Not buying this. For me, the case against Biden isn't that he is senile/incompetent (he's not) it's that he is now unelectable. A few (quite a few) stumbles in a debate don't show that he can't function, but they ensure that he can't win the election. Even if he were capable of bouncing back, the fact that such a large segment of the party has abandoned him makes this certain.
I don't know whether there is a better option than Harris, but if she is the only alternative, that's the one I would pick.
Of course, we would have been much better off if he had decided not to run at all. Maybe time to listen to those who were saying this all along.
Which “large segment of the party” has abandoned Biden? The only people I see calling for Biden to step aside are pundits. Post debate polls show no change or Biden gains. Focus groups saw Trump being a lying asshole who cares nothing for America.and Americans. Biden got his head stuffed full of facts at debate prep and struggled for purchase throughout the night and on the few instances he got something out (until that stupid golf nonsense) was about policy. And, again, Donny was a lying liar and the lies were so outlandish to those of us who don’t drown ourselves in this crap every day that most of them were like *holy fuck! Biden is old, but I’ll take a corpse with morals over someone whose lies and grievances are so embedded in who he is as a person that there is literally no way to entrust him with our government again. My god! How had we forgotten?* Or as my 30 year old lowish information voter texted me after I asked him about their thoughts on voting after the debate …
Me: So are you guys gonna vote for Sleepy grandpa whose staff completely over prepared him for the debate or Gaslighting felon grandpa?
Him: r u srs
hmm the lying psychopath or the old guy
tough choice
at the end of the day, i have faith in kamala harris to get the job done
so obviously im voting for biden
even if i didn’t
i would vote for biden
ya im not stupid, and even tho that debate performance made me want to jump off a bridge, i would still rather have a democracy next year
here’s the thing
i think a lot of people have legit concerns about his age
The question isn't whether you or I would vote for Biden, it's whether a majority of Americans will do so. He was behind in the polls before this, and now it's a lot worse.
I partly agree with this. I think the realistic options for Dem 2024 nominee are Biden and Harris. (And at this point I’m Team Harris and not that worried about her negatives vs Biden).
But why should Biden resign the presidency? That forces Harris to be focused on both her campaign AND a haphazard transition. Why not have Biden say he just can’t do both jobs (POTUS and candidate) and he’s stepping aside and endorsing Harris. Then the convention can be partly a celebration of Biden.
The more I think about the situation, the more comfortable I am with Biden as my choice for president . He’s done a good job for the past four years and I am comfortable enough that his staff is good enough to help him with any difficulties he may face.
I'm going to wager that if I'd asked you three months ago, "Could Biden step aside and make way for Harris as the nominee while also making her the President" you would have said "this is stuff and nonsense, it's not possible, it can't happen, and it would be a catastrophe".
People who spend too much time punditing within a particular frame of electoral politics, even when they're very smart and very knowledgeable, end up with a very confident sense of what is impossible, undesirable and unlikely that ends up being disproved both narrowly within the specific course of events being predicted and comparatively in the sense that impossible things of more or less the same kind unfold in some other liberal democracy where they were thought equally improbable.
On paper, at least, it is possible within the framework of Democratic Party conventional rules for a candidate to release all of his or her delegates prior to the convention. At which point it is also technically possible that there could be a lot of frantic politicking in advance of the convention that would produce an unexpected outcome, a candidate who had not been in the running during the primaries.
I can completely see someone arguing that prudentially this would be a bad idea from two vantage points: one, that it requires Harris to be elbowed aside (a bad look, potentially) or to graciously step aside if she also decides that she's not the strongest candidate against a profoundly menacing opponent. (Or is pressured privately to decide that.) Two, that the new candidate would have only three months to convince voters that they're the right choice.
But on the other side of that same prudential analysis, you could argue the following: 1) that the behind-the-scenes politicking in July could produce a smooth glide path to the nomination for someone the leadership things can win--after all, it's political scientists who've argued that "the party decides", right? Certainly the Democratic Party leadership has shown that they're able to coordinate alignments and agreements behind the scenes pretty well--that's how they kept any serious contenders from running in the primary. Second, in a context where we know that a very large majority of voters intensely dislike BOTH candidates and even more intensely dislike being forced to relive the trauma of the worst election in American memory, you could argue that ANY Democrat under the age of 70 who got the nod might stand a good chance of winning hands-down by virtue of not being Trump, being able to form complete sentences, and not having one foot in the grave.
