In the end, Biden handled it perfectly: stepping aside and endorsing Harris while calling for the delegates to decide, and *not* resigning as President. In this, you're wrong, Dan. He can handle the last six months of his term and should stay. And forcing Harris to become President would do her absolutely no favors. It's hard enough to suddenly become the (likely) nominee. *At the same time* becoming President would add a burden to a near-impossible one that no one could handle. Her attention would immediately be diverted from building a campaign from scratch to "how are you going to handle Bibi and the whole Gaza mess?"
Someone pointed out that Biden's real opponent was the couch. If he couldn't muster enough enthusiasm to get folks to the polls, he will follow in the footsteps of Hillary and lose in the swing states and the electoral college.
Already everybody particularly women are interested and enthusiastic about the prospect of new hope rather than simply having to hold our nose and vote against Trump. It would be nice to have someone to vote 'for' rather than grudging having to vote against Trump's unfitness for office. Now, the attention will be on Trump's cognitive capacities rather than Biden's senescence.
I think Trump was not expecting Harris because he couldn't imagine someone walking away for the good of the nation. His brain is incapable of processing that thought.
Disagree with you about the importance of the VP nominee. Though KH has widespread name recognition, little else is known about her (other than maybe she was a prior prosecutor in CA & a pretty bad presidential candidate) among the general populace. A widely known & popular no. 2 on the ticket could help draw in potential voters. My personal favorite (& one of my senators) is AZ's Mark Kelly, Naval aviation combat veteran, former astronaut, & very popular senator from an important swing state. Also, he would balance the ticket both gender- & race-wise which could cause reluctant white dudes to have a look. Plus AZ's governor is a D who could name a D to replace him.
Kelly's definitely a good choice. Shapiro seems like a solid pick as well (though one minor downside of that -- the Dem LtGov would become Gov, but the Republican State Senate pres would become LtGov).
Drezner- just because someone thinks you sound like a T supporter doesn’t mean you are. They, and you, assume support of a Biden was idolatry . It was not - I would never support giving up the incumbent advantage - that is a strategy not idolatry . We’re particularly reluctant to give up an incumbent who is this successful. That is crazy , right ? We also want to avoid exactly the cf which we will be going into now. And ya know it’s gonna go “there.”
Bc it always always always does. We cannot unite like the GOP- bc we are not homogenous robots. It doesn’t work that way in Dem land. All areas were a strategy to win . I cannot tell you how dismissive and patronizing this take is… and it’s not the first time I heard it today. 56% of Dems still wanted Biden - and the 46% who could not get behind him and denigrated him and party for the last month are all “unite” let’s roll - f yer feelings now . When they were all hey I wanna be heard , I don’t feel listened too - Biden is sooooo old yesterday . See how this works?? It’s hard to stomach …
Yes, I have been arguing vociferously that it is insanity to give up the incumbency benefit. Trump will get some of that since he was president, and now we lose it all.
Party insiders put Biden thru the primaries virtually unopposed. Everyone I knew was very disappointed. Then, as now, they preferred someone else, but were given no choice. I wonder if they will ask the most obvious question. Who's calling the shots? Us or you?
If Biden stepped down from the Presidency wouldn't that have almost ensured that Johnson was in the position to certify the election results? That seems ... sub-optimal. Because if you are seeing a scenario where the House supports a Harris choice for VP after Biden I want to see that argument laid out.
To all your points I would add that he knew, from his years working in and with Congress, that he couldn’t count on his Democratic colleagues once he was under attack. I disagree with the media-driven depiction of Biden’s cognitive health but that’s beside the point now, except he gets to continue to show the world how well he handles the job of being president.
others are favoring a white male, but I fear that would mean electing a democratic woman for president after Harris (assuming she wins) pushed much further into the future.
In the end, Biden handled it perfectly: stepping aside and endorsing Harris while calling for the delegates to decide, and *not* resigning as President. In this, you're wrong, Dan. He can handle the last six months of his term and should stay. And forcing Harris to become President would do her absolutely no favors. It's hard enough to suddenly become the (likely) nominee. *At the same time* becoming President would add a burden to a near-impossible one that no one could handle. Her attention would immediately be diverted from building a campaign from scratch to "how are you going to handle Bibi and the whole Gaza mess?"
He handled it just right.
Great take. Biden can focus on presidency while Harris is freer to work on campaign issues.
Agreed, Marc.
