The Tale of Two General Election Campaigns Continues
Variations on a continuing theme.
Last month I wrote about the contrasting styles of the Trump and Harris campaigns. In short, Harris was campaigning on big themes and minimal policy details, while Trump was campaigning on the world being horrible and making transactional promises to various fringe subcultures to try to bring them on board:
Harris’ general election campaign will be light on policy minutiae, heavy on lofty ideals, and very heavy on sweat equity. The campaign seems bound and determined to use its army of surrogates, massive war chest and army of volunteers to outwork and outhustle Trump’s campaign….
Trump’s general election campaign will be heavy on [attempts at] policy discussions, heavy on economy-bashing, heavy on media availabilities, light on lofty ideals, and surprisingly light on sweat equity. The campaign has outsourced a lot of its ground game, so it makes some sense to rely on media availabilities and warning that the world will end under Harris as a political strategy. The point is, Trump is not campaigning all that vigorously compared to his previous runs.
Does this mean Harris is gonna thump Trump?! While the hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World would really like to see that, there is another dimension to Trump’s campaign that needs to be considered: his overt efforts to buy out the weird vote.
Throughout his campaign, Trump has demonstrated both willingness and interest in switching positions if doing so nets him a particular constituency or large campaign contributions.
My examples at the time included libertarians, crypto-enthusiasts, and RFK Jr. supporters.
A month later, what do we know about the two campaigns? That they are continuing to do the exact same things!
To be fair, Kamala Harris has rolled out a few specific policy proposals and started to do press interviews. Clearly more of these are in the works. But even in her recent interviews, Harris is not breaking much new ground. A lot of these appearances are about introducing herself to voters. Take the WIRED interview she did a few days ago:
Furthermore, as Axios’ Neal Rothschild notes, the Harris-Walz campaign is making a conservative culture play in much of its messaging, adopting themes that used to be the province of the right but now seem up for grabs:
The appeals aim to convey that Democrats are not trying to undo a conservative way of life, and that red and blue Americas are not immutably divided by culture.
At this month's debate, Harris surprised many by saying that she is a gun owner, and in an interview with Oprah this week said, "If somebody breaks into my house, they're getting shot."….
Harris' campaign launch video was centered around "freedom," a pervasive conservative rallying cry for resisting liberal policies on taxation, gun control and government regulation.
Harris and Walz are using it to advocate for abortion rights and fight interventionist policies like school book bans and curriculum directives….
The Harris campaign is hoping that by showing welcoming arms for conservative identity, right-leaning voters will loosen steadfast liberals-are-from-Mars beliefs and evaluate the candidates based on policies that affect them, like reproductive rights and economic assistance programs.
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign is continuing to flip-flop on policy in order to cater to targeted groups. The Washington Post’s Isaac Stanley-Becker and Dan Diamond reported this weekend on Trump’s latest policy switch — this time, on vaping:
Former president Donald Trump offered enthusiastic support for vaping on Friday, promising to protect the industry following a private meeting earlier in the day with a leading vaping lobbyist.
Trump wrote on Truth Social, his social media platform, that he “saved Flavored Vaping in 2019” and would “save Vaping again!”
The comments represent a revisionist account of his administration’s approach to vaping, the heating of nicotine to make an inhaled aerosol. They overlook a significant crackdown Trump pursued as president — which antismoking advocates regard as one of the surprising accomplishments of his time in office and part of the reason for a steep decline in youth vaping over the past five years.
Yet Trump’s new posture is consistent with the recent financial support he has received from the tobacco industry. As The Washington Post reported this week, the biggest corporate donor to the primary pro-Trump super PAC is a subsidiary of Reynolds American, the second-largest tobacco company in the country….
Trump’s comments also offer a case study in the way he takes policy positions.
His fulsome praise for vaping came just after a meeting with the head of the Vapor Technology Association, which describes itself as the leading vaping trade association, representing more than 100 members of the industry….
Public health officials and experts — including Trump administration alumni — have cheered a retreat in youth vaping that began under Trump. Data released by federal officials in early September found that about 6 percent of middle and high school students reported currently using e-cigarettes this year, a roughly two-third decline since 2019.
Which strategy will work? We won’t know until November, though recent polling and financial disclosures suggest that Harris is in the stronger position.
Developing…
I'm always puzzled by these claims about Harris' lack of policies. No one ever made this complaint about the Biden-Harris campaign, which is now the Harris-Walz campaign. Did Biden's withdrawal wipe the policy slate clean?
We'll know in November if Harris loses. If she wins, we won't know until January. I truly believe that the Trump campaign will attempt to get state legislatures to interfere with the EC and try to kick it to the house. Or even to use ops, payoffs, and threats to create faithless electors.