1. A lot of pessimistic Western commentary on China’s economy hasn’t panned out in the past, so it’s hard to know whether “this time is different.”
2. If China’s slowdown gets worse, and lasts a long time, then its role as one of history’s greatest anti-poverty engines may be coming to an end.
3. The flip side of China’s poverty reduction achievements is its horrible human rights record, and I wonder whether a slowdown would make that violent dimension of Chinese government policy better or worse.
4. To the extent that economic growth correlates with democratization, both Xi’s regime in Beijing, and the Biden administration in Washington, may be postponing a potentially positive political transition.
5. Tyler Cowen likes to ask whether pessimists are short the market. For U.S. China hawks who are constantly worrying about military conflict, my question is are you pro-preemptive war. And if not, why not?
Per 4, do I understand correctly that you find Biden's administration to get low marks on an overall democracy score?
If yes, why? That's quite the unfounded broadside imho, unless you're coming at it from a pox on all their corrupt houses perspective when considering US political partiea writ large. Because in comparison to today's GOP, Biden's Dems are golden boyscouts.
Hi Mike: Thanks for engaging. Personally, I’m not a Biden fan, but I certainly agree that in the context of America’s domestic politics he’s infinitely more pro-democracy than the GOP alternatives. With China, however, he shares the GOP’s desire to limit its economic prosperity by restricting access to cutting edge semiconductors and similar measures. Consequently, in so far as one thinks that rising levels of per-capita income correlate with higher odds of democratization, it’s arguable that Biden is assisting Xi’s efforts to maintain the authoritarian primacy of China’s communist party by helping to limit China’s economic development.
Thank you for the clarification Sean, I see I had misunderstood your point.
Would it be reasonable in your view for a US administration to limit strategic exports to China while otherwise supporting continued trade and investment flows?
The wide-ranging sanctions against Russia after it renewed its invasion of Ukraine last year really scared me. Punishing Putin and his cronies - definitely; helping Ukraine to blow up Russian tanks and kill Russian soldiers - reluctantly yes, because the self defense logic is clear. But punishing an entire country for the decisions of a single person - for me, that’s a bridge too far. Consequently, I favor enhanced globalization, matched with greater investments in the local defense capabilities of countries like Ukraine and Taiwan. Basically, to answer your question directly, I’m not a fan of national security exceptions to economic policy. If I had the power, China would have the latest chips.
Five thoughts on China’s slowdown:
1. A lot of pessimistic Western commentary on China’s economy hasn’t panned out in the past, so it’s hard to know whether “this time is different.”
2. If China’s slowdown gets worse, and lasts a long time, then its role as one of history’s greatest anti-poverty engines may be coming to an end.
3. The flip side of China’s poverty reduction achievements is its horrible human rights record, and I wonder whether a slowdown would make that violent dimension of Chinese government policy better or worse.
4. To the extent that economic growth correlates with democratization, both Xi’s regime in Beijing, and the Biden administration in Washington, may be postponing a potentially positive political transition.
5. Tyler Cowen likes to ask whether pessimists are short the market. For U.S. China hawks who are constantly worrying about military conflict, my question is are you pro-preemptive war. And if not, why not?
Per 4, do I understand correctly that you find Biden's administration to get low marks on an overall democracy score?
If yes, why? That's quite the unfounded broadside imho, unless you're coming at it from a pox on all their corrupt houses perspective when considering US political partiea writ large. Because in comparison to today's GOP, Biden's Dems are golden boyscouts.
Hi Mike: Thanks for engaging. Personally, I’m not a Biden fan, but I certainly agree that in the context of America’s domestic politics he’s infinitely more pro-democracy than the GOP alternatives. With China, however, he shares the GOP’s desire to limit its economic prosperity by restricting access to cutting edge semiconductors and similar measures. Consequently, in so far as one thinks that rising levels of per-capita income correlate with higher odds of democratization, it’s arguable that Biden is assisting Xi’s efforts to maintain the authoritarian primacy of China’s communist party by helping to limit China’s economic development.
Thank you for the clarification Sean, I see I had misunderstood your point.
Would it be reasonable in your view for a US administration to limit strategic exports to China while otherwise supporting continued trade and investment flows?
The wide-ranging sanctions against Russia after it renewed its invasion of Ukraine last year really scared me. Punishing Putin and his cronies - definitely; helping Ukraine to blow up Russian tanks and kill Russian soldiers - reluctantly yes, because the self defense logic is clear. But punishing an entire country for the decisions of a single person - for me, that’s a bridge too far. Consequently, I favor enhanced globalization, matched with greater investments in the local defense capabilities of countries like Ukraine and Taiwan. Basically, to answer your question directly, I’m not a fan of national security exceptions to economic policy. If I had the power, China would have the latest chips.