I agree with your point overall, but I think Occam’s razor applies to Putin: he’s simply lying about preferring Biden. He has a massive short-term interest in Trump getting elected so he has a clear path to conquering Ukraine. The Chinese, OTOH, probably are concerned about the world wide chaos Trump would cause. Incidentally, it boggles my mind that the US business community seems so unconcerned about this. Time was businessmen wanted stability for pragmatic reasons: it’s good for business. These days, however, all they seem to care about are tax cuts and deregulation. They’re as short-term oriented as Putin.
When Putin made that comment back in February, I was half convinced he was just trolling Americans, as usual. But his desire for more predictable outcomes is obviously a more salient rationale - maybe?
I go with the troll hypothesis. Putin’s interest in Trump’s election is obvious. Biden will continue to work with Europe to support Ukraine, while Trump will hand Ukraine over to Russia and work to undermine NATO.
But the how of what he’d do is the part that sets the world on edge about our upcoming election. It’s one thing for him to bloviate, but when it comes down to what actions he would and CAN take, that’s where the uncertainty - from all sides - comes into play. Ergo, Putin says he’d prefer Biden because he’s known Joe for the last 25 years and he’s known the team around him for 15 and thinks he knows how to play the game with them. Donald is a lunatic and everybody knows it.
Trump has a mancrush on Putin, and Putin prefers to keep Trump in the one-down position. On the other hand, he does want to maintain a stable, if frosty, relationship with Biden so things don't spiral out of control. Basically he negged Trump, and will continue to do so, because he is aware that Trump is an idiot. So that's likely the genesis of that remark.
Meantime, rhetoric aside, the Chinese can see that Trump is bribeable. The interesting thing to me is that they just don't seem to care all that much about Russia and NATO. They're firmly focused on the eastern Pacific, the United States, and their export markets. (Also, they do seem to want friendly relations with most, sp as to keep those exports going out and the technological acquisitions rolling in.)
Minus Trump, we seem to have a stable equilibrium here.
elm
the great international arm-wrestling contest continues
"any survey ... will find that he only secured meaningful concessions from states that are asymmetrically vulnerable to U.S. pressure. And neither Russia nor China are asymmetrically vunerable."
Trump reset trading with China. They were vulnerable to that.
There was a massive shift. Phase One upended virtually every aspect of our relations, providing a fairer deal from aluminum to farm commodities. Now, if you're an anti-treaty guy, that's fine. But be aware you're bucking both parties.
I agree with your point overall, but I think Occam’s razor applies to Putin: he’s simply lying about preferring Biden. He has a massive short-term interest in Trump getting elected so he has a clear path to conquering Ukraine. The Chinese, OTOH, probably are concerned about the world wide chaos Trump would cause. Incidentally, it boggles my mind that the US business community seems so unconcerned about this. Time was businessmen wanted stability for pragmatic reasons: it’s good for business. These days, however, all they seem to care about are tax cuts and deregulation. They’re as short-term oriented as Putin.
When Putin made that comment back in February, I was half convinced he was just trolling Americans, as usual. But his desire for more predictable outcomes is obviously a more salient rationale - maybe?
I go with the troll hypothesis. Putin’s interest in Trump’s election is obvious. Biden will continue to work with Europe to support Ukraine, while Trump will hand Ukraine over to Russia and work to undermine NATO.
But the how of what he’d do is the part that sets the world on edge about our upcoming election. It’s one thing for him to bloviate, but when it comes down to what actions he would and CAN take, that’s where the uncertainty - from all sides - comes into play. Ergo, Putin says he’d prefer Biden because he’s known Joe for the last 25 years and he’s known the team around him for 15 and thinks he knows how to play the game with them. Donald is a lunatic and everybody knows it.
This all feels like BS to me. Both China and Russia prefer Trump because he can be bought. It’s really that simple.
True, but single-DJT is not an honest politician. An honest politician is one who, when he's been bought, stays bought.
Trump has a mancrush on Putin, and Putin prefers to keep Trump in the one-down position. On the other hand, he does want to maintain a stable, if frosty, relationship with Biden so things don't spiral out of control. Basically he negged Trump, and will continue to do so, because he is aware that Trump is an idiot. So that's likely the genesis of that remark.
Meantime, rhetoric aside, the Chinese can see that Trump is bribeable. The interesting thing to me is that they just don't seem to care all that much about Russia and NATO. They're firmly focused on the eastern Pacific, the United States, and their export markets. (Also, they do seem to want friendly relations with most, sp as to keep those exports going out and the technological acquisitions rolling in.)
Minus Trump, we seem to have a stable equilibrium here.
elm
the great international arm-wrestling contest continues
"any survey ... will find that he only secured meaningful concessions from states that are asymmetrically vulnerable to U.S. pressure. And neither Russia nor China are asymmetrically vunerable."
Trump reset trading with China. They were vulnerable to that.
Um... er... exactly what concessions did China make?
The same the Biden admin endorses. Have you forgotten the wild fight we had? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war
And I will ask again: what meaningful concessions were extracted from this trade war?
There was a massive shift. Phase One upended virtually every aspect of our relations, providing a fairer deal from aluminum to farm commodities. Now, if you're an anti-treaty guy, that's fine. But be aware you're bucking both parties.
I don't care what the parties think about this, I care about what concessions Trump allegedly extracted from the trade war. And I see none. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/china-bought-none-extra-200-billion-us-exports-trumps-trade-deal
I can cite the opposite. And around we go. China's still fighting the treaty. Doesn't that tell you something?