The Letter Progressives Should Write to Joe Biden

My gift to the House Progressive Caucus

Photo by Joshua Sukoff on Unsplash

Last week House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy demonstrated his lack of seriousness about U.S. foreign policy toward Ukraine. This week the House Congressional Progressive Caucus seemed to follow McCarthy’s path. And as someone who does not consider himself a progressive, I’m more disappointed than angry at the witless incompetence on display over the past few days. And in the spirit of goodwill within the foreign policy community, I’m going to try to help out.

But let’s start with the witless incompetence. On Monday the Washington Post’s Yasmeen Abutaleb broke a story about 30 CPC members signing a letter “urging President Biden to dramatically shift his strategy on the Ukraine war and pursue direct negotiations with Russia, the first time prominent members of his own party have pushed him to change his approach to Ukraine.”

The hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World would disagree with the Post’s framing of the letter. As I noted on Monday, the sentence that give the game away is this one: “If there is a way to end the war while preserving a free and independent Ukraine, it is America’s responsibility to pursue every diplomatic avenue to support such a solution that is acceptable to the people of Ukraine.” Given that Ukrainians are in no mood for any diplomatic solution right now, that condition alone renders moot the CPC’s mostly anodyne request for a greater diplomatic push.

Soon, however, the content of the letter was overtaken by the clusterfuck of its rollout. One clue that something weird was up was the claim in the letter that: “Russia’s recent seizure of cities in Ukraine’s east have led to the most pivotal moment in the conflict and the consolidation of Russian control over roughly 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory.” That seemed like a badly out-of-date assertion.

There was a reason for that, as Vox’s Jonathan Guyer explained:

The letter had originally been drafted earlier in the summer before Ukraine’s stunning September counteroffensive, and though Politico reported some lines had been updated, others appeared out of date. (The caucus’s leadership sat on the letter because they wanted to gather a critical mass of signatures, according to two congressional sources.)

It looks bad for the progressive wing of Biden’s party to be criticizing him two weeks before the consequential midterm elections. It also made it look like the progressive cohort was siding with Biden’s congressional adversaries, coming a week after Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said that there would be no “blank check” for Ukraine should his party win the midterms, and as billionaire Elon Musk has been floating increasingly outlandish ideas to resolve the war.

On Monday evening, the caucus issued a statement of clarification that emphasized Ukraine’s agency in the members’ diplomatic push. Later, Rep. Mark Pocan (D-WI) said he had signed it in July. “I have no idea why it went out now,” he tweeted. The next morning, Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-CA) tweeted “I signed this letter on June 30, but a lot has changed since then. I wouldn’t sign it today.”

And that was that. Less than 24 hours after the letter was issued it was retracted.

Vox’s Guyer thinks that “the entire episode shows just how fraught and constricted the policy conversation is around Ukraine.” As Guyer’s own reporting suggests, however, the CPCs letter was poorly drafted and suffered from horrendous timing. That’s on whomever wrote and released the letter for the CPC — not its critics.

I would like to see the U.S. increase its support for Ukraine. But I also want to see a vigorous debate on big U.S. foreign policy questions. Ukraine falls into that basket. I am not a progressive on foreign policy, but I bet I could feign one for a few paragraphs. Therefore, in the interest of promoting debate, here’s the letter I would have drafted if I was trying to promote the progressive worldview:

Dear Mr. President:

We write with appreciation for your steadfast commitment to Ukraine’s legitimate struggle against Russia’s illegal war of aggression. We stand with you in opposing Russian attempts to use force as a barbaric substitute for diplomacy. As the war has unfolded, credible media reports accumulate showing evidence of Russian forces committing war crimes, indiscriminately targeting civilians, and forcibly relocating Ukrainian children. Such blatant disregard for the laws of war requires a vigorous, collective global response. This is why Congress has supported your response in bipartisan fashion, and this is why you have demonstrated leadership in building a coalition to assist Ukraine in its self-defense.

We further recognize the collateral damage that this eight-month conflict has wreaked upon the rest of the world. Russia’s unwarranted invasion has created new refugee flows into Europe and triggered spikes in food and fuel prices across the globe. In this time of global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, a prolonged conflict threatens to exacerbate the economic pain felt by millions across the globe — including many of our constituents in the United States.

It is for this reason that we urge you to pair continuing military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push to bring this conflict to a resolution. We are under no illusion that such a diplomatic initiative would be easy. We believe, however, that such efforts are vital to showing the rest of the world that the United States is a force for peace.

A diplomatic initiative would take two tracks. The first would be to engage in talks with countries — such as China, India, and South Africa — that have to date been more circumspect in their response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. If these countries could be persuaded to signal greater disapproval to Russia, that could increase the likelihood of Russian willingness to negotiate.

The second track would be to engage directly with Russia over the possible terms of a temporary cease-fire and a more durable peace agreement. This diplomatic initiative would require Ukrainian participation at every step of the process. While Russian officials have expressed a willingness to negotiate directly with the United States, your administration should in turn demonstrate that Ukraine, as an independent sovereign state with membership in the United Nations, has agency over its own fate.

We recognize that the odds of success for such an initiative are not great. But we also believe that such efforts will signal to all interested parties America’s fervent desire to bring this conflict to as speedy a resolution as possible. That in turn will further highlight Russia’s culpability in the current conflict.

Sincerely,

The Progressives