The Foreign Policy Hits Just Keep On Coming
The Trump administration continues to throw it all away.
Last month the hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World discussed the Trump administration’s massive foreign policy own-goal with respect to India. In the interest of fairness, however, the current administration is hardly unique in alienating an ally or partner. Indeed, when it comes to cultivating friendly nations all presidents commit their faux pas — recall the Biden administration wrongfooting France over the AUKUS partnership, for example.
The thing about the Trump administration, however, is that the India foul-up is not a one-off. Instead it appears to be the exemplar of a growing trend: an administration that neither cares nor comprehends the negative policy externalities of what it is doing. Indeed, in recent weeks the administration has managed to wrongfoot multiple key allies, forcing it to do something it does not like to do — admit problems and attempt to clean them up. But these foul-ups are leaving a mark.
Consider Qatar, for example. As a reminder, that country hosts the largest U.S. military base in the region and has gifted president Trump a new Air Force One. None of this, however, deterred close Trump ally Israel from launching an airstrike on Hamas’ leadership in Qatar as that country was hosting cease-fire talks.
Again, to be fair to the Trump administration, it appears Israel launched this attack without alerting the president or his advisers. Indeed, if the Wall Street Journal’s Alexander Ward and Josh Dawsey are correct in their reportage, Trump was displeased with the lack of notice:
Trump told Netanyahu that the decision to target Hamas political leaders in Doha, Qatar’s capital, wasn’t wise. He was angry to learn about the attack as it was occurring from the U.S. military—rather than from Israel—and that it struck the territory of another U.S. ally that was mediating negotiations on ending the Gaza war, the officials said.
Netanyahu responded that he had a brief window to launch the strikes and took the opportunity.
A second call was cordial, officials said, as Trump asked Netanyahu if the attack had proven successful. Netanyahu said he didn’t know. Hours later, Hamas claimed that Israel’s targets survived the strikes, though six lower-level members were killed.
A senior administration official said Trump, a staunch supporter of Israel, is increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu, who continually boxes him in with aggressive moves taken without U.S. input that clash with Trump’s own Middle East goals….
The Israeli strike prompted Hamas to break off cease-fire negotiations. Even worse for Trump, it infuriated Qatar’s leaders, who were mediating between Hamas and Israel in U.S.-led peace talks.
Trump has made strengthening relations with Gulf monarchies a pillar of his Middle East strategy, showing great affection for Qatar’s leaders during a May visit to the capital. The Qataris have reciprocated, gifting the U.S. a $400 million luxury plane to serve as Air Force One. The country also has unveiled plans to host a Trump-branded golf resort.
“This clearly undermines Trump’s peace agenda,” said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, adding that Trump himself is partly at fault because of his “erratic approach” in the Middle East, which “creates space and openings for actors to do as they will.”….
Trump and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff have privately complained in recent months that Netanyahu maneuvers them into difficult situations, often with little warning, officials said….
Trump has surprised Netanyahu in much the same way. In May, the U.S. reached a deal with Hamas to release Edan Alexander, the last remaining living American hostage in Gaza, after more than 18 months in captivity. The Israelis were also surprised that month by Trump’s decision to end a seven-week air campaign against the Yemen-based Houthi rebels in a truce without a requirement for the Houthis to stop attacking Israel.
There are extremely strong parallels between Trump’s tolerance for Benjamin Netanyahu’s provocations and Vladimir Putin’s similar actions. Trump gets upset when either actor crosses a red line — but he does not alter U.S. foreign policy. As a result, other U.S. allies suffer the consequences.
The Trump administration is cleaning up after itself in this instance. Reuters reported that according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, “Qatar and the United States are on the verge of finalising an enhanced defence cooperation agreement.” That would certainly be a win for Qatar. But this episode highlights the blank check that Trump has given Netanyahu when it comes to its behavior in the Middle East — at the cost of having to repeatedly mollify U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf.
Then there is Russia continually probing NATO’s eastern border. Both Max Boot and Tom Nichols note that Russia’s drone incursions over Poland and Romania are inexorably linked with Trump’s tolerance of Vladimir Putin’s shenanigans. As Nichols writes, “A few drones, or even six or seven, are one thing. Nineteen spread across much of eastern Poland is a different matter entirely…. Unfortunately, the Americans are AWOL. Whatever Donald Trump said to Vladimir Putin in Alaska clearly didn’t matter.”
It is safe to say that Trump’s response to this has been more Seinfeldian than stalwart. He posted on Truth Social, “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!” He also suggested that maybe it was a mistake — an idea that Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski flatly rejected, according to the Guardian: “Sikorski rejected the suggestion by Donald Trump that ‘it could have been a mistake’, saying too many drones were involved. ‘You can believe that one or two veer off target, but 19 mistakes in one night, over seven hours, sorry, I don’t believe it,’ he said.” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in response to Trump’s suggestion: “We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.”
Sikorski and Tusk have a point. Eight months in, Trump has consistently refused to follow through on any threat to sanction Russia. Most recently he promised to impose sanctions if NATO members joined in, reducing their purchases of Russian oil. The thing is, as the BBC notes, EU countries have dramatically reduced their energy purchases from Russia.
Even the New York Times’ Maggie Haberman’s prose sounds jaded about Trump’s schtick on this point:
Earlier this month, Mr. Trump told European leaders in a phone call that he wanted them to reduce their Russian oil purchases.
The condition is almost certain not to be met, which Mr. Trump and his advisers know. The biggest European purchasers of Russian oil are two countries with autocratic leaders whom Mr. Trump admires, Hungary and Turkey, and they are highly unlikely to stop. Most other European nations have significantly reduced their Russian oil imports….
Mr. Trump has repeatedly saber-rattled about action against Russia, but left himself a reason to walk away from doing so.
NATO has launched Eastern Sentry to guard against further drone incursions, but Russia’s rhetoric continues to come in hot. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov claimed that it was "obvious" that "NATO is at war with Russia." This does not sound like a country that is deterred.
So neither the Persian Gulf states nor NATO’s eastern flank are feeling terribly reassured by U.S. security guarantees at this point. And yet, neither of these situations have gotten as bad as Trump’s biggest foreign policy fuck-up this month: his administration’s massive own-goal against South Korea.