Someone pointed out that Biden's real opponent was the couch. If he couldn't muster enough enthusiasm to get folks to the polls, he will follow in the footsteps of Hillary and lose in the swing states and the electoral college.
Already everybody particularly women are interested and enthusiastic about the prospect of new hope rather than simply having to hold our nose and vote against Trump. It would be nice to have someone to vote 'for' rather than grudging having to vote against Trump's unfitness for office. Now, the attention will be on Trump's cognitive capacities rather than Biden's senescence.
As I have heard it said, Trump was not expecting Harris. This is great news for the Dems and the whole country.
I think Trump was not expecting Harris because he couldn't imagine someone walking away for the good of the nation. His brain is incapable of processing that thought.
Great analysis Daniel. A lot of people have just been given permission to abandon Trump. My bet is that a whole lot of them will take it.
Doubtful
I’m more optimistic. We’ll see.
Of course , this is an outcome you desired … I’d hope you’d be more optimistic or it was all for naught.
Fair point.
Disagree with you about the importance of the VP nominee. Though KH has widespread name recognition, little else is known about her (other than maybe she was a prior prosecutor in CA & a pretty bad presidential candidate) among the general populace. A widely known & popular no. 2 on the ticket could help draw in potential voters. My personal favorite (& one of my senators) is AZ's Mark Kelly, Naval aviation combat veteran, former astronaut, & very popular senator from an important swing state. Also, he would balance the ticket both gender- & race-wise which could cause reluctant white dudes to have a look. Plus AZ's governor is a D who could name a D to replace him.
Kelly's definitely a good choice. Shapiro seems like a solid pick as well (though one minor downside of that -- the Dem LtGov would become Gov, but the Republican State Senate pres would become LtGov).
I like your analysis a lot, but not your suggestion about Biden resigning.
Having Johnson as VP through the line of succession could have been horrific and then the House would have also needed a new Speaker.
Behold! Technically, VP Harris is 2 1/2 months too old to be considered GenX
Crap, Gen X gets the high hard one again...
Drezner- just because someone thinks you sound like a T supporter doesn’t mean you are. They, and you, assume support of a Biden was idolatry . It was not - I would never support giving up the incumbent advantage - that is a strategy not idolatry . We’re particularly reluctant to give up an incumbent who is this successful. That is crazy , right ? We also want to avoid exactly the cf which we will be going into now. And ya know it’s gonna go “there.”
Bc it always always always does. We cannot unite like the GOP- bc we are not homogenous robots. It doesn’t work that way in Dem land. All areas were a strategy to win . I cannot tell you how dismissive and patronizing this take is… and it’s not the first time I heard it today. 56% of Dems still wanted Biden - and the 46% who could not get behind him and denigrated him and party for the last month are all “unite” let’s roll - f yer feelings now . When they were all hey I wanna be heard , I don’t feel listened too - Biden is sooooo old yesterday . See how this works?? It’s hard to stomach …
Yes, I have been arguing vociferously that it is insanity to give up the incumbency benefit. Trump will get some of that since he was president, and now we lose it all.
Right ! ? It’s a strategy not idolatry.
Nate Silver provides a long analysis of the idea that incumbency stopped being a benefit in the recent years.
If you can only convince 56% of people in your own party that you're fit to be president, what's your success rate going to be with independents?
And no Harris is NOT an incumbent .
She is an incumbent VP.
That’s not viewed the same.
Party insiders put Biden thru the primaries virtually unopposed. Everyone I knew was very disappointed. Then, as now, they preferred someone else, but were given no choice. I wonder if they will ask the most obvious question. Who's calling the shots? Us or you?
If Biden stepped down from the Presidency wouldn't that have almost ensured that Johnson was in the position to certify the election results? That seems ... sub-optimal. Because if you are seeing a scenario where the House supports a Harris choice for VP after Biden I want to see that argument laid out.
So much stool analysis. I was expecting some feces throwing.
The subtitle was « cannibal for Leibowitz. »
To all your points I would add that he knew, from his years working in and with Congress, that he couldn’t count on his Democratic colleagues once he was under attack. I disagree with the media-driven depiction of Biden’s cognitive health but that’s beside the point now, except he gets to continue to show the world how well he handles the job of being president.
Before this becomes received wisdom, Kamala is a Baby Boomer, not a Gen X
others are favoring a white male, but I fear that would mean electing a democratic woman for president after Harris (assuming she wins) pushed much further into the future.
Wait when you do Canticle for Leibowitz that really does feel like there should be, like, five minutes of Ross Douthat guest spot.