Had to laugh at his book subtitle: "How Our Spoiled Elites Blew America’s Inheritance of Liberty, Security and Prosperity". Said the jellyfish worming his way into the affections of Donald Trump, you should pardon the mixed metaphor.
Gee, Professor Drezner, I never figured you for as a devotee of the Jeff Bezos/Thumper the Rabbit school of opinion writing—viz., “if you can’t say something nice, don’t say nothing at all.” And you’re not even writing for the Washington Post!
I’m sorry, but reading your take on Sen. Rubio is the intellectual equivalent of drinking a glass of room-temperature buttermilk that’s been standing outside the refrigerator for a couple of hours, though I guess without all the calories. In the old days when you wrote a column, well, sometimes you’d hit the nail on the head, sometimes you’d miss it with a loud thump, but here you just gave it a teeney-tiny tap!
According to you, “Mr. Rubio’s own hawkishness will mesh well with the MAGA view on Latin America; expect to see lots of American force used in that region to combat drug cartels and other malign actors.” Hey, deploying American combat troops in Mexico and all points south! That sounds like a lot of fun! Or doesn’t it? Do you have an opinion here, Dr. Drezner?
Also “humorous” that you can write an entire column about foreign affairs without mentioning Israel, much less Gaza. I’ll go way out on a limb and say that Rubio is, like Joe Biden, an aggressive supporter of that international war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu, thanks to the pressure from AIPAC and other blindly pro-Israel organizations. Marco is also, I would say, a willing captive of the Cuba Lobby, a political gang that presses the U.S. government to subject leftist regimes in Latin America to endless harassment, not to change those regimes for the better but simply to maintain itself as a “playa” in U.S. politics. Is it a good idea for American foreign policy to be driven by the interests of domestic pressure groups rather than the interests of the American people?
Now, you may agree with these characterizations, or you may disagree. But it would be nice to know which, instead of suffering through the scholarly pablum that you supplied.
Correct. And since Marco is going to work for a guy who has again gone on record as saying that he's going to throw members of Congress in jail for doing their constitutional duty, I wonder if that might suggest to you that Marco is, you know, a BAD GUY! (Also, I remember you earlier writing a piece titled "No One Should Kid Themselves About Trump's Second-Term Foreign Policy". Is that piece, I don't know, "non-operative" these days?)
"he's going to throw members of Congress in jail for doing their constitutional duty" This is a caricature of what Trump said, passed around gleefully by partisans. The truth is much different. In response to reporting that Liz Chaney and the Jan. 6 Committee may have withheld information from Congress, Trump stated on his Truth Social account, "She should go to Jail along with the rest of the Unselect Committee!"
Withholding, altering, or misrepresenting testimony before Congress would violate a variety laws, and indeed render one subject to jail. Your simplistic and unexamined statement is nothing more than propaganda.
Interesting to see all your commentary on nominees on changes in store for American foreign policymaking. But remember when you wrote about geopolitics on their own terms, and about 10 years ago or so (maybe 8 or 9 years?) evaluated the situation in Syria? At the time you were saying it was a bunch of bad alternatives and no good options and the best thing, or least worst thing for the US (notwithstanding, and really probably not for people in Syria) was a continued stalemate or deadlock.
Well we have certainly moved past that stage in Syria now. Do you have a take on the current situation?
Who is coming out on top in Syria, and who from the outside will be trying to be involved? In terms of external players the long list includes Israel, the Gulf States, Hizballah, Iran, the Shia-led Iraqi government, Turkey, and Russia. Iraq said it's not "just going to watch this" but what might the Iraqis actually do?
[Key point for geopolitical discussion 1- What next for Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in the surrounding region, even outside of Syria's borders?]
Turkey will have interest in seeing Syrian refugees return home. It has relations with many Syrian rebels and it wants PKK-ideologically Kurds in the country weakened or dead, but its appetite for paying the costs to achieve an ideal political situation in Syria is unknown, and likely limited. But its role can grow more the more its clients are empowered and the Russians and Iranians recede.
