What do we (the West) do in the event Putin launches Russia's nuclear armament - and it is a dud? What then?
Not like that possibility would surprise. His war with Ukraine has revealed the decay in Russia's materiel has been enormous; more than we expected, more than Russia (Putin) expected.
Apologies for my delayed reply. Caught up in a sudden family health emergency.
No one disputes Russia's materiel works, just not all of it; their dud:boom ratio is skewed unfavorably for Russia.
I first noted this recognition (could have been talked up elsewhere earlier) either on Phillips Payson O'Brien's Substack or ISW < https://www.understandingwar.org/ >. The thought is/was Russia has fallen behind on maintenance of its materiel. I am no expert on military munitions, not even close, but apparently munitions require maintenance just like your house, and car, etc. The discussion got me thinking: What else in Russia's quiver might not work as advertised? And how we would/should respond if Putin/Russia tries and fails.
Over the last week, Ukraine has demonstrated that they’re quite capable of destroying critical Russian assets without the use of NATO supplied long range weapons. (This is not to say that the permission to use them wouldn’t be icing on the cake, just that the Ukrainians have been showing the world that they haven’t lost their touch in creative weapons production since the collapse of the USSR.)
I keep trying to figure out what Putin is talking about when he blathers about providing weapons to countries aligned against NATO and our allies. The dude doesn’t even have enough materiel to carry out the war he’s currently engaged in. Where’s he going to get more kit to distribute to others when those others are the ones supplying him kit to carry out his vanity war?
I would still expect Putin to continue jiggling that rusty saber--at least a little bit--so long as it has resonance in MAGA world. So long as dunderheads like JD Vance are willing to carry water on this, it will have SOME effect.
"we must understand that Putin will keep hitting our fear buttons, but like during the Cold War, we must unite in understanding that threatening nuclear weapons & starting WWIII are gaslighting fear traps... Unlike trump, Putin understands approximately 100 nukes will block out the sun for two years, ending most of humanity, & he wants Russia around to worship Czar Vlad the Great’s legacy. There’s no glory in ending humanity." June 6, 2022
It doesn't help that yet another of their nuclear tests blew up three days ago: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/24/russias-new-sarmat-missile-suffered-catastrophic-failure-researchers
Perhaps a more interesting question...
What do we (the West) do in the event Putin launches Russia's nuclear armament - and it is a dud? What then?
Not like that possibility would surprise. His war with Ukraine has revealed the decay in Russia's materiel has been enormous; more than we expected, more than Russia (Putin) expected.
How has Russia's war on Ukraine shown that Russia's materiel has "decayed"?
His weapons seem to work fine.
Are you watching the same war I am?
Yes.
Again, what evidence suggests that Russia's weapons don't work properly?
Apologies for my delayed reply. Caught up in a sudden family health emergency.
No one disputes Russia's materiel works, just not all of it; their dud:boom ratio is skewed unfavorably for Russia.
I first noted this recognition (could have been talked up elsewhere earlier) either on Phillips Payson O'Brien's Substack or ISW < https://www.understandingwar.org/ >. The thought is/was Russia has fallen behind on maintenance of its materiel. I am no expert on military munitions, not even close, but apparently munitions require maintenance just like your house, and car, etc. The discussion got me thinking: What else in Russia's quiver might not work as advertised? And how we would/should respond if Putin/Russia tries and fails.
We may hem and haw but his neighbors to the south and east, Russia's actual threats, will have to look at that as a sign.
Over the last week, Ukraine has demonstrated that they’re quite capable of destroying critical Russian assets without the use of NATO supplied long range weapons. (This is not to say that the permission to use them wouldn’t be icing on the cake, just that the Ukrainians have been showing the world that they haven’t lost their touch in creative weapons production since the collapse of the USSR.)
I keep trying to figure out what Putin is talking about when he blathers about providing weapons to countries aligned against NATO and our allies. The dude doesn’t even have enough materiel to carry out the war he’s currently engaged in. Where’s he going to get more kit to distribute to others when those others are the ones supplying him kit to carry out his vanity war?
I would still expect Putin to continue jiggling that rusty saber--at least a little bit--so long as it has resonance in MAGA world. So long as dunderheads like JD Vance are willing to carry water on this, it will have SOME effect.
"we must understand that Putin will keep hitting our fear buttons, but like during the Cold War, we must unite in understanding that threatening nuclear weapons & starting WWIII are gaslighting fear traps... Unlike trump, Putin understands approximately 100 nukes will block out the sun for two years, ending most of humanity, & he wants Russia around to worship Czar Vlad the Great’s legacy. There’s no glory in ending humanity." June 6, 2022
https://samray.substack.com/p/the-putin-illusion-a-psychological-9dd