It's a depressing thought that the most optimistic scenario I can come up with is: Netanyahu over-reacts and Biden finally makes a decisive break with him.
So, a well armed country of less than 10 million people will go to war with an equally (conventionally) well armed country of ~90 million people because the leader of the small country is desperate to stay out of prison. While their closest ally has said they won’t support them in any offensive actions against the larger country. Got it.
Unless Bibi’s *PHASE I* is turn Iran to glass, the hard working bees here at the hive fear that Israeli retaliation will be a losing proposition not just for Israel, but the entire world.
Israel is handling Iran wrong, not the US? So many US administrations did absolutely zero when Iran attacked US troops and diplomatic missions, including the US embassy in Baghdad, the Green Zone, etc. Decades of blather by US presidents that Iran should “Make No Mistake” and “They’ll Be Stupid” and “Don’t”, and obviously the Iranians know the US never does a thing in response, no matter what Iran does through its proxies. The US has zero deterrence with Iran - what did Trump say about 100 soldiers with traumatic brain injuries from dozens of ballistic missiles hitting a US army base? That they got injured falling down? Biden is better than his three predecessors and still he’s been very weak from the Iranian perspective. Iran gets to shut down the airspace of the entire Middle East at will, shoot 150 ballistic and cruise missiles across thousands of miles at Israel over the airspace of multiple countries, and the US will do zero and pressure Israel to do zero.
Well, it’s not always zero, because sometimes the US appeases Iran with billions of dollars for no gain at all, like knowingly letting Iran continue to enrich Uranium and basically pay it to lie to the US public as if the bribe achieved anything. The Bush and Obama administrations removed Iran’s buffer in Iraq, let it create a network of militias in Iraq and Syria. The Obama and Trump administrations actually provided air power for Iranian militias in Mosul and Raqqa, instead of letting Sunni and Shia Islamists battle each other into the ground. Worse than zero, with regards to containing Iran. An Iranian spy ship sits in the Red Sea and provides targeting data for "the Houthis, not Iran" (who believes this con anyway) to shoot at international shipping for months, without being sunk.
It's difficult to apply a rational lens to what is going on and has been going on in the Middle East for many decades. Vengeance, hard to attribute the rational modifiers, "calculated or measured" to any of it and still make sense to a normal human being. Madness is afoot and has been for some time. Add to that leaders in all camps who don't seem to be able to walk and chew gum simultaneously and who knows what the next steps will be. Seems impossible to calculate, dear officials and generals and advisors, etc., etc., etc. If Biden breaks with Bibi, Bibi retains the nuclear option. Does his history suggest that in such a case he would not use it? Maybe that's what the dance is all about.
It's a depressing thought that the most optimistic scenario I can come up with is: Netanyahu over-reacts and Biden finally makes a decisive break with him.
So, a well armed country of less than 10 million people will go to war with an equally (conventionally) well armed country of ~90 million people because the leader of the small country is desperate to stay out of prison. While their closest ally has said they won’t support them in any offensive actions against the larger country. Got it.
Unless Bibi’s *PHASE I* is turn Iran to glass, the hard working bees here at the hive fear that Israeli retaliation will be a losing proposition not just for Israel, but the entire world.
Israel is handling Iran wrong, not the US? So many US administrations did absolutely zero when Iran attacked US troops and diplomatic missions, including the US embassy in Baghdad, the Green Zone, etc. Decades of blather by US presidents that Iran should “Make No Mistake” and “They’ll Be Stupid” and “Don’t”, and obviously the Iranians know the US never does a thing in response, no matter what Iran does through its proxies. The US has zero deterrence with Iran - what did Trump say about 100 soldiers with traumatic brain injuries from dozens of ballistic missiles hitting a US army base? That they got injured falling down? Biden is better than his three predecessors and still he’s been very weak from the Iranian perspective. Iran gets to shut down the airspace of the entire Middle East at will, shoot 150 ballistic and cruise missiles across thousands of miles at Israel over the airspace of multiple countries, and the US will do zero and pressure Israel to do zero.
Well, it’s not always zero, because sometimes the US appeases Iran with billions of dollars for no gain at all, like knowingly letting Iran continue to enrich Uranium and basically pay it to lie to the US public as if the bribe achieved anything. The Bush and Obama administrations removed Iran’s buffer in Iraq, let it create a network of militias in Iraq and Syria. The Obama and Trump administrations actually provided air power for Iranian militias in Mosul and Raqqa, instead of letting Sunni and Shia Islamists battle each other into the ground. Worse than zero, with regards to containing Iran. An Iranian spy ship sits in the Red Sea and provides targeting data for "the Houthis, not Iran" (who believes this con anyway) to shoot at international shipping for months, without being sunk.
It's difficult to apply a rational lens to what is going on and has been going on in the Middle East for many decades. Vengeance, hard to attribute the rational modifiers, "calculated or measured" to any of it and still make sense to a normal human being. Madness is afoot and has been for some time. Add to that leaders in all camps who don't seem to be able to walk and chew gum simultaneously and who knows what the next steps will be. Seems impossible to calculate, dear officials and generals and advisors, etc., etc., etc. If Biden breaks with Bibi, Bibi retains the nuclear option. Does his history suggest that in such a case he would not use it? Maybe that's what the dance is all about.