[Key point for geopolitical discussion 2 - What will Turkey's agenda in Syria be, how much will Erdogan invest in it, and how much will Turkish society tolerate? Related to this, it is pretty much a truism that Turkey has no ambition or goal for the PKK-affiliated, Kurdish led SDF that it not exist and be a political thing. But the Kurdish demographic is there and armed and will fight for survival, and Turkey's government does not seem to have geared up society for a full war of elimination, extermination, occupation. Turkey can support anti-SDF proxies to roll back SDF/Kurdish controls and lands on the margins to further particular Turkmen and Arab and sectarian interests, but all those groups have other priorities besides simply fighting Kurds.]
Will Israeli and Turkish spheres of influence and agendas be buffered by a band of local chaos and groups contending locally, or will they now be in a much greater degree of contact and friction than ever before?
[Key point for geopolitical discussion 3 - What will Turkey's and Israel's agendas in Syria be pressed independently and collide, or not collide? Depending on the growth of Turkey's role in Syria, will Turkey form an agenda relative to Lebanon?]
From the ashes of Hizballah, Asad, the Iranian proxy position in the Levant, even if I declare it precociously, Hamas, could we see what remains of fighting Palestinian loyalties be captured by more or less Sunni Islamist sectarian extremists along the continuum of HTS, Al-Qa'ida, ISIS. They would sporadically and symbolically strike at Israel when possible and be complete rejectionists as part of their appeal, but possibly also target Palestinian Christians for looting and as an available victim and to give members a sense of empowerment and small victories? And, their existence and celll formation ultimately would happen in Gaza, West Bank and Israel proper, and have cross border links into Syria and Lebanon, and soft links via Turkey, thus keeping the northern Levant and Israel's border as messy as ever for people on all sides of that border? Even with Iran becoming almost absent?
Glad to read this and...congrats on getting this into NYT Sunday>
Congrats on the NYT appearance!
Had to laugh at his book subtitle: "How Our Spoiled Elites Blew America’s Inheritance of Liberty, Security and Prosperity". Said the jellyfish worming his way into the affections of Donald Trump, you should pardon the mixed metaphor.
Gee, Professor Drezner, I never figured you for as a devotee of the Jeff Bezos/Thumper the Rabbit school of opinion writing—viz., “if you can’t say something nice, don’t say nothing at all.” And you’re not even writing for the Washington Post!
I’m sorry, but reading your take on Sen. Rubio is the intellectual equivalent of drinking a glass of room-temperature buttermilk that’s been standing outside the refrigerator for a couple of hours, though I guess without all the calories. In the old days when you wrote a column, well, sometimes you’d hit the nail on the head, sometimes you’d miss it with a loud thump, but here you just gave it a teeney-tiny tap!
According to you, “Mr. Rubio’s own hawkishness will mesh well with the MAGA view on Latin America; expect to see lots of American force used in that region to combat drug cartels and other malign actors.” Hey, deploying American combat troops in Mexico and all points south! That sounds like a lot of fun! Or doesn’t it? Do you have an opinion here, Dr. Drezner?
Also “humorous” that you can write an entire column about foreign affairs without mentioning Israel, much less Gaza. I’ll go way out on a limb and say that Rubio is, like Joe Biden, an aggressive supporter of that international war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu, thanks to the pressure from AIPAC and other blindly pro-Israel organizations. Marco is also, I would say, a willing captive of the Cuba Lobby, a political gang that presses the U.S. government to subject leftist regimes in Latin America to endless harassment, not to change those regimes for the better but simply to maintain itself as a “playa” in U.S. politics. Is it a good idea for American foreign policy to be driven by the interests of domestic pressure groups rather than the interests of the American people?
Now, you may agree with these characterizations, or you may disagree. But it would be nice to know which, instead of suffering through the scholarly pablum that you supplied.
So you're saying you didn't like it....