In any event, you're plainly wrong if you are trying to say that it is not actually possible for the convention to be thrown open and a new candidate to be picked who is not Biden or Harris. What you mean is you think that's a terrible idea and will end badly. On that score, all I ask is that people who thought it was a terrible idea to have contested primaries or a terrible idea to push Biden not to run or a terrible idea to worry about his age do a bit of re-evaluating of their own judgment of what constitutes a terrible idea.
Funny. I just finished writing almost this exact same argument about Biden resigning this summer in a Substack comment. It wouldn’t prevent a convention challenge though and that could be messy. Unlike you, I don’t think her unpopularity stems from being a high profile person in an unpopular administration. I’m sure that doesn’t help. But I think there is an unhealthy dose of racist/sexism at play (too many people have told me they just hate her and the the reason turns out to be something like “I can’t STAND her laugh.” Reminds me of the crap Hillary had to take.)
I still think that Biden is electable if he is *truly* not past it. I’m a little skeptical of the Axios article you cite. A famously nonleaky administration is suddenly hemorrhaging comments about how they have to manage Biden’s schedule because he’s incompetent? I have no doubt he is sharpest during some hours and they try to schedule him in there for public facing performance-related activities, but I do that to myself and warn people what they will get if they want me to talk past 7pm. When I read that piece this morning it reminded me of the WSJ piece where one side got much heavier play than the other and some of the negative stuff was being put in the worst light. Of course they meticulous stage manage the entrances and exits to Air Force One. He’s old and gimpy and look what happens in the news if he stumbles. Axios also said that aides have seen “flashes of absentmindedness” but brush them off because he’s “usually engaged.” Okay. Have they just changed their minds because of the debate? Because if not, I think it’s great if an 81 year old person in a high stress job with a demanding travel schedule only has flashes of “absentmindedness.” Good God!
I think they and we all need to give this some time. I am 100% with Bouie. The people who think you can bypass Harris at the last minute for Gavin Newsom (or who offer up Corry Booker as if the fact that he’s Black compensates for promoting him over the a terrifically-qualified woman right in front of them really don’t understand Democratic Party politics. I find it really amusing (except not at all funny) that so many of the people who are calling for a convention fight to produce some miracle unity candidate not named Harris are never-Trump Republicans who were blindsided by not understanding (or being able to “fix”) their OWN party! I love the Bukwark people but their panic right now is leading them to suggest some crazy stuff. (Though the bed wetting tells me that maybe they have assimilated into the Democratic Party better than they think!)
Dear Dr. Drezner: Yours is the most, if not only, realistic scenario for replacing Biden on the ticket. The VP has to become President, just hat simple. That said, it doesn't mean I agree with it, just that it is plausible. IMO, the risks of replacing Biden outweigh those of keeping him. Could be wrong of course, nobody knows anything, but I think President Harris would face a universally hostile Washington political press from day one, not to mention the combined powers of racism and misogyny.
I do have one quibble. Why on earth is a President who works day hours undesirable. His predecessor didn't work any hours and didn't show up at the office until almost lunchtime. Winston Churchill worked around the clock in WW2, thanks to also being half in the bag around the clock. As the old golf saying goes, no pictures on the scorecard.
I've read some stories about Biden gathering with his children and grandchildren this weekend at Camp David. It's the grandchildren being part of the conversation that got my attention. They aren't little kids, and in my experience it's the adult grandkids who can see a situation with more clarity than the children or spouse of a older adult facing difficulties.
As close as many grandparents are to their grandchildren, and Biden certainly is, they generally don't carry the baggage that we all have when it comes to our parents. It's so hard to see our parents age and reverse the care giving roles, and part of that is knowing that we're that much closer to confronting these issues ourselves. It's often easier to engage in denial. Grandchildren don't have that dilemma.
I don't know what they will decide, but I wouldn't sleep on the impact these adult grandkids could have on the outcome.
I'm thinking a little more perspective is in order. I mean to hear narrative of the MAGA party,
"Joe Biden is the cunning, diabolical mastermind behind a notorious family engaged in massive criminal activity across the globe that has thus far been able to elude the clutches of law enforcement authorities, including the Department of Justice and the U.S. House of Representatives . . . and he has dementia."
Dropping Biden is a desperation move. Running Harris, or anyone else in his place is a desperation move. You throw a Hail Mary or a half-court shot because it's your last best chance. I don't know if we're there yet, but it's easy to see how we might get there.
Not buying this. For me, the case against Biden isn't that he is senile/incompetent (he's not) it's that he is now unelectable. A few (quite a few) stumbles in a debate don't show that he can't function, but they ensure that he can't win the election. Even if he were capable of bouncing back, the fact that such a large segment of the party has abandoned him makes this certain.
