Apparently this Republican pollster didn’t read Trumps vile, unpatriotic, unchristian Christmas message to the world. That was two days ago. Talk about the ability to live in denial to push a mad man’s message in order to make a buck.
I gain some hope by the fact that most voters are switched off politics at the moment but when they do, if the past 6 months are anything to go by, Trump is not likely to present himself as a competent and attractive candidate. His ravings on Truth Social seems consistently more incoherent, angry and unpresidential than were his Twitter postings. At least that's my memory.
¨one of them is claiming that a man with poor impulse control, four criminal indictments, and a need to deny that he’s reading the works of Adolf Hitler can sell himself as an agent of stability. ¨
The answer to this problem is that Trump almost certainly hasn´t read *Mein* *Kampf* (who has? most people who owned copies during the Third Reich never read it) or the *Secret* *Book*. Likewise I very much doubt he´s ever read Shirer or Toland or Fest or Kershaw. Or any kind of history of the Third Reich. But we do know he has read one book, because Ivanka Trump told us this in 2015 or 2016: she said Trump had a book of Hitler´s speeches by bedside. If you have ever read any of Hitler´s speeches, preferably, along with Churchill´s speeches and Stalin´s, you know something about them. The writing is not challenging, they do not touch a lot of different points (no SOTU here!), they go into very little detail about the main subject, and on paper, they are fucking dull (they are!). All the meat in Hitler´s speeches was in his performances of the speeches, not the speeches themselves. The actual writing tends to sound a bit like some notecards (albeit coherent) written by a mostly uninteresting clerk with a penchant for apocalypticism and bigotry. (Mussolini was a terrible person but he could write speeches that said something, which was rather the opposite of what Hitler was trying to do.) That in turn means that any book of Hitler´s speeches is going to be short and not particularly challenging reading, a My Little Golden Book of Venting Hatred. And thus the sort of thing which would be ideal bedside reading for someone determinedly unintellectual as Donald Trump.
Trump is copping Hitler´s rhetoric because the rhetoric is the part he´s actually read.
Kristen Soltis Anderson: ¨In my assessment of the dynamics of this election, what I see and hear is an electorate that seems to be craving stability in the economy, in their finances, at the border, in their schools and in the world. They want order, and they are open to people on the left and the right who are more likely to provide that, as we saw with the rejection of several chaos candidates in 2022, even as steady-as-she-goes incumbents sailed to re-election.¨
¨The questions raised by my ´Join me and together we can crush the rebellion and rule the galaxy´ t-shirt have already been answered by my t-shirt.¨
¨Irwin is focusing exclusively on the economy; Soltis Anderson is not just talking about the economy but additional socioeconomic and foreign policy measures. ¨
´Irwin is talking about actual existing reality, and Soltis Anderson is engaged in some polite shipping of her authoritarian fetish.´
¨This is where Soltis Anderson might have unwittingly stumbled onto something.¨
There is nothing unwitting about it.
¨This might cut in Biden’s favor if this means more coverage on abortion. ¨
It will. When we get down to brass tacks, all this stuff our elite political press has been spinning is going to turn out to be vapor. they are trying to tell a certain sort of upper-middle class white person what they want to hear, or what will terrify them. The political storytelling in the papers has managed to exceed Sturgeon´s law and achieved something like 96% bullshit. You can do that in a political vacuum, but it won´t work in a campaign year.
elm
that´s without getting into the historical track records of one-term presidents like trump
Repeat 3 times: women’s reproductive health care rights. This constant refrain that economic concerns are the highest priority for voters and Dobbs is old news, demeans women and the huge number of thinking men who will not forget. There is a straight line from the former guy to the Dobbs decision. Grassroots GOTV campaigns will make sure no one forgets in 2024 with implications up and down the ballot. Remember the red wave in the midterms….that did not happen.
In a one-on-one race, I am convinced Trump loses. The biggest concern and fear is that there are one or more third party candidates that get on the ballot and siphon off votes from Biden, allowing Trump to slither back in to the Oval Office.
That is a worst cause scenario if there ever was, not because it says something critical about voting in a democracy, but because of the actual individuals who are the candidates, the multi-indicted one in particular. Voting for a third party candidate will likely lead to Trump being elected. Sitting out the election (i.e., not voting at all), will do the same. We must have the largest and most ferocious GOTV campaign leading up to November 2024 that this country has ever seen. Its the only way to save it.
The missing piece in Soltis Anderson's argument is that "stability" and "order" aren't the same thing.
Trump promises vengeful justice that will set things "right", but no one will ever believe that Trump offers placidity and calm.
Voters don't actually want placidity and calm as much as they say they do, but enough of them want it enough that Trump is going to face some headwinds when his words become the most watched thing on normie TV again.
The unavoidable horror is that it was a coinflip in 2016, a coinflip in 2020, and it's a coinflip in 2024 and there's nothing any of us can do about it.
There are some interesting points and insights flying around here (liked, “young people don’t really know the before times,” possible), but the conversation is very imprecise.
There are about 8 states which will determine the 2024 election, and the only dynamics that matter are those particular races. General conversations guessing about general opinions don’t really provide much insight about the actual outcome next year.
Apparently this Republican pollster didn’t read Trumps vile, unpatriotic, unchristian Christmas message to the world. That was two days ago. Talk about the ability to live in denial to push a mad man’s message in order to make a buck.
