Three Ways of Looking at U.S. Deterrence During Trump 2.0
Another super-cheery column from me for World Politics Review!
The hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World has been in Washington, DC for the past few days to handle some day-job responsibilities — hence the lack of newsletters.
More on my DC experiences over the weekend. In the interim, please to read my latest World Politics Review essay, “Getting Out of Trump’s Way Could Be Russia and China’s Best Bet.” It asks the question of whether Trump can actually deter Russia and China — like Trump and his acolytes claimed repeatedly during the 2024 election — or whether Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin will continue to take aggressive actions in their neighborhoods and across the globe.
My column proffers three scenarios. The good news is that in two of those three scenarios neither China nor Russia take provocative actions. The bad news is that in two of three scenarios, Russia and China profit enormously from Trump’s second term — and not in ways that benefit the United States.
Please read the whole thing to see why (that link should work for everyone). But I close the essay with this possibility: that neither Russia nor China decide to take any provocative action while Trump is president because Trump so weakens America’s standing in the world that their best option is let Trump do whatever he wants:
If this scenario proves to be correct, neither Putin nor Xi will feel the need to engage in provocative actions against the U.S. while Trump is president. This would not be because Trump has restored U.S. deterrence. Rather, it would be that, with the Trump administration doing everything possible to self-sabotage U.S. influence, Russia and China decide to take Napoleon Bonaparte’s famous maxim to heart: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
So… yeah.
The deterrence now is “what do you have on Trump” or how much you’ll pay him.
Other than that he doesn’t want to be bothered.
Xi could give him some shiny beads to invade Taiwan or - and Trump would turn his back on Taiwan, Japan, Korea, the Philippines, maybe even Hawaii.
The fact that most of the Western Democracies in Europe would destroy the Russian Army is the deterrent there.
Russia’s awful military performance in Ukraine has been a real eye opener.
It is for Americans to undo what they have done by appointing a criminal fraudster to the office of POTUS.
If one side fails to abide by the rule of law - it is an interesting choice for those that oppose a dictatorship to limit their options 🤷♂️🚨