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I'm so far out of the game now, I can only comment on seeing the same things everyone else does. My initial intuition was exactly what you stated in point 1. Tend to think scuttling the impending normalization with KSA was one the major objectives of this attack. Yep, not what the world needed right now.

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There's been a lot of talk that the Russians are doing everything they can to throw the US's attention off of Ukraine, both in Europe and Africa. Seems like we can add a new region to the list. They don't want that Israel-SA deal happening.

Not sure if this were in concert with the Iranians, but that's part of why I see the hand of Putin behind this play. Frankly, this doesn't feel like something Hamas could do without support, whether in intelligence, logistics, or organization. Very few countries could provide it, and only a handful would have any kind of motive.

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Perhaps, but I'm at least skeptical. No doubt, Putin will love the attention this requires from Washington and the West in general; any lessening toward him and Ukraine will be welcomed. But I'm guessing the support is much less direct, particularly from them; with even less from Iran than one might normally assume. I say this because Hamas clearly planned, prepared and executed this operation with enormous secrecy--especially given the size. To do so, while heavily coordinating with foreign entities, is several times harder still. In no small part because that would potentially alert/draw in OTHER intelligence from places like the US.

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This is exactly why I doubt they soloed it. To be blunt, they haven't demonstrated either the patience or competence to do this alone, and their internal comms capability is unlikely to get past Israeli scrutiny. They'd need extra tech assistance to be able to do this in the first place.

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Sure. Tech and military support are what they are--and, of course, they have support from outside sources--but that's the steady state anyway. At some point, there was likely the buying of more stuff, but even that was probably not done in a rush so as to draw attention. Not the same as coordinating an actual attack itself--wholly different animal. As for competence and patience, they obviously have it or couldn't have pulled this off even if Martians had supported them--all the tech and tricks in the world would've gone poof had they not had good OPSEC. So, on discipline and patience, I'd call that an underestimation. Comms is hard to know, specifically, here. I know that LH surprised the Israelis with their ability to crack secure comms (specificially freq hopping) in 2006, but I have no idea if Hamas has equipment that can evade Israeli surveillance. Initial reads seem to indicate that, shades of the SNA in Mog 31 years ago, Hamas resorted to decidedly low tech means for much of their comms.

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The challenge is the totally justified and demanded retaliation without putting the Saudis in a pickle. A unity government is a good place to start. It allows Bibi to kick out Ben Gvir and Smotrich. Arguably their interest in making hay in the West Bank forced the IDF to move troops there and away from Gaza border. Not that I'm giving the IDF a pass. far from it.

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My biggest fear is that Netanyahu gets stronger as a result. This is a harbinger for things to come if Trump wins again. The far right will completely take over the government and it never ends well.

On the bright side, at least Trump will be out of the news for a while. But seriously, Israeli policies continually add fuel to the fire.

These ceasefires are tenuous at best. And Netanyahu’s far right partners would be called Neo-Nazi’s, if they were living in America and white Christian’s instead.

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If you haven’t noticed, Hamas is a far Right terrorist organization far more violent than any Trump supporter, and so is Hezbollah. One day a ‘progressive’ will adequately explain to me how they both hate and fear Trump’s violent White Supremacist base (I do too), and at the same time completely cavalier about far Right Islamist terrorism.

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I didn’t say Hamas wasn’t a terrorist organization, read my entire thread, they are. What I said is the right-wing government adds fuel to the fire. And we would call his right-wing partners neo-Nazi’s here. They hate the Palestinians the same way the Nazi’s hated the Jews, for which I am one.

And call me crazy, but white nationalists in America account for approximately 80% of all domestic terrorist attacks. That’s a fact!

So please don’t say I’m a progressive who sympathizes with Hamas, because I don’t, and I don’t know anyone who does. But I do know draconian policies that Israel institutes, that would drive every one of us to violence, if implemented here.

The only people treated worse than Israeli’s by them, are their own people. Hama is a plague, but Netanyahu isn’t the answer.

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I don’t really know what’s more absurd in your statement, accusing Jews of being Neo-Nazis or forgetting that the actual organization actually resembling Neo-Nazis is Hamas (with their explicitly antisemitic charter).

I never voted for Netanyahu, but you are delusional if you think he’s farther Right than any Republican. He has two gross cabinet members who are about as far Right as Trumpy GOP congressman, still nowhere near White Supremacist domestic terrorists in the US. The only ones who like those monsters murder civilians are Hamas. But what’s more ‘progressive’ than maximizing the actions of Israel’s Right and minimizing the belligerent actions of the Palestinian religious Right.

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Please take your meds.

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Are you always this funny when civilians are slaughtered?

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So says the guy that supports Israeli settlers brutal treatment of Palestinians and Pretends not to support Trump, but clearly does. You sound just like a MAGA moron; projection and denial!

Now you try to blame liberals for the problems Netanyahu and his right-wing government have created with draconian policies.