I gain some hope by the fact that most voters are switched off politics at the moment but when they do, if the past 6 months are anything to go by, Trump is not likely to present himself as a competent and attractive candidate. His ravings on Truth Social seems consistently more incoherent, angry and unpresidential than were his Twitter postings. At least that's my memory.
¨one of them is claiming that a man with poor impulse control, four criminal indictments, and a need to deny that he’s reading the works of Adolf Hitler can sell himself as an agent of stability. ¨
The answer to this problem is that Trump almost certainly hasn´t read *Mein* *Kampf* (who has? most people who owned copies during the Third Reich never read it) or the *Secret* *Book*. Likewise I very much doubt he´s ever read Shirer or Toland or Fest or Kershaw. Or any kind of history of the Third Reich. But we do know he has read one book, because Ivanka Trump told us this in 2015 or 2016: she said Trump had a book of Hitler´s speeches by bedside. If you have ever read any of Hitler´s speeches, preferably, along with Churchill´s speeches and Stalin´s, you know something about them. The writing is not challenging, they do not touch a lot of different points (no SOTU here!), they go into very little detail about the main subject, and on paper, they are fucking dull (they are!). All the meat in Hitler´s speeches was in his performances of the speeches, not the speeches themselves. The actual writing tends to sound a bit like some notecards (albeit coherent) written by a mostly uninteresting clerk with a penchant for apocalypticism and bigotry. (Mussolini was a terrible person but he could write speeches that said something, which was rather the opposite of what Hitler was trying to do.) That in turn means that any book of Hitler´s speeches is going to be short and not particularly challenging reading, a My Little Golden Book of Venting Hatred. And thus the sort of thing which would be ideal bedside reading for someone determinedly unintellectual as Donald Trump.
Trump is copping Hitler´s rhetoric because the rhetoric is the part he´s actually read.
Kristen Soltis Anderson: ¨In my assessment of the dynamics of this election, what I see and hear is an electorate that seems to be craving stability in the economy, in their finances, at the border, in their schools and in the world. They want order, and they are open to people on the left and the right who are more likely to provide that, as we saw with the rejection of several chaos candidates in 2022, even as steady-as-she-goes incumbents sailed to re-election.¨
¨The questions raised by my ´Join me and together we can crush the rebellion and rule the galaxy´ t-shirt have already been answered by my t-shirt.¨
¨Irwin is focusing exclusively on the economy; Soltis Anderson is not just talking about the economy but additional socioeconomic and foreign policy measures. ¨
´Irwin is talking about actual existing reality, and Soltis Anderson is engaged in some polite shipping of her authoritarian fetish.´
¨This is where Soltis Anderson might have unwittingly stumbled onto something.¨
There is nothing unwitting about it.
¨This might cut in Biden’s favor if this means more coverage on abortion. ¨
It will. When we get down to brass tacks, all this stuff our elite political press has been spinning is going to turn out to be vapor. they are trying to tell a certain sort of upper-middle class white person what they want to hear, or what will terrify them. The political storytelling in the papers has managed to exceed Sturgeon´s law and achieved something like 96% bullshit. You can do that in a political vacuum, but it won´t work in a campaign year.
elm
that´s without getting into the historical track records of one-term presidents like trump
Repeat 3 times: women’s reproductive health care rights. This constant refrain that economic concerns are the highest priority for voters and Dobbs is old news, demeans women and the huge number of thinking men who will not forget. There is a straight line from the former guy to the Dobbs decision. Grassroots GOTV campaigns will make sure no one forgets in 2024 with implications up and down the ballot. Remember the red wave in the midterms….that did not happen.
In a one-on-one race, I am convinced Trump loses. The biggest concern and fear is that there are one or more third party candidates that get on the ballot and siphon off votes from Biden, allowing Trump to slither back in to the Oval Office.
That is a worst cause scenario if there ever was, not because it says something critical about voting in a democracy, but because of the actual individuals who are the candidates, the multi-indicted one in particular. Voting for a third party candidate will likely lead to Trump being elected. Sitting out the election (i.e., not voting at all), will do the same. We must have the largest and most ferocious GOTV campaign leading up to November 2024 that this country has ever seen. Its the only way to save it.
The missing piece in Soltis Anderson's argument is that "stability" and "order" aren't the same thing.
Trump promises vengeful justice that will set things "right", but no one will ever believe that Trump offers placidity and calm.
Voters don't actually want placidity and calm as much as they say they do, but enough of them want it enough that Trump is going to face some headwinds when his words become the most watched thing on normie TV again.
The unavoidable horror is that it was a coinflip in 2016, a coinflip in 2020, and it's a coinflip in 2024 and there's nothing any of us can do about it.
There are some interesting points and insights flying around here (liked, “young people don’t really know the before times,” possible), but the conversation is very imprecise.
There are about 8 states which will determine the 2024 election, and the only dynamics that matter are those particular races. General conversations guessing about general opinions don’t really provide much insight about the actual outcome next year.
Really, 6:
The Rust Belt triplet of PA, MI, and WI and the Sun Belt triplet of GA, AZ, and NV.
Oh, I suppose if you include the single-EC districts in NE and ME, it's 8.