I too have been confused by conflicting takes on the Russian economy, effect of sanctions.
Here’s a granular look by Thane Gustafson - one one of the most highly regarded experts - on the impact of sanctions on one sector, the cloud. Maybe in some ways it tells you more than the 30,000 foot takes. The cloud is degrading. So much else must be too.
A little skeptical about a complete wreck of the civilian economy. I wonder how the effects of sanctions differ between cities like Moscow and the outer provinces like Crimea. The way the partial mobilization was conducted, I assume the cities are what Putin cares much more about. Recommend the "Public Opinion in Russia: What Do We Know, What Can We Know?" on the Chain Reaction podcast, https://www.fpri.org/research/nationalsecurity/chain-reaction/ . If/when the effects reach cities should be an interesting point at which to gauge the effect of the sanctions.
I too have been confused by conflicting takes on the Russian economy, effect of sanctions.
Here’s a granular look by Thane Gustafson - one one of the most highly regarded experts - on the impact of sanctions on one sector, the cloud. Maybe in some ways it tells you more than the 30,000 foot takes. The cloud is degrading. So much else must be too.
https://open.substack.com/pub/thanegustafson/p/clouding-over-the-impact-of-sanctions?r=yxvd&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
A little skeptical about a complete wreck of the civilian economy. I wonder how the effects of sanctions differ between cities like Moscow and the outer provinces like Crimea. The way the partial mobilization was conducted, I assume the cities are what Putin cares much more about. Recommend the "Public Opinion in Russia: What Do We Know, What Can We Know?" on the Chain Reaction podcast, https://www.fpri.org/research/nationalsecurity/chain-reaction/ . If/when the effects reach cities should be an interesting point at which to gauge the effect of the sanctions.