The Modesty of U.S. Pressure on Iran
Maximum pressure this ain't.
Ever since Iran’s central bank head resigned two weeks ago in response to a plummeting currency and skyrocketing inflation, Iran’s government has faced protests on a scale that has dwarfed previous rounds of Iranian protests. These uprisings represent an existential threat to Iran’s theocratic regime — which explains Iran’s attempt at a brutal, violent crackdown.
Not to worry, however, because Donald Trump is on the case! According to the New York Times’ Abdi Latif Dahir and Leily Nikounazar, Trump is taking his demands to social media:
President Trump called on Iranians on Tuesday to keep protesting against their government and warned that those responsible for killing demonstrators would “pay a big price.”
His remark, on Truth Social, came just hours after Iranians were able to make international calls for the first time in days despite an ongoing internet blackout that has slowed the flow of information out of the country and obscured the severity of a crackdown on antigovernment protests. Mr. Trump also declared that he had canceled meetings with Iranian officials.
“Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING — TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!,” Mr. Trump wrote. “Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!!”
Mr. Trump has threatened to intervene militarily in Iran on behalf of the protesters if the authorities use lethal force against them.
Let’s proceed on the assumption that Trump’s exhortations alone are unlikely to generate an opposition movement willing to risk life and limb to take over key institutions. If moral suasion does not work, what other influence instruments does President Trump have at his disposal? I mean, he’s the president of the United States, surely there are other ways of pressuring or cajoling Iran, right?
Two Politico stories suggest that Trump’s policy options are not great. First, Jack Detsch, Paul McLeary and Joe Gould report that U.S. military options towards Iran are more circumscribed than they were even back in June — in no small part because the U.S. has deployed those assets elsewhere:
The Trump administration has insisted it has numerous military options to deploy against Iran if the regime uses force against demonstrators.
But that menu is far more limited than it was even a year ago.
The U.S. troops and ships that were once at the president’s disposal have shifted to the Caribbean. A major American defense system sent to the Middle East last year has returned to South Korea. And administration officials say there are no plans for the movement of major assets.
The president can still order airstrikes that target Iranian leadership or military installations. But his choices are even more reduced than June, when the U.S. took out Iran’s nuclear sites….
The Trump administration also has been eating away at dwindling U.S. weapons stockpiles with the fast pace of military operations in the Red Sea, Iran and Venezuela.
The bottleneck has become particularly stark for air defense that protects U.S. forces within range of Iran’s weapons. If the administration strikes and Iranians retaliate forcefully, the U.S. may have a limited stockpile of interceptors to defend American forces against Tehran’s formidable rocket and missile arsenal. The Pentagon stations 10,000 U.S. troops at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar and smaller groupings in Iraq, Syria and Jordan.
“If it does become a longer-term volley of strikes, then your interceptor capacity becomes all the more important,” said a former defense official who, like others interviewed, was granted anonymity to discuss national security matters. “We could get in a sticky situation very quickly on that front.”
This might explain why Iran has sounded more bellicose this time around in response to Trump’s military threats.
If U.S. guns are limited, what about U.S. soft power? Wait, don’t laugh, what about it? Sure, the hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World declared it dead last year, but maybe that was an exaggeration, eight?
Right?
Politico’s Ben Johansen, Sophia Cai and Irie Sentner write that even now, the Trump administration’s winnowing of U.S, soft power resources hamper the administration’s ability to wield influence inside of Iran:
Two House Republicans are urging the U.S. to make better use of international broadcasting — particularly Voice of America — after the recent American military intervention in Venezuela and President Donald Trump’s threat to strike Iran.
“The Iranian regime shut down the internet because they fear the truth. They don’t want Iranians to know about the regime’s brutal repression, President Trump’s efforts to advance peace, or the scale and success of the brave protests,” said Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), former chair of the Committee on Homeland Security.
“This is exactly why U.S. international broadcasting exists. Now is the time to fully implement and resource our capabilities — including VOA Persian, Radio Farda, and the Open Technology Fund — to ensure the regime cannot cut its people off from the truth,” McCaul added.
VOA’s Persian and Farsi language services, which served Iranian audiences, as well as OTF — which funded access to uncensored internet — were dramatically scaled back by the Trump administration’s executive order last year to reduce the U.S. Agency for Global Media “to the minimum extent consistent with law.”
Even after Trump’s latest international forays, the cuts have continued. USAGM CEO Kari Lake this week blocked Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty — two other U.S.-funded international broadcasters under USAGM management — from using a USAGM transmitter in Kuwait to broadcast updates from the Iran protests, according to two USAGM employees placed on administrative leave and granted anonymity to discuss VOA’s actions….
In a statement, Lake defended the coverage decisions, pointing to VOA’s services in Cuba. The Trump administration expects the Cuban government to fall because of its past reliance on Venezuela.
“Reforms to USAGM have allowed all of our entities to serve our core purposes more effectively without bureaucracy and bloat. Voice of America and the Office of Cuba Broadcasting surged coverage immediately, expanded reporting across every platform, and continue to ramp up coverage as events warrant,” Lake said.
She did not comment on coverage in Iran.
Trump was extraordinarily lucky in using maximum pressure efforts on Venezuela. But as the Iran case reveals, there are some limits on Trump’s ability to employ American influence. Some pillars of American power cannot be deployed in two places at the same time; Trump himself has kneecapped other pillars.
The United States can’t use maximum pressure on Iran. At best, the Trump administration can apply modest pressure — and post a lot on social media.
Trump is speaking loudly while carrying a small stick... and proffering zero carrots. I guess we’ll see if that has any effect.