I hope you are right Daniel! That said Russia can't win without offensives and his military now is in a much worse position to carry out offensives than it was 12 months ago.
Fine analysis, but what’s missing is timetable - how long will it take for Putin, Russia to give up? Losing and acknowledging defeat are different things.
Pessimistic take from one of the best Russia experts, Johns Hopkins’ Sergey Radchenko:
Sergey Radchenko
What Will Putin Do Next
….
[reading Putin’s mind]
He knows – and we know – that the war hasn’t gone well for him, so far at least. But nor has it gone disastrously wrong – yet. Russia is holding together. It is adjusting to its new reality of a perpetual conflict with the West. The elites have accepted their fate and rallied around the Tsar.
Putin is betting on his success in a long war. He knows his victory is far from certain. But he reckons that he has a fair chance to weather it out and obtain through methodical brutality and perseverance what he failed to get in a display of chutzpah a year ago.
If this is what he thinks – and it is probably a fair reflection – we, too, need to steel ourselves for a painful struggle that may take years before it is resolved in one way or another. When Putin sees the world through our eyes, does he see unflinching conviction and a willingness to go to the brink? He probably doesn’t. That too contributes to his confidence.
A year on, there is light at the end of the tunnel. It’s Putin burning down his off-ramp as he prepares for a long, long war.
Yes, it will be a long struggle, but the US expended much more blood and treasure on much more pointless wars in the Middle East. You can’t really point to history as an example of the US giving up on any war (proxy or otherwise) easily.
We here in the US are experts on the importance having a plausible theory of victory, cause we waaaay too often have sent GIs to their deaths without one.
I hope you are right Daniel! That said Russia can't win without offensives and his military now is in a much worse position to carry out offensives than it was 12 months ago.
Fine analysis, but what’s missing is timetable - how long will it take for Putin, Russia to give up? Losing and acknowledging defeat are different things.
Pessimistic take from one of the best Russia experts, Johns Hopkins’ Sergey Radchenko:
Sergey Radchenko
What Will Putin Do Next
….
[reading Putin’s mind]
He knows – and we know – that the war hasn’t gone well for him, so far at least. But nor has it gone disastrously wrong – yet. Russia is holding together. It is adjusting to its new reality of a perpetual conflict with the West. The elites have accepted their fate and rallied around the Tsar.
Putin is betting on his success in a long war. He knows his victory is far from certain. But he reckons that he has a fair chance to weather it out and obtain through methodical brutality and perseverance what he failed to get in a display of chutzpah a year ago.
If this is what he thinks – and it is probably a fair reflection – we, too, need to steel ourselves for a painful struggle that may take years before it is resolved in one way or another. When Putin sees the world through our eyes, does he see unflinching conviction and a willingness to go to the brink? He probably doesn’t. That too contributes to his confidence.
A year on, there is light at the end of the tunnel. It’s Putin burning down his off-ramp as he prepares for a long, long war.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-will-putin-do-next/
How long did American support for S Korea last?
Yes, it will be a long struggle, but the US expended much more blood and treasure on much more pointless wars in the Middle East. You can’t really point to history as an example of the US giving up on any war (proxy or otherwise) easily.
We here in the US are experts on the importance having a plausible theory of victory, cause we waaaay too often have sent GIs to their deaths without one.
What are the US and Ukraine's theories of victory?
Outlasting Russia. 1917 came 3 years after 1914. 2025 isn’t here yet.
Thank you