E3 AWACS, and likely an F35. These assets are highly valuable to any future conflict with China, which already far exceeds the US in quantity of ships, planes, missiles, and advanced military equipment.
- Our allies in Southeast Asia are experiencing severe economic shock as a result of the disruption of ship traffic.
- Sanctions against Russia were suspended, restoring a key line of resources as they pursue a war of aggression against Ukraine.
From a military and strategic viewpoint, this is a resounding loss for the United States. Little changes for Israel- they're continuing an invasion of Lebanon and causing humanitarian crises which will certainly provide effective recruitment tools for the next cycle of conflict. I suppose Israel can keep winning defensive wars decade by decade until they have occupied the entire Middle East and deport the Arabs to Madagascar or something in 2126, but that's just speculation.
What has the US and the Western world gained from this conflict?
The only positive I could see is underscoring the immense issue of oil dependancy in Europe and Southeast Asia, forcing them to start building LNG and nuclear power at scale, but the leadership in those regions are far more likely to pursue politically expedient solutions, which effectively means importing oil from an authoritarian, aggressive Russia, or pursuing security guarantees outside of the US based global order and cozying up to Iran and China. Multiple countries have been confirmed to be negotiating in the background with Iran to pay the extortion fee to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Unless there is a strong political cross wind in our erstwhile "allies" we've likely accelerated the decline and weakening of global democracy.
So with all that in mind- what did I mention that qualifies as "Trump Derangement Syndrone"? What did I miss? Everything that I wrote is a verifiable reality- not a press statement or interview, or opinion, but the hard facts being reported in the background of the political hooplah. I don't think it's TDS to read the situation and acknowledge this isn't a victory. Separate the commentary on Trump as a person from these facts- it doesn't paint the picture the White House is portraying.
i come here to be forced to be reminded that bill bennett is still alive, and for other laugh-not-to-cry therapies. Roy's a balm in gilead, so to speak (as is this neighborhood). It beats the coma.
The Madman Theory, such as it is, seems to depend on a background of sane, competent, knowledgeable Cabinet members. Trump's Cabinet possesses none of those attributes.
Madman theory or Madman in fact?
Sadly, this is about as good as it gets, I doubt the country would support the size and scope of an invasion to wrest control of the Strait, and the inevitable "nation building" that will be required.
It will be quagmire redux
Honestly, I am puzzled by so much analysis of what is happening with this ceasefire. I have read many commentaries stating that it was Trump's threat of civilization destruction that forced Iran to agree to a ceasefire. It took me some time to find a timeline of demands made - by both the US and Iran - going back to just prior to when the war started on 2/28 (that is, when Iran and the US were negotiating, led by the stellar, knowledgeable diplomatic team of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner). Throughout the last 6 weeks, Iran has been pretty consistent in its demands, with some variations, and the US, through Trump's Truth Social verbal dribblings, has been all over the place. I am far from being a conspiracy theorist but it honestly appears to me that Iran's 10-point plan, which apparently Trump had before his civilization erasure threats, is the same as the one the Revolutionary Guard released this week and which Trump is now denying is the one he agreed to being the basis for negotiations. Given that, in his press conference, he obviously confused Iran's 10-point plan with the US 15-point plan which Iran had rejected repeatedly, it is not clear that he cognitively understood any of it except that it allowed him to claim that Iran had backed down and the US had a strategic victory over Iran. And, now, of course, we have that stellar, knowledgeable diplomatic team of Vance, Witkoff and Kushner journeying to Islamabad to negotiate the terms of a ceasefire agreement. Where is Israel, by the way? I guess they're off bombing Lebanon and displacing over a million Lebanese citizens...
One of the biggest problems here, and it kind of amazes me, is that so many people think they can only call Trump mad, and never evil. Trump is far more utterly lacking in morality than he is mad, and this is far more of a danger. And, come on, we have to ridiculously assume that Trump believes all of the outrageous untruths he says. It’s never possible that he’s just claiming it, but knows it’s false. We always have to say he believes these things?! The conman knows he is lying, and Trump has been a horrific conman his entire life.