I don't know whether there is a better option than Harris, but if she is the only alternative, that's the one I would pick.
Of course, we would have been much better off if he had decided not to run at all. Maybe time to listen to those who were saying this all along.
Which “large segment of the party” has abandoned Biden? The only people I see calling for Biden to step aside are pundits. Post debate polls show no change or Biden gains. Focus groups saw Trump being a lying asshole who cares nothing for America.and Americans. Biden got his head stuffed full of facts at debate prep and struggled for purchase throughout the night and on the few instances he got something out (until that stupid golf nonsense) was about policy. And, again, Donny was a lying liar and the lies were so outlandish to those of us who don’t drown ourselves in this crap every day that most of them were like *holy fuck! Biden is old, but I’ll take a corpse with morals over someone whose lies and grievances are so embedded in who he is as a person that there is literally no way to entrust him with our government again. My god! How had we forgotten?* Or as my 30 year old lowish information voter texted me after I asked him about their thoughts on voting after the debate …
Me: So are you guys gonna vote for Sleepy grandpa whose staff completely over prepared him for the debate or Gaslighting felon grandpa?
Him: r u srs
hmm the lying psychopath or the old guy
tough choice
at the end of the day, i have faith in kamala harris to get the job done
so obviously im voting for biden
even if i didn’t
i would vote for biden
ya im not stupid, and even tho that debate performance made me want to jump off a bridge, i would still rather have a democracy next year
here’s the thing
i think a lot of people have legit concerns about his age
these are legit concerns
trump got up there and lied for 90 min
it was a farce
after term abortions
completely ridiculous
🤔
Who ya gonna believe?
The question isn't whether you or I would vote for Biden, it's whether a majority of Americans will do so. He was behind in the polls before this, and now it's a lot worse.
Is it? What poll are you looking at? You’re also aware that most political scientists say that we shouldn’t take polls seriously until Labor Day.
Is there any evidence that would convince you Biden is set to lose? This is cope.
I partly agree with this. I think the realistic options for Dem 2024 nominee are Biden and Harris. (And at this point I’m Team Harris and not that worried about her negatives vs Biden).
But why should Biden resign the presidency? That forces Harris to be focused on both her campaign AND a haphazard transition. Why not have Biden say he just can’t do both jobs (POTUS and candidate) and he’s stepping aside and endorsing Harris. Then the convention can be partly a celebration of Biden.
Just so you know, this is the post that inspired me to stop freeloading and upgrade to paid.
The more I think about the situation, the more comfortable I am with Biden as my choice for president . He’s done a good job for the past four years and I am comfortable enough that his staff is good enough to help him with any difficulties he may face.
I'm going to wager that if I'd asked you three months ago, "Could Biden step aside and make way for Harris as the nominee while also making her the President" you would have said "this is stuff and nonsense, it's not possible, it can't happen, and it would be a catastrophe".
People who spend too much time punditing within a particular frame of electoral politics, even when they're very smart and very knowledgeable, end up with a very confident sense of what is impossible, undesirable and unlikely that ends up being disproved both narrowly within the specific course of events being predicted and comparatively in the sense that impossible things of more or less the same kind unfold in some other liberal democracy where they were thought equally improbable.
On paper, at least, it is possible within the framework of Democratic Party conventional rules for a candidate to release all of his or her delegates prior to the convention. At which point it is also technically possible that there could be a lot of frantic politicking in advance of the convention that would produce an unexpected outcome, a candidate who had not been in the running during the primaries.
I can completely see someone arguing that prudentially this would be a bad idea from two vantage points: one, that it requires Harris to be elbowed aside (a bad look, potentially) or to graciously step aside if she also decides that she's not the strongest candidate against a profoundly menacing opponent. (Or is pressured privately to decide that.) Two, that the new candidate would have only three months to convince voters that they're the right choice.
But on the other side of that same prudential analysis, you could argue the following: 1) that the behind-the-scenes politicking in July could produce a smooth glide path to the nomination for someone the leadership things can win--after all, it's political scientists who've argued that "the party decides", right? Certainly the Democratic Party leadership has shown that they're able to coordinate alignments and agreements behind the scenes pretty well--that's how they kept any serious contenders from running in the primary. Second, in a context where we know that a very large majority of voters intensely dislike BOTH candidates and even more intensely dislike being forced to relive the trauma of the worst election in American memory, you could argue that ANY Democrat under the age of 70 who got the nod might stand a good chance of winning hands-down by virtue of not being Trump, being able to form complete sentences, and not having one foot in the grave.
