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David E Lewis's avatar

The Brazilians were ready for Trump. They passed a reciprocity law in April with him in mind.

"The Law authorizes the Executive Branch in coordination with the private sector “to adopt countermeasures in the form of restrictions on imports of goods and services or measures to suspend trade concessions, investments, and obligations relating to intellectual property rights, and measures to suspend other obligations provided for in any of the country’s trade agreements”.

In other words, it is an instrument that allows the adoption of potential economic retaliation by the Brazilian government to mitigate the impact on economic activity and avoid disproportionate administrative burdens and costs. On the other hand, the rule itself points out that diplomatic consultations will be held with aiming to mitigating or annulling the effects of the measures and countermeasures in question. "

https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/brazilian-economic-reciprocity-law-is-published-to-safeguard-brazilian-interests-against-unilateral-measures-adopted-by-other-countries-or-economic-blocs/

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Lee's avatar

Not sure Americans, even Trump hating liberal Americans understand just how despised Trump is in the rest of the world, especially among historic US allies, a mid ranking shadow minister in the conservative coalition going into the last election used the phrase ‘Make Australia Great Again’ and it was seen as an election defining gaffe that even her own leader backed away from. For all those people like me, who have spent decades defending America and the US alliance, the Trump years have seen us completely on the back foot. Not just because Trump is terrible and hated, but that he is terrible in specific ways that give America haters all the proof they need that America has always been a force for ill that is full of terrible people. America defenders could write off 2016 as an electoral college aberration, but with him winning a plurality in 24 the America haters have spent the last 8 months peacocking about the place claiming complete vindication for their long held philolosophy that the US is a terrible place, filled with terrible people that is a uniquely terrible and negative influence on the world

It’s not enough for the Dems to sneak out a close win in 28, unless they win an LBJ or Reagan level landslide then those voices in countries like Australia who say that America is just as bad as China but at least China is predictable and our economy is tied much more strongly to them anyway so let’s stop pretending we share values with Americans that justify the economic pain of upsetting China are going to find their arguments landing in much more fertile ground than has been the case for the last 30 years

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US Blues's avatar

All of donnycon’s meddling in other countries’ affairs will not end. My heart breaks at the dismantling of some of the best things the US does overseas with the State Dept.

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Ken Kovar's avatar

And an intensification of our worst: air strikes 😡

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Stephen Saperstein Frug's avatar

In the penultimate paragraph, is "bask" perhaps a typo for "bash"?

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Bryan Fichter's avatar

I'm not sure there's much point in attempting to analyze the actions of a malevolent child.

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sticko's avatar

Everything is so gd stupid all of the time

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Helen Camba's avatar

Dan, glad you had time off, and I hope you got some rest from clutching your pearls. But here you go again grabbing those pearls an embedding your fingerprints on them. Our President is just using economic incentives to produce the out come that he desires. I guess you would rather have him use the CIA facilitate the change in actions on the part of a foreign government as your President Kennedy and Johnson did with great regularity. Do I have to remind you that when The Company gets involved it can get messy real quick, I know economics is a less lethal route.

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sticko's avatar

This is a legit insane post

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Robert McTague's avatar

Dan,

Have you considered using an auto-write feature that, at random number of day intervals, simply publishes/tweets, "So, to sum up: this is a dumb policy in a variety of ways that reveal an array of administration lies but also exposes an awful lot of stupidity as well,"? At worst, it'll make a great out-of-office reply when you next take a vacation.

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Alan Neff's avatar

Government by onsters from the Id. That's what we have unless/until we get rid of it. (Yes, it's a "Forbidden Planet" reference.)

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Charles W. Stotter's avatar

Welcome back from vacation, Professor Drezner, to the hellscape of our country. I believe you are over-thinking it on this topic. Trump has NO foreign policy (national security, trade, environmental or otherwise) besides what will benefit him personally. Birds of a feather flock together - hence Trump's threatening of sanctions on Brazil is not to further any American interests, but to make the world safe for dictators, like his buddy Bolsonaro. And he protects his other buddy, Putin, by refusing to impose more severe sanctions in light of the despicable violence Putin is wreaking on Ukrainian civilians. Why he hasn't imposed sanction yet on Israel for prosecuting his yet third buddy, Netenyahu, is easily explained - he can't afford to alienate the Israel lobby.

So in sum, he is like a bull in a china shop, meting out sanctions here and there with little to no fore-thought, and sometimes backing down, just to satisfy his own personal views and needs, not those of the United States.

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Richard Donnelly's avatar

Is Brazil being fair to us? No. So what do we do? Nothing?

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Alan Neff's avatar

Is Brazil being unfair to us by buying *more* goods and/or services from us than they sell to us? That's how we have a trade surplus with Brazil. I don't understand your comment/questions.

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Richard Donnelly's avatar

There is a slow motion, long term trade war in agriculture, in which Brazil has unfairly manipulated commodities.

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Alan Neff's avatar

Do you have a cite or data as to this bilateral agricultural trade war? Among other issues, are the U.S. agricultural crops in the Brazil-U.S. trade-relationship subsidized by the U.S.? Or are they unsubsidized crops? If that's not accounted for in the bilateral trade, then I can't agree or disagree with you.

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Richard Donnelly's avatar

Thanks Alan I just went on what what I hear from farmers. Brazil is a major manipulator. Maybe we are too. I do know we run a very significant ag deficit with them.

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Alan Neff's avatar

Thanks, Richard. Interesting. FYI, our family's farm produces about 4-5 tons of blueberries a year. (A small crop, and it's not a subsidized commodity, so far as I know).

Absent line-item data (and answers on the subsidies question), it's difficult or impossible to assess your statement has "unfairly manipulated commodities." There is an agricultural deficit with Brazil, but how it's affected by any manipulation is uncertain.

E.g., per Reuters, in July 2025: "However, the U.S. is in a steep deficit when it comes to agricultural trade with Brazil, primarily due to Brazil’s ability to produce coffee, sugar and fruits. More than half of the orange juice consumed in the United States now comes from Brazilian oranges." (Cite: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/thursday-tidbits-us-corn-exports-brazil-tariffs-2025-07-10/#:~:text=USDA's%20current%202025%2D26%20export,year%2C%20nearly%20$2%20billion%20worth.)

The U.S. produces next to no coffee and only a limited sugar crop, if I remember correctly. We produce a lot of oranges, but, owing to different hemispheres, the U.S. and Brazil orange crops probably complement each other, given the demand.

Here's a 2025 report from the USDA this year that you might want to read on our agricultural trade balances and the causes of U.S. agricultural trade strengths and weaknesses: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/agricultural-trade

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Richard Donnelly's avatar

I defer to the expert. However I must say sugar is a major US commodity.

As a blueberry producer, you and I have far more in common than not. I'm a vegan and environmentalist. Don't get me started on big ag.

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