Maybe, just maybe, the Iranian regime realized that Trump is far more amoral than mad, and so he’s not going to do anything that would be politically devastating when he hasn’t succeeded yet in destroying democracy completely.
Another good piece that I willingly pay (and will continue to pay) money to support.
We'll have to wait for the historians for a stronger conclusion but I don't think this was the case of a calculating President feigning 'madness' as a tactical mood. The more straightforward explanation is an emotionally indisciplined man, who has destroyed most guardrails just indulging his intemperate moods.
Big winners of this war:
Iran.
China. They can take Taiwan any time they want without firing a shot. No way Trump would withstand the pain the stock markets would impose if he tried to stop them.
Ukraine also looks to have done well, with its demonstration of its drone warfare capability.
Russia may be a wash. The war may have helped Ukraine enough to offset Russia selling more oil.
Losers:
US
Israel
The US/Israel relationship. I don't see how it survives in its current form. Too many people in both major US parties are ready to roll Bibi under the bus. I wonder if he realizes that?
Taiwan. I don't see how Taiwan remains free after this. At best it becomes a Chinese protectorate.
The Gulf states also lost a fair bit.
Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines have got to be unhappy. They're a *lot* closer to China than the US.
Nuclear non-proliferation. Between this and Ukraine I don't see how any country with a large, powerful, and acquisitive neighbor isn't pursuing nuclear weapons right now.
bibi under the bus would do A LOT for mideast peace
I don't think there's a real ceasefire. The US is, for all practical (and for that matter impractical) purposes, declaring victory and leaving. Trump saw the reaction of the markets to this and is highly incentivized to call this "victory".
This is pretty close to a worst case scenario for Bibi, and not good for Israel.
Except if this is the new status quo I suspect markets will start to tumble again.
But Trump has the out of saying "It's Europe's|China's|Someone else's problem! Not ours!" And, yeah, he already tried it. But I bet he can keep kicking the can down the road if we haven't restarted shooting. And will the markets tumble as much as they just rose? That will probably have an effect on his thinking, too.
Or maybe we'll get lucky and the GOP in Congress will grow a spine and do something about him.
Rest in Power Nasrallah. Prophet and martyr.
"Everything they say about me is true" - Kendrick Lamar & Hassan Nasrallah
Great analysis! Paul Krugman hasn't referred to this as "Operation Epic FUBAR" for nothing.
I think there was a written agreement, but only the Farsi text allowed Iran to continue enriching. Pretty much the crux of this war thing.
Which begs the question: is anyone in the State & Defense departments, CIA, DIA, etc. fluent in Farsi? Can even struggle through an Iranian newspaper?
DOGE cleared out a lot of energy and regional specialists.
Trump had a 1 on 1 with Putin on the sidelines of a multinational conference with only Putin’s translator present.
Mad Men - not of the Madison Avenue/Matthew Weiner variety - have a lengthy history demanding that, for example, the ocean stop encroaching on the shore. Usually, it doesn't work out well for the Mad Men, because the laws of physics don't, y'know, accede to complaints and threats from mere humans.
Why are you assuming that the “ceasefire” was anything more than a continuation of the smoke-and-mirrors campaign Trump has been using to distract the world from his military buildup in the Gulf?
3%?! That would indicate a high degree of madness certainly, if true. That looks far too high from what I’m seeing. Trump still seems to have a very high degree of self preservation, and this would be very obviously incredibly self-destructive. Would the military carry out this order? But 3% seems incredibly too high.
Your point about the fraying of US alliances is a good one. Trump has been so insulting to US allies that massive resentment has built up. That is why they refused to assist him when the US and Israel attacked Iran in the middle of nuclear negotiations. Apart from the ridiculous Mark Rutte no one over here in Europe thinks relations will ever be repaired.
Will do
I can't wait to gloat when your never ending trump derangement syndrome analysis is once again proven wrong.
