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There's a certain irony in him turning to Iraq as the omni-example, while decrying the use of the Munich Moment, but to play along with the conceit for a moment, there is a slight parallel... but from the Russian side.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an attempted regime change - a reactionary Color Revolution facilitated by invasion. Putin's goal is to subdue a state, transform the citizen's relationship to that state, and then use both the geographic and psychic victories as a launchpad for further operations. The purpose, in other words, is to make the Ukrainians into exemplars of the new Russian World and to make Ukraine a bastion for projecting power. It's not clear why the Ukrainians would want to be so transformed or why they would yearn for their state to be a puppet regime.

If we must use Iraq then as our reference point, then we should ask why would the Ukrainians want to be cast in the role of Iraq to Putin's America? Just as the Americans thought they could make Iraq a model colony and remake the region through a mixture of imperial power and attractive example, so too the Russians imagine that a properly re-civilized Ukraine will be their show piece for the reconstruction of the Russo-centric civilization-state.

We should feel a certain skepticism toward any attempt to transform a nation through their subjugation or to draft a state into someone else's grand, imperial ambitions. Conquered nations generally do not want to be given a new self-understanding and and a new political mission by their conquerors. The conqueror has more than a little reason to delude themselves on those points and may require dissuading.

During the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, it was easy to see the US as an imperial power deluded that others yearned to follow orders and be re-made. The lesson of those wars, to my mind at least, is not that America is bad but that forcibly conscripting another country into your own ambitions is a disaster for everyone. Shame the Russisans are making that mistake and at horrifying cost to Ukraine. This time at least, the US is using its resources to help a nation retain its own sovereignty and its right to determine its own purposes.

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My thought exactly. The parallels between Ukraine and Iraq suggest many good reasons why Russia should have never invaded.

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It seems to me that most every argument offered by repubs is specious. Their inhumane approach to every topic of concern twists to affirm their selfish, skewed perspective towards the Treasury, equality, religion, sexuality, environment, freedom, law, voting, yeah, pretty much everything.

Excellent work, as always, Mr. Drezner.

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Very good piece.

There’s another bad analogy going around - to the Korean War, made by sophisticated people.

Prof. Branislav Slantchev demolishes the Korean War analogy in a piece on his blog.

It’s long and very much worth reading.

Lot of lessons here about how not to draw lessons from history.

Warning - font is tiny.

Spoiler - negotiations didn’t have much to do with ending the war.

https://slantchev.wordpress.com/2023/09/03/some-notes-on-the-korean-war-scenario/

Some Notes on the “Korean War” Scenario

September 1, 2023

Among the several arguments for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, the analogy with the Korean War armistice periodically pops up, as it did most recently in the article about Samuel Charap. It was made openly and in a most sustained manner by Carter Malkasian in Foreign Affairs this summer, so I will use this for my critique …

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Really well written, Dan. Mac Brown would be proud.

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Well said Professor!

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The academic left has long ago “internalized that America is the bad guy” and through decades of communicating that to blank slate undergraduates has entrenched that line of thinking in progressives. If you didn’t state that we’re looking at a Twitter rent by J.D. Vance, I would have assumed someone who wrote for The Grayzone or reads it, or is a member of or funds contributing fan of Squad members.

It’s both fascinating and nauseating to see the return of ultra conservatives to being huge fans of dictators - what was the America First alliance of Nazi sympathizers and communists in the late 1930s and 40s is alive again in “America First” Republicans and academic Left kooks.

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Republicans are openly discussing invading Mexico. Republicans are openly discussing future conflict with China. The Iraq-Ukraine comparisons are moronic deflections.

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Vance is the living embodiment of how democracies die, a weak man bought and paid for by the oligarch, Thiel who has demonstrated his disdain for The United States.

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Vance is the living embodiment of hoe democracies die. He is bought and paid for by the oligarch Thiel.

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Good post. The "mission creep" seems especially a weird complaint because Biden has successful stopped this so far. See how he shot down calls for a "no fly zone" which would have entailed real escalation and mission creep but that didn't happen. Likewise nobody that I know of is calling to "Liberate Transnistria!" which is what real mission creep could look like.

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> "As for the food issue, I’d like Senator Vance to guess which country withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. It takes most people only one guess, but given the senator’s ideological predilections I suspect he’ll need two."

I suspect he'll need three or four, maybe more.

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