Sorry, you truly need help. Clearly, you have little regard for Palestinian civilians. I morn both and blame both Hamas, and Netanyahu’s government which are responsible for the slaughter of innocents on both sides. You, however, have no shame.

So keep living in your bubble!

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See what you’re up against. Intentionally or not Hamas has strengthened the U.S. nihilistic-lunatic right

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Very true...:)

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How would you describe the Leftists who are gleefully celebrating Hamas death square murdering over 600 civilians? Nihilism doesn’t seem to cover it.

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What are you talking about? You lump every democrat together with a bunch of nut jobs. Why don’t you focus on the MAGA mob storming the Capitol, or White Nationalists marching in Charlottesville saying Jews will not replace us, and running over a girl (killing her) and injuring 17 others.

Who cares what a bunch of idiots do, they don’t represent any of us!

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Bebe got just what he wanted....He can’t say he cares about the citizens......This also gave 45 relief....Not the top story.....Intelligence ignorance......

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This is on Bebe. He has denigrated the IDF, especially the air force whose warnings he ignored.

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Logical. Bibi was behind Palestinian death squads.

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¨Peter Beaumont correctly notes the attack, “will be remembered as an intelligence failure for the ages…. if it is surprising it is because Israel’s surveillance of Palestinian society is both highly sophisticated and highly invasive, with monitoring of Hamas’s activity in particular one of the most important tasks for the security establishment.”¨

Exactly! Hamas must have been playing this one *very* close to the vest.

¨It also buys Netanyahu political time for survival.¨

He also owns this one. Twitter says 26 brigades are in & around West Bank settlements and none of those are near Gaza. Hamas must have known this, right?

¨With these attacks, Hamas has managed to make things far worse for the citizens it claims to represent.¨

But even invading, even killing all of Hamas, won´t solve the long-term problem. Gaza is a densely-packed prison, and killing all the Palestinians is basically not an option.

¨“the attack was only the start of what he called ‘Operation Al-Aqsa Storm’ and called on Palestinians from east Jerusalem to northern Israel to join the fight. ‘Today the people are regaining their revolution.’”¨

I think he´s maybe wishcasting. Hezbollah hasn´t attacked. If this was a coordinated operation they would have been attacking hours and hours ago. Same with militants in the West Bank. I am thinking Hamas did not like the way the situation was developing with regards to Saudi Arabia, and they saw an opportunity, so they ´gambled for resurrection´. Nothing has been happening for years and years - they attack, Israel counter-attacks, nothing changes. Going all in on the best available opportunity in a decade, maybe ever, perhaps seemed like a no-brainer of a suicidal variety.

¨That means escalating attacks from the rest of the occupied territories as well as from Hezbollah in Lebanon.¨

Yes, but Hezbollah has been quiet for years and years. What´s in it for them if they attack, given the economic situation in Lebanon? They have lots of missiles, yes, but that means they have deterrence against Israel. Given what has happened since the Arab Spring they have gotten a lot more powerful in relative terms just by standing pat and letting everyone else fight. (And their leaders have gotten a lot richer off the looting of the Lebanese economy.)

I am sure Iran & Hamas would like Hezbollah to attack but regardless of the rhetoric in english-speaking newspapers, they aren´t a front org the way the old Internationales used to be fronts for Moscow. Or that´s at least as far as I can see.

elm

paris 2015 is the one this most resembles for me

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If I thought letting 3000 Americans get killed at Pearl Harbor,and on 9/11 as a way of manipulating the masses,what would that make me?This is the way the big boys do things.I'm not saying it is,I'm asking is it.

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Israel's 911?Now Netanyahu can really go after Hamas,also boost his polls in time of crisis.

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Implying that getting a thousand Israeli civilians murdered by Palestinian death squads was planned or desired by Netanyahu is within the antisemitic victim blaming trope of ‘the Jews did it to themselves’. Don’t be a gross racist, Bill.

https://open.substack.com/pub/cindykaplan/p/an-open-letter-to-the-social-justice

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It worked for Bush. America was attacked on his watch, and his public support went through the roof.

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Bush wasn't trying to appease Al-Qaeda with Qatari money and work permits. Netanyahu is massively incompetent.

Again, things to sort out in elections, after smashing Hamas.

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I’m not saying that Bibi planned it, but he could still benefit from his incompetence.

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Would be good if everyone just stayed off Twitter for the duration of this war and for those who can’t kick their addiction to just assume everything you see on their can’t be trusted

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Most of these points are true if a tad obvious but need to be said. I do think it is in order for America and the West to say that while both sides are at war that doesn't mean it's OK to commit war crimes. This particularly needs to be said to Israel who appears to have already killed and damaged more Palestinians than Hamas and shows every sign of being prone to creating much bigger piles of bodies and demolished houses....that's what having a bigger army allows you to do.

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That’s a great progressive position, that Israel shouldn’t respond to Right Wing death squads going into its towns to slaughter civilians as the main goal of their operation, along with kidnapping, torturing and humiliating civilians. Very logical that every country is allowed to defend itself, but Israel.

