Trump absolutely looks weak, but I can't imagine anything happening in the next few months that would change how people in the GOP feel about him. He seems overwhelmingly likely to be the nominee.
I agree that Trump is very unlikely to win the general election. But if Trump is nominated, he's in the game. And then he could take advantage if some kind of strange event happens.
Just to give one scenario... what if Biden suffers a moderately serious health event next summer (something like what happened to McConnell did the other day)? It's not farfetched.
If that happened, we'd get several weeks or months of fevered speculation about Biden's age and health, about Kamala Harris' popularity and fitness to take over, etc. etc. In the Fox News universe, people will become convinced that Biden's really brain dead and the Dems are pulling a vast Weekend at Bernie's conspiracy.
Let's imagine that, around the same time, something positive happens for Trump. Maybe he is acquitted in one of his court cases. Again, not all that farfetched.
The acquittals are trumpeted as huge "wins" for Trump, Trump's antics fade out of the spotlight, just enough Dems and independents are dissuaded from turning out to vote for someone who seems like he's ailing, and Trump, though he loses the popular vote, edges Biden in a couple of swing states.
The above is unlikely, but quite plausible. There are a lot of other ways that Trump could conceivably win, too, even though the odds are very much against him... that's what worries me.
I agree with your analysis and think Trump is too unpopular with independents and too good at motivating soft Democrat supporters to vote to be be better than a 'competetive but losing' candidate in a general election. But given his manifest unfitness for high office it's concerning that he still has some sort of shot at a return in 2024.
Hope so. Still worrisome enough that it makes reading about him(trump)tough. I want to hide. No excuses. Am still a Biden fan. I think he’s done very well. And Kennedy? Well that’s a whole different mess. WTF.
Today the paper tried to emphasize that only 37% of their Republican primary sample is hardcore MAGA will-not-desert-Trump-no-matter-what types. The other 37% who are considering Trump have to coalesce around a not-Trump in order to defeat him which is still possible although unlikely.
You mention dominance and Trump, and it brought to mind the piece I'm linking just below. This is an argument that deserves to be read and thought about by a wide range of people. How seriously to take it is an open question!! The author is a conservative.
What DesAntis should do is debate Newsom at his request and a week later debate RFJ, Jr. Sean Hannity can arrange both. It would be good for our Republics democracy.
It would also revitalize his campaign before the GOP debates.
This is the public-sphere equivalent of a bad trip, I guess. This was about the point in 2015 where every political scientist I know was telling me not to worry because Trump couldn't get the nomination and if he did couldn't possibly win the general. One colleague offered to buy me a copy of The Party Decides if I didn't feel like getting it from the library; "it will make you worry less and be less uninformed in your worrying".
I do find it kind of astonishing that a race that I think a large fraction of voters ardently do not want is being envisioned by both party leaderships as inevitable.
I understand your caution, but this was also the point in 2019 when the inevitability of Trump's re-election was being bandied about and Joe Biden looked like he was flailing on the campaign trail.
Do you think that Trump, realizing that he could serve jail time, might throw his support to someone like Nikki Haley or Tim Scott who might agree to pardon him in exchange for his support?
He'd never do it preemptively, but don't you think that would be pretty much inevitable in the even he is beaten in the primary? His biggest card is threatening to tank the GOP in 24 by encouraging MAGA not to vote for the Republican unless they cave to his demands
That only-20%-of-the-electorate-thinks-the-economy-is-excellent-or-good statistic is very scary though.
Trump absolutely looks weak, but I can't imagine anything happening in the next few months that would change how people in the GOP feel about him. He seems overwhelmingly likely to be the nominee.
I agree that Trump is very unlikely to win the general election. But if Trump is nominated, he's in the game. And then he could take advantage if some kind of strange event happens.
Just to give one scenario... what if Biden suffers a moderately serious health event next summer (something like what happened to McConnell did the other day)? It's not farfetched.
If that happened, we'd get several weeks or months of fevered speculation about Biden's age and health, about Kamala Harris' popularity and fitness to take over, etc. etc. In the Fox News universe, people will become convinced that Biden's really brain dead and the Dems are pulling a vast Weekend at Bernie's conspiracy.
Let's imagine that, around the same time, something positive happens for Trump. Maybe he is acquitted in one of his court cases. Again, not all that farfetched.
The acquittals are trumpeted as huge "wins" for Trump, Trump's antics fade out of the spotlight, just enough Dems and independents are dissuaded from turning out to vote for someone who seems like he's ailing, and Trump, though he loses the popular vote, edges Biden in a couple of swing states.
The above is unlikely, but quite plausible. There are a lot of other ways that Trump could conceivably win, too, even though the odds are very much against him... that's what worries me.
I agree with your analysis and think Trump is too unpopular with independents and too good at motivating soft Democrat supporters to vote to be be better than a 'competetive but losing' candidate in a general election. But given his manifest unfitness for high office it's concerning that he still has some sort of shot at a return in 2024.
The Wimp Factor, by Stephen Ducat, explained twenty years ago the source of the “sissy/underpants” sentiment underlying much of right wing psychology.
Trumps unfavorable is at 63%. Don’t tell maga morons United, this will disturb them.
A Trump presidency would truly be a nightmare for this country. Division, hate, chaos, unstable government, We can't afford to let this monster win
Hope so. Still worrisome enough that it makes reading about him(trump)tough. I want to hide. No excuses. Am still a Biden fan. I think he’s done very well. And Kennedy? Well that’s a whole different mess. WTF.
Today the paper tried to emphasize that only 37% of their Republican primary sample is hardcore MAGA will-not-desert-Trump-no-matter-what types. The other 37% who are considering Trump have to coalesce around a not-Trump in order to defeat him which is still possible although unlikely.
Does this analysis hold up if Manchin runs?
You mention dominance and Trump, and it brought to mind the piece I'm linking just below. This is an argument that deserves to be read and thought about by a wide range of people. How seriously to take it is an open question!! The author is a conservative.
https://www.richardhanania.com/p/desantis-should-challenge-trump-to
No, that’s stupid.
What DesAntis should do is debate Newsom at his request and a week later debate RFJ, Jr. Sean Hannity can arrange both. It would be good for our Republics democracy.
It would also revitalize his campaign before the GOP debates.
This is the public-sphere equivalent of a bad trip, I guess. This was about the point in 2015 where every political scientist I know was telling me not to worry because Trump couldn't get the nomination and if he did couldn't possibly win the general. One colleague offered to buy me a copy of The Party Decides if I didn't feel like getting it from the library; "it will make you worry less and be less uninformed in your worrying".
I do find it kind of astonishing that a race that I think a large fraction of voters ardently do not want is being envisioned by both party leaderships as inevitable.
I understand your caution, but this was also the point in 2019 when the inevitability of Trump's re-election was being bandied about and Joe Biden looked like he was flailing on the campaign trail.
We need America’s Gov.
Trump is a moron. We are doomed if it’s Biden vs Trump. Trump is clueless.
Do you think that Trump, realizing that he could serve jail time, might throw his support to someone like Nikki Haley or Tim Scott who might agree to pardon him in exchange for his support?
No.
He'd never do it preemptively, but don't you think that would be pretty much inevitable in the even he is beaten in the primary? His biggest card is threatening to tank the GOP in 24 by encouraging MAGA not to vote for the Republican unless they cave to his demands