Correct. And since Marco is going to work for a guy who has again gone on record as saying that he's going to throw members of Congress in jail for doing their constitutional duty, I wonder if that might suggest to you that Marco is, you know, a BAD GUY! (Also, I remember you earlier writing a piece titled "No One Should Kid Themselves About Trump's Second-Term Foreign Policy". Is that piece, I don't know, "non-operative" these days?)
"he's going to throw members of Congress in jail for doing their constitutional duty" This is a caricature of what Trump said, passed around gleefully by partisans. The truth is much different. In response to reporting that Liz Chaney and the Jan. 6 Committee may have withheld information from Congress, Trump stated on his Truth Social account, "She should go to Jail along with the rest of the Unselect Committee!"
Withholding, altering, or misrepresenting testimony before Congress would violate a variety laws, and indeed render one subject to jail. Your simplistic and unexamined statement is nothing more than propaganda.
"And you’re probably right in your pre-existing belief on that! Double down on it!" 🤣 Thank you for this, I needed that belly laugh today
Interesting to see all your commentary on nominees on changes in store for American foreign policymaking. But remember when you wrote about geopolitics on their own terms, and about 10 years ago or so (maybe 8 or 9 years?) evaluated the situation in Syria? At the time you were saying it was a bunch of bad alternatives and no good options and the best thing, or least worst thing for the US (notwithstanding, and really probably not for people in Syria) was a continued stalemate or deadlock.
Well we have certainly moved past that stage in Syria now. Do you have a take on the current situation?
Who is coming out on top in Syria, and who from the outside will be trying to be involved? In terms of external players the long list includes Israel, the Gulf States, Hizballah, Iran, the Shia-led Iraqi government, Turkey, and Russia. Iraq said it's not "just going to watch this" but what might the Iraqis actually do?
[Key point for geopolitical discussion 1- What next for Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in the surrounding region, even outside of Syria's borders?]
Turkey will have interest in seeing Syrian refugees return home. It has relations with many Syrian rebels and it wants PKK-ideologically Kurds in the country weakened or dead, but its appetite for paying the costs to achieve an ideal political situation in Syria is unknown, and likely limited. But its role can grow more the more its clients are empowered and the Russians and Iranians recede.
[Key point for geopolitical discussion 2 - What will Turkey's agenda in Syria be, how much will Erdogan invest in it, and how much will Turkish society tolerate? Related to this, it is pretty much a truism that Turkey has no ambition or goal for the PKK-affiliated, Kurdish led SDF that it not exist and be a political thing. But the Kurdish demographic is there and armed and will fight for survival, and Turkey's government does not seem to have geared up society for a full war of elimination, extermination, occupation. Turkey can support anti-SDF proxies to roll back SDF/Kurdish controls and lands on the margins to further particular Turkmen and Arab and sectarian interests, but all those groups have other priorities besides simply fighting Kurds.]
Will Israeli and Turkish spheres of influence and agendas be buffered by a band of local chaos and groups contending locally, or will they now be in a much greater degree of contact and friction than ever before?
[Key point for geopolitical discussion 3 - What will Turkey's and Israel's agendas in Syria be pressed independently and collide, or not collide? Depending on the growth of Turkey's role in Syria, will Turkey form an agenda relative to Lebanon?]
From the ashes of Hizballah, Asad, the Iranian proxy position in the Levant, even if I declare it precociously, Hamas, could we see what remains of fighting Palestinian loyalties be captured by more or less Sunni Islamist sectarian extremists along the continuum of HTS, Al-Qa'ida, ISIS. They would sporadically and symbolically strike at Israel when possible and be complete rejectionists as part of their appeal, but possibly also target Palestinian Christians for looting and as an available victim and to give members a sense of empowerment and small victories? And, their existence and celll formation ultimately would happen in Gaza, West Bank and Israel proper, and have cross border links into Syria and Lebanon, and soft links via Turkey, thus keeping the northern Levant and Israel's border as messy as ever for people on all sides of that border? Even with Iran becoming almost absent?
FWIW, "like Joe Biden" crossed my mind when I read the line about staying on the median.
I hadn't fully considered the value of Rubio's personal network - thanks for that insight.