What do we (the West) do in the event Putin launches Russia's nuclear armament - and it is a dud? What then?
Not like that possibility would surprise. His war with Ukraine has revealed the decay in Russia's materiel has been enormous; more than we expected, more than Russia (Putin) expected.
Let's see: Russia invaded a neighboring country with 1/3 the population and 1/9th the GDP. Russia has lost 100s of thousands of troops, including its best trained airborne and airmobile infantry, 10s of thousands of tanks and other armored vehicles, thousands of aircraft, including large %s of its most modern fighter bombers, AWACs, and bombers, and most of its Black Sea Fleet.
After all these losses, it is stalemated and has lost some of its own territory to a counteroffensive.
Maybe its weapons are all great and it just has the worst-trained armed forces in the world?
It seems more likely that only a combination of poor training, poor leadership and poor weapons could explain Russia's abysmal performance.
Russia hasn't lost thousands of aircraft, nor has it lost tens of thousands of tanks and other armored vehicles.
The reason why Russia has nonetheless taken significant personnel and materiel losses is that Ukraine has a large army that fights reasonably well and is equipped by the West.
Russia absolutely has lost thousands of AC and 10s of thousands of armored vehicles. It was quickly reduced to using tanks from the 1950s taken out of long-term storage. What bizarro world are you living in, Boris?
Your second paragraph is mostly correct. Russia is fighting an opponent that is tolerably competent, equipped with some good -- but neither very plentiful not the best quality -- weapons. But Russian forces had huge advantages on Ukraine in initial weapons quality and quantity and Russia failed to exploit these advantages bc its own forces are corrupt and not well trained.
Apologies for my delayed reply. Caught up in a sudden family health emergency.
No one disputes Russia's materiel works, just not all of it; their dud:boom ratio is skewed unfavorably for Russia.
I first noted this recognition (could have been talked up elsewhere earlier) either on Phillips Payson O'Brien's Substack or ISW < https://www.understandingwar.org/ >. The thought is/was Russia has fallen behind on maintenance of its materiel. I am no expert on military munitions, not even close, but apparently munitions require maintenance just like your house, and car, etc. The discussion got me thinking: What else in Russia's quiver might not work as advertised? And how we would/should respond if Putin/Russia tries and fails.
Over the last week, Ukraine has demonstrated that they’re quite capable of destroying critical Russian assets without the use of NATO supplied long range weapons. (This is not to say that the permission to use them wouldn’t be icing on the cake, just that the Ukrainians have been showing the world that they haven’t lost their touch in creative weapons production since the collapse of the USSR.)
I keep trying to figure out what Putin is talking about when he blathers about providing weapons to countries aligned against NATO and our allies. The dude doesn’t even have enough materiel to carry out the war he’s currently engaged in. Where’s he going to get more kit to distribute to others when those others are the ones supplying him kit to carry out his vanity war?
I would still expect Putin to continue jiggling that rusty saber--at least a little bit--so long as it has resonance in MAGA world. So long as dunderheads like JD Vance are willing to carry water on this, it will have SOME effect.
"we must understand that Putin will keep hitting our fear buttons, but like during the Cold War, we must unite in understanding that threatening nuclear weapons & starting WWIII are gaslighting fear traps... Unlike trump, Putin understands approximately 100 nukes will block out the sun for two years, ending most of humanity, & he wants Russia around to worship Czar Vlad the Great’s legacy. There’s no glory in ending humanity." June 6, 2022
It doesn't help that yet another of their nuclear tests blew up three days ago: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/24/russias-new-sarmat-missile-suffered-catastrophic-failure-researchers
Perhaps a more interesting question...
What do we (the West) do in the event Putin launches Russia's nuclear armament - and it is a dud? What then?
Not like that possibility would surprise. His war with Ukraine has revealed the decay in Russia's materiel has been enormous; more than we expected, more than Russia (Putin) expected.
How has Russia's war on Ukraine shown that Russia's materiel has "decayed"?
His weapons seem to work fine.
Are you watching the same war I am?
Yes.
Again, what evidence suggests that Russia's weapons don't work properly?
Let's see: Russia invaded a neighboring country with 1/3 the population and 1/9th the GDP. Russia has lost 100s of thousands of troops, including its best trained airborne and airmobile infantry, 10s of thousands of tanks and other armored vehicles, thousands of aircraft, including large %s of its most modern fighter bombers, AWACs, and bombers, and most of its Black Sea Fleet.
After all these losses, it is stalemated and has lost some of its own territory to a counteroffensive.
Maybe its weapons are all great and it just has the worst-trained armed forces in the world?
It seems more likely that only a combination of poor training, poor leadership and poor weapons could explain Russia's abysmal performance.
Russia hasn't lost thousands of aircraft, nor has it lost tens of thousands of tanks and other armored vehicles.
The reason why Russia has nonetheless taken significant personnel and materiel losses is that Ukraine has a large army that fights reasonably well and is equipped by the West.
Russia absolutely has lost thousands of AC and 10s of thousands of armored vehicles. It was quickly reduced to using tanks from the 1950s taken out of long-term storage. What bizarro world are you living in, Boris?
Your second paragraph is mostly correct. Russia is fighting an opponent that is tolerably competent, equipped with some good -- but neither very plentiful not the best quality -- weapons. But Russian forces had huge advantages on Ukraine in initial weapons quality and quantity and Russia failed to exploit these advantages bc its own forces are corrupt and not well trained.
Apologies for my delayed reply. Caught up in a sudden family health emergency.
No one disputes Russia's materiel works, just not all of it; their dud:boom ratio is skewed unfavorably for Russia.
I first noted this recognition (could have been talked up elsewhere earlier) either on Phillips Payson O'Brien's Substack or ISW < https://www.understandingwar.org/ >. The thought is/was Russia has fallen behind on maintenance of its materiel. I am no expert on military munitions, not even close, but apparently munitions require maintenance just like your house, and car, etc. The discussion got me thinking: What else in Russia's quiver might not work as advertised? And how we would/should respond if Putin/Russia tries and fails.
We may hem and haw but his neighbors to the south and east, Russia's actual threats, will have to look at that as a sign.
Over the last week, Ukraine has demonstrated that they’re quite capable of destroying critical Russian assets without the use of NATO supplied long range weapons. (This is not to say that the permission to use them wouldn’t be icing on the cake, just that the Ukrainians have been showing the world that they haven’t lost their touch in creative weapons production since the collapse of the USSR.)
I keep trying to figure out what Putin is talking about when he blathers about providing weapons to countries aligned against NATO and our allies. The dude doesn’t even have enough materiel to carry out the war he’s currently engaged in. Where’s he going to get more kit to distribute to others when those others are the ones supplying him kit to carry out his vanity war?
I would still expect Putin to continue jiggling that rusty saber--at least a little bit--so long as it has resonance in MAGA world. So long as dunderheads like JD Vance are willing to carry water on this, it will have SOME effect.
"we must understand that Putin will keep hitting our fear buttons, but like during the Cold War, we must unite in understanding that threatening nuclear weapons & starting WWIII are gaslighting fear traps... Unlike trump, Putin understands approximately 100 nukes will block out the sun for two years, ending most of humanity, & he wants Russia around to worship Czar Vlad the Great’s legacy. There’s no glory in ending humanity." June 6, 2022
https://samray.substack.com/p/the-putin-illusion-a-psychological-9dd