Without discussing the politics of Trump's personality, what has the US gained strategically from this war? The confirmed results as it stands are as follows:
- Iran has installed a "toll booth" on the Strait of Hormuz: verifiable by open source reporting and AIS traffic patterns. They now have a source of revenue that, if shipping resumes pre-war levels, will equal their entire military budget for the last year, doubling their military spending potential going forward.
- Iran remains under the control of the IRGC and clerics.
- IRGC leadership killed in strikes have been replaced with IRGC career hard liners who have reduced incentive now to negotiate- the war started in the middle of active negotiations with the former leaders, who likely gathered to discuss the state of negotiations, exposing their position, which allowed the US and Israel to track them and kill them.
- Iran retains it's enriched uranium.
- Iranian underground facilities are not destroyed. There is no indication they will have to stop building drones, missiles, or enriching uranium. They have maintained a consistent cadence of retaliatory strikes since day 2 of the conflict. They are assessed to retain significant stocks of drones, missiles, and naval mines.
- The US / Israel severely depleted their stocks of interceptor weapons at a terrible cost ratio, shifting expensive and limited out of theater assets to the Middle East to defend against significantly more expendable Iranian weapons. The US is assessed to have used 1/3 of its Tomahawk missile stocks. The current replacement rate would take 8 years to rebuild the pre war stock. The US used an unknown, high amount of long range standoff weapons to target low value Iranian assets including tunnel entrances that can be simply excavated back open. When the Iranians excavated, the US started targeting bulldozers. Again, at an astronomical cost differential- the weapons being used being far more expensive to replace than the Iranian targets.
- The US lost multiple high value assets, ranging from hundreds of millions to over a billion dollars a unit. The Iranians used drones and cheap surface to air missiles to destroy US assets including multiple KC135, Patriot and THAAD batteries, F15Es, E3 AWACS, and likely an F35. These assets are highly valuable to any future conflict with China, which already far exceeds the US in quantity of ships, planes, missiles, and advanced military equipment.
- Our allies in Southeast Asia are experiencing severe economic shock as a result of the disruption of ship traffic.
- Sanctions against Russia were suspended, restoring a key line of resources as they pursue a war of aggression against Ukraine.
From a military and strategic viewpoint, this is a resounding loss for the United States. Little changes for Israel- they're continuing an invasion of Lebanon and causing humanitarian crises which will certainly provide effective recruitment tools for the next cycle of conflict. I suppose Israel can keep winning defensive wars decade by decade until they have occupied the entire Middle East and deport the Arabs to Madagascar or something in 2126, but that's just speculation.
What has the US and the Western world gained from this conflict?
The only positive I could see is underscoring the immense issue of oil dependancy in Europe and Southeast Asia, forcing them to start building LNG and nuclear power at scale, but the leadership in those regions are far more likely to pursue politically expedient solutions, which effectively means importing oil from an authoritarian, aggressive Russia, or pursuing security guarantees outside of the US based global order and cozying up to Iran and China. Multiple countries have been confirmed to be negotiating in the background with Iran to pay the extortion fee to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Unless there is a strong political cross wind in our erstwhile "allies" we've likely accelerated the decline and weakening of global democracy.
So with all that in mind- what did I mention that qualifies as "Trump Derangement Syndrone"? What did I miss? Everything that I wrote is a verifiable reality- not a press statement or interview, or opinion, but the hard facts being reported in the background of the political hooplah. I don't think it's TDS to read the situation and acknowledge this isn't a victory. Separate the commentary on Trump as a person from these facts- it doesn't paint the picture the White House is portraying.
i come here to be forced to be reminded that bill bennett is still alive, and for other laugh-not-to-cry therapies. Roy's a balm in gilead, so to speak (as is this neighborhood). It beats the coma.
The Madman Theory, such as it is, seems to depend on a background of sane, competent, knowledgeable Cabinet members. Trump's Cabinet possesses none of those attributes.
I knew you'd write about Sanger's bizarre piece. 😅