Also your not doing your position any favors when you count hundreds of Hamas terrorists dead as if they’re Palestinian civilians. Anyway big difference in law if civilians are killed while trying to hit artillery stashed under their house, after they were earned to leave (as Israel does), versus a Hamas operation that intentionally targets slaughtering and kidnapping civilians. But pro Pal supporters are fine with Jews being murdered, so that’s a given.

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The knee jerk of worrying deeply for Gazans, as if the Palestinians didn’t elect the anti-peace Hamas in 2006, and as if Hamas didn’t intentionally massacre Israeli civilians and kidnap them, is quite amazing. One would think the 200+ Gazans lying dead on the Israeli side of the border were part of a peaceful protest.

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Well, Gazans are in an open-air prison. Hamas is an atrocious suicidal organization, but if you're Gazan, what are your better options?

And I mean this seriously: If you were born Gazan, Arrr, and stuck in Gaza, what would you, personally, do?

I hope your response, if Trump gets reelected President, wouldn't be, to all Americans, including the ones who voted against him: "You deserve what you got."

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Exactly. There are no winners here. YOU CANNOT UNDERSTAND THE PRESENT IF YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE PAST by TCinLa could help those that are unable to look at the history of the struggle between Arabs (before they became Palestinians) and Jews (before they became Israelis).

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Your willful blindness to history and aggressive chauvinism is exactly in line with Netanyahu’s authoritarian power grab. Take the time o educate yourself and perhaps your reaction to complex problems will be more measured. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_killings_and_massacres_in_Mandatory_Palestine

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Count those up, for both sides. Now add over a thousand in one day Palestinian death squads committed.

https://open.substack.com/pub/cindykaplan/p/an-open-letter-to-the-social-justice

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I agree. If you don’t understand that anywhere Arabs were a majority and Jews the minority there were pogroms and lynchings prevents you from seeing that Hamas is more of the same murderous attitude, and there is little seriousness about peace with Palestinians.

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Why _are_ Gazans in an “open air prison” (which isn’t a prison, but why not dumbnhyperbole)?

In 2005 Israel left all of Gaza. Next year Gaza voted for the anti peace faction, Hamas, the organization that through terrorism had been trying to kill the peace process since 1994. That was a choice for war the Palestinians did of their own will. Later than year Hamas performs a coup and takes over Gaza.

The land that was 100% ceded to the Palestinian is a terrorism artillery base. Its resources turned into ensuring there never will be peace.

From choosing Hamas to launching attacks constantly on Israeli civilians, the “jail”, which has a border with Egypt through which endless amounts of ammunition are entered, is a Palestinian initiative.

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...you didn't answer the question, I noticed.

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Well clearly I’m meant to say that even when a Hamas terrorist slaughters entire families it’s Israel’s fault.

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So a sarcastic response instead of a serious one, I see. Do you just not want to put yourself in the shoes of a Gazan? Simply unable to see the world through the eyes of another?

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I have a friend who lives in one of the border towns that were attacked. He is (or was) very much on the Left, pro Palestinian. I haven’t heard from him. Can you put yourself in the shoes of Israelis who have always said the security risk by Hamas is existential, and the Palestinian agenda is one of ethnic cleansing, not just words in the Hamas charter, but a reality.

If you can’t get comprehend that the Palestinian concept of liberation is massacres, kidnapping, torture and humiliation, then you’re not trying hard enough to put yourself in the shoes of civilians in Israel, who whether they’re Left or Right are targets of this Palestinian violence.

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Lame.

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Yep. You avoided my question. Stop doing the GOP thing of dodging the question and please answer it.

And if Gaza isn't an open air prison, where exactly can Gazans go to? Can they go and settle in Israel?

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They can go through Egypt to anywhere they want. Israel doesn’t control the Egyptian border, that’s an Arab country.

They also can go work in Israel. Maybe not any more after Hamas used conquering the border crossing to stream hundreds of death squat members into Israeli civilian towns. Do you know Gazans worked in Israel?

They can go study abroad. Or they could fight against the worse-than-Trump religious Right fascist regime of Hamas holding them prisoner.

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I asked what would _you_ do. As far as I know, Egypt doesn't grant citizenship to Gazans. And yes, some can escape Gaza but I think you realize that isn't a realistic option for most Gazans. So say you're a Gazan who doesn't have the means/ability to study abroad. And I'll assume you don't support Hamas. Granted, many Gazans do, but say you don't. Again, what would _you_ do? You could work in Israel, but probably not any more, and Israel will be pretty brutal about bombing and killing your people. Some culpable but many who did not go and kill/rape Israelis. How would you fight against Hamas? With your bare hands?

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There are Arab and European and South American countries that grant Palestinians citizenship.

As opposed to ‘progressive’ apologists of the Palestinian and Arab agenda of ethnically cleansing Jews from Israel, I don’t like fascist Right wing religious organizations like Hamas. I personally would be fighting them, whether in the country or outside of it.

Palestinians and pro Palestinians are celebrating Right Wing death squads. How do _you_ feel about your cohort’s behavior?

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