The Strategic Costs of the Gaza War
Or, how Israel is losing America after two years of bloodshed.
Hey, remember two months ago, when I wrote something for Politico about how Israel was hemorrhaging American public support? Remember when I said this?
Strategically and militarily, Israel is more powerful in the Middle East now than at any time in this century.
The price Israel has paid for these military successes, however, is considerable. The erosion of public support could have long-lasting effects on Israel and its relationship with vital allies….
In a lot of ways the elite discontent over Israel’s actions in Gaza trails the growing public discontent. Pew’s data shows that global public opinion on Israel has soured in recent years. Gallup’s data shows that immediately after the Oct. 7 attacks, a majority of Americans approved of Israel’s military actions in Gaza. Last month, that same question swung the other way, with only 32 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval. YouGov’s polling reveals that a plurality of Americans now support decreasing military aid to Israel. With both progressive activists on the left and MAGA isolationists on the right railing about Israel’s bellicosity and culpability, it will be difficult for Israel to cajole Congress into offering further support. Once criticism of a country becomes bipartisan, the taboo against further criticism crumbles….
The bigger problem is over the medium to long term. Israel faces some real risks from winning the war on the ground and losing the war of the words. If only Nixon could go to China, then only Trump can bash Israel and live to tell the tale. It is possible that if MAGA’s outrage over U.S. involvement in the Middle East grows, Trump might change his tune. It is also worth noting that as time passes, more and more Americans will feel less of an attachment to Israel. The polling suggests that even among young evangelicals, support for Israel has plummeted.
Today marks the second anniversary of the horrific October 7th Hamas attacks on Israel and the subsequent brutality that Israel has wreaked on Gaza. How have things progressed since I wrote my Politico piece?
Well, the elite erosion has undeniably continued. Kamala Harris revealed her differences with Joe Biden on the war in Gaza in her campaign memoir. Phil Gordon, Harris’ national security advisor, acknowledged on a Foreign Affairs podcast that the Biden administration’s humanitarian response, “was a policy failure. You can’t conclude anything else.” Last week Politico’s Nahal Toosi wrote about former Biden administration officials processing how they handled Israel: “a growing number of top Biden aides have gone public with reflections on how they handled the war. In op-eds, podcasts and other venues, several have offered takes that range from ‘we did the best we could’ to ‘we could have done better.’…. Some officials will blame Biden in private, gently, and if you read between the lines of their public commentary, it’s implied.”
Meanwhile, Axios’ Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo reported over the weekend that Netanyahu’s initially cool reaction to Hamas on Trump’s peace plan caused the president to lash out:
“Bibi told Trump this is nothing to celebrate, and that it doesn’t mean anything,” a U.S. official with knowledge of the call told Axios.
Trump fired back: “I don’t know why you’re always so f***ing negative. This is a win. Take it.”
The exchange, which a second U.S. official confirmed, reflects how determined Trump is to push through Netanyahu’s reservations, and convince him to end the war if Hamas will make a deal….
Shortly after the call with Netanyahu, Trump issued a statement calling on Israel to halt its air strikes in Gaza. Three hours later, Netanyahu gave the order.
As I explained back in August, Netanyahu now has almost no ability to resist Trump. With global public opinion cratering on Israel and an American public growing more and more hostile to Israel as the war has progressed, Trump has little to lose by bullying Netanyahu — and a fair amount to gain. It’s perfectly consistent with Trump’s willingness to punish allies. Trump told Axios this weekend, “[Netanyahu’s] got to be fine with it. He has no choice. With me, you got to be fine.” This led the New York Times’ Isabel Kershner to write, “Mr. Netanyahu is in no position to defy Mr. Trump while facing international censure over Israel’s conduct in the war and growing international isolation, analysts say, increasing its reliance on the United States.”
And this leads us to look at how American public attitudes towards Israel have continued to deteriorate. According to Jewish Insider, “the U.S.-Israel alliance has come under strain from growing forces on the far left and right who wish to see an end to American military support for Israel.” According to public opinion polls, it’s way more than the far left and far right.
