The Biden Administration's Desire for a Goldilocks Offensive

Why the U.S. government does not want either a catastrophic failure or a catastrophic success for Ukraine's counteroffensive.

Photo by Ivan Lapyrin on Unsplash

At this point everyone and their mother is aware of two things regarding the situation on the ground in Ukraine. First, Russia’s offensive has been so anemic that many analysts were not even aware that it was happening for a few days. A week ago, the New York Times summed up the accomplishments of the offensive as follows: “Russia’s progress essentially adds up to this: three small settlements and part of the city of Bakhmut, a high-profile battlefield with limited strategic value.” While Ukraine’s situation in Bakhmut is not great, Russia otherwise appears to have exhausted its offensive capabilities for now.

Second, Ukraine is going to launch a counteroffensive sometime soon. They’ve been amassing men and materiel for months, and clearly plan on launching an offensive sometime soon. According to the Washington Post, “Ukrainian forces are testing Russian defenses for vulnerabilities ahead of a much-anticipated counteroffensive.” Even though the U.S. intelligence leak might complicate some of Ukraine’s plans, it will not derail the offensive writ large.

From first-hand conversations and second-hand information, a third thing is becoming increasingly clear: U.S. policymakers strongly prefer a Goldilocks offensive in Ukraine. They obviously do not want it to be too much of a failure — but neither do they want it to be too much of a success.