In any event, you're plainly wrong if you are trying to say that it is not actually possible for the convention to be thrown open and a new candidate to be picked who is not Biden or Harris. What you mean is you think that's a terrible idea and will end badly. On that score, all I ask is that people who thought it was a terrible idea to have contested primaries or a terrible idea to push Biden not to run or a terrible idea to worry about his age do a bit of re-evaluating of their own judgment of what constitutes a terrible idea.
Funny. I just finished writing almost this exact same argument about Biden resigning this summer in a Substack comment. It wouldn’t prevent a convention challenge though and that could be messy. Unlike you, I don’t think her unpopularity stems from being a high profile person in an unpopular administration. I’m sure that doesn’t help. But I think there is an unhealthy dose of racist/sexism at play (too many people have told me they just hate her and the the reason turns out to be something like “I can’t STAND her laugh.” Reminds me of the crap Hillary had to take.)
I still think that Biden is electable if he is *truly* not past it. I’m a little skeptical of the Axios article you cite. A famously nonleaky administration is suddenly hemorrhaging comments about how they have to manage Biden’s schedule because he’s incompetent? I have no doubt he is sharpest during some hours and they try to schedule him in there for public facing performance-related activities, but I do that to myself and warn people what they will get if they want me to talk past 7pm. When I read that piece this morning it reminded me of the WSJ piece where one side got much heavier play than the other and some of the negative stuff was being put in the worst light. Of course they meticulous stage manage the entrances and exits to Air Force One. He’s old and gimpy and look what happens in the news if he stumbles. Axios also said that aides have seen “flashes of absentmindedness” but brush them off because he’s “usually engaged.” Okay. Have they just changed their minds because of the debate? Because if not, I think it’s great if an 81 year old person in a high stress job with a demanding travel schedule only has flashes of “absentmindedness.” Good God!
I think they and we all need to give this some time. I am 100% with Bouie. The people who think you can bypass Harris at the last minute for Gavin Newsom (or who offer up Corry Booker as if the fact that he’s Black compensates for promoting him over the a terrifically-qualified woman right in front of them really don’t understand Democratic Party politics. I find it really amusing (except not at all funny) that so many of the people who are calling for a convention fight to produce some miracle unity candidate not named Harris are never-Trump Republicans who were blindsided by not understanding (or being able to “fix”) their OWN party! I love the Bukwark people but their panic right now is leading them to suggest some crazy stuff. (Though the bed wetting tells me that maybe they have assimilated into the Democratic Party better than they think!)
Dear Dr. Drezner: Yours is the most, if not only, realistic scenario for replacing Biden on the ticket. The VP has to become President, just hat simple. That said, it doesn't mean I agree with it, just that it is plausible. IMO, the risks of replacing Biden outweigh those of keeping him. Could be wrong of course, nobody knows anything, but I think President Harris would face a universally hostile Washington political press from day one, not to mention the combined powers of racism and misogyny.
I do have one quibble. Why on earth is a President who works day hours undesirable. His predecessor didn't work any hours and didn't show up at the office until almost lunchtime. Winston Churchill worked around the clock in WW2, thanks to also being half in the bag around the clock. As the old golf saying goes, no pictures on the scorecard.
Wait, is any serious person seriously considering RFK Jr?
No.
I've read some stories about Biden gathering with his children and grandchildren this weekend at Camp David. It's the grandchildren being part of the conversation that got my attention. They aren't little kids, and in my experience it's the adult grandkids who can see a situation with more clarity than the children or spouse of a older adult facing difficulties.
As close as many grandparents are to their grandchildren, and Biden certainly is, they generally don't carry the baggage that we all have when it comes to our parents. It's so hard to see our parents age and reverse the care giving roles, and part of that is knowing that we're that much closer to confronting these issues ourselves. It's often easier to engage in denial. Grandchildren don't have that dilemma.
I don't know what they will decide, but I wouldn't sleep on the impact these adult grandkids could have on the outcome.
Those reports also noted that this had been planned long before the Thursday debate. I wouldn't read too much into the Camp David thing.
I saw that in the article, but it's possible the debate rattled them even more than the rest of us.
I'm thinking a little more perspective is in order. I mean to hear narrative of the MAGA party,
"Joe Biden is the cunning, diabolical mastermind behind a notorious family engaged in massive criminal activity across the globe that has thus far been able to elude the clutches of law enforcement authorities, including the Department of Justice and the U.S. House of Representatives . . . and he has dementia."
Both things cannot be true at the same time.
Dropping Biden is a desperation move. Running Harris, or anyone else in his place is a desperation move. You throw a Hail Mary or a half-court shot because it's your last best chance. I don't know if we're there yet, but it's easy to see how we might get there.