The Return of The Erosion of the Pillars of American Power

American structural power will decline slowly and then suddenly.

Photo by Brock DuPont on Unsplash

Five years ago, I wrote “This Time Is Different” for Foreign Affairs. Unfortunately, it’s aged well. Let’s revisit my argument, shall we?

The American foundations undergirding the liberal international order are in grave danger, and it is no longer possible to take the pillars of that order for granted. Think of the current moment as a game of Jenga in which multiple pieces have been removed but the tower still stands. As a result, some observers have concluded that the structure remains sturdy. But in fact, it is lacking many important parts and, on closer inspection, is teetering ever so slightly. Like a Jenga tower, the order will continue to stand upright—right until the moment it collapses. Every effort should be made to preserve the liberal international order, but it is also time to start thinking about what might come after its end….

The factors that give the United States an advantage in the international system—deep capital markets, liberal ideas, world-class higher education—have winner-take-all dynamics. Other actors will be reluctant to switch away from the dollar, Wall Street, democracy, and the Ivy League. These sectors can withstand a few hits. Excessive use of financial statecraft, alliances with overseas populists, or prolonged bouts of anti-immigrant hysteria, however, will force even close allies to start thinking about alternatives. The American advantage in these areas will go bankrupt much like Mike Campbell in The Sun Also Rises did: “gradually and then suddenly.” Right now, the United States’ Jenga tower is still standing. Remove a few more blocks, however, and the wobbling will become noticeable to the unaided eye.

The key point I was trying to make was that, through decades of effort and resources, the United States had made itself a focal point across a wide array of sectors ranging from financial capital to, well, human capital. American universities were dynamic enough to attract the best of the best from the rest of the world to become faculty. U.S. higher education became a dominant export sector, drawing in paying international students, thereby running a very robust trade surplus.

Focal points are, by definition, difficult to dislodge — but not impossible. Elon Musk has managed to repurpose Twitter enough to degrade its utility as a focal point for commentary and information, enabling viable alternatives to emerge.

Now let’s pivot over to the Wall Street Journal’s Douglas Belkin, who profiles Christopher Rufo and what he would like the Trump administration to do to one of the key pillars of American influence — higher education:

Rufo said he is meeting with members of the Trump administration next month. He has said he thinks colleges and universities have been taken over by the left, and he wants to recapture them by cutting federal money to schools that continue to engage in DEI practices. He also wants to excise race-based affirmative action from any institution with which the federal government does business.

He has a particular animus toward elite universities, which he says traded merit and rigor for neo-Marxism and discrimination against white and Asian people. 

“It’s time to really put the hammer to these institutions and to start withdrawing potentially billions of dollars in funding until they follow the law,” he said….

Rufo supports closing the Education Department and forcing schools to advertise the earnings of graduates from specific programs so students understand their risks when they enroll. If students default on their loans, he says universities should have responsibility for paying some of it back.

Ultimately, Rufo would like to see the number of Americans who enroll in four-year colleges slashed by more than half. (emphasis added)

He hasn’t met Linda McMahon, Trump’s nominee to lead the Education Department, but the secretary pick leads the America First Policy Institute, a conservative think tank that has featured Rufo’s work prominently. 

It should be noted that Rufo popping off is not the same thing as an incoming Trump administration enacting his policy preferences. Still, much of what Rufo is proposing would enervate these institutions.

Furthermore, universities are already responding to an incoming Trump administration by cautioning their international students to not be overseas after Trump’s inauguration. The University of Massachusetts issued a travel advisory, explaining: “given that a new presidential administration can enact new policies on their first day in office (January 20), and based on previous experience with travel bans that were enacted in the first Trump Administration in 2016, the Office of Global Affairs is making this advisory out of an abundance of caution to hopefully prevent any possible travel disruption to members of our international community.” Wesleyan issued a similar warning: “With the presidential inauguration happening on Monday, January 20, 2025, and uncertainties around President-elect Donald Trump’s plans for immigration-related policy, the safest way to avoid difficulty re-entering the country is to be physically present in the U.S. on January 19th and the days thereafter of the spring semester.”

MAGA Republicans keep insisting that they care deeply about making America great again. They also insist that they want to improve the U.S. balance of trade. It is becoming clear, however, that what they want to do more is to weaken the pillars of American power and influence that they do not control.