While there's significant overlap between Farrell's and Drezner's arguments, I'm with Henry on this one. The key variable here is state capacity. Over time (guesstimate: 18 mos), the ability of US government organs to enact anything resembling "economic statecraft"-- coercive or otherwise--will diminish considerably. Govt departments & agencies will experience a brain drain and whoever is left will be demoralized. Money will be siphoned away from government functions and into various pockets, foreign and domestic.
The gates have been opened to the Vandals and the Visigoths. People said, "Fuck the Romans, they're hedonistic, blood-thirsty assholes!"
And unlike the incoming hordes of blood-thirsty assholes. . . the Romans knew how to build aqueducts.
Trump is listening to ONE Technocrat - Musk. My gut instinct is that the SCOTUS move against the TikTok ban law was against Trumps anti-China stance and would only benefit Musk in his relations with Beijing.
With any Trump move there is only one rule - who benefits; FOLLOW THE MONEY.
Declaring a Bi-Partisan bill unconstitutional on 1st Amendment grounds on the basis that an incoming President would do it differently is both a hugely dangerous transition precedent and a knock against separation of powers between Congress and the Executive.
SCOTUS will need to balance national security needs for the ban too - what should be overriding in this case?!?
While there's significant overlap between Farrell's and Drezner's arguments, I'm with Henry on this one. The key variable here is state capacity. Over time (guesstimate: 18 mos), the ability of US government organs to enact anything resembling "economic statecraft"-- coercive or otherwise--will diminish considerably. Govt departments & agencies will experience a brain drain and whoever is left will be demoralized. Money will be siphoned away from government functions and into various pockets, foreign and domestic.
The gates have been opened to the Vandals and the Visigoths. People said, "Fuck the Romans, they're hedonistic, blood-thirsty assholes!"
And unlike the incoming hordes of blood-thirsty assholes. . . the Romans knew how to build aqueducts.
So much for baths.
Interest rates are going to go straight up Like one of musky's rockets....
Trump is listening to ONE Technocrat - Musk. My gut instinct is that the SCOTUS move against the TikTok ban law was against Trumps anti-China stance and would only benefit Musk in his relations with Beijing.
With any Trump move there is only one rule - who benefits; FOLLOW THE MONEY.
Declaring a Bi-Partisan bill unconstitutional on 1st Amendment grounds on the basis that an incoming President would do it differently is both a hugely dangerous transition precedent and a knock against separation of powers between Congress and the Executive.
SCOTUS will need to balance national security needs for the ban too - what should be overriding in this case?!?