Well, I hate to be a doom oracle, but with what is happening with Elon Musk's activities aimed solely at the destruction of the government (who in their right mind thinks he is making the government more efficient and ridding it of fraud, waste and abuse?), the Trump administration highly likely to ignore court orders and with no enforcement mechanisms in place and the continuing, and soon-to-be more massive voter suppression legislation across the US, do people really believe the administration and all of the complicit Republicans are going to give up power? So many are focused on 2026 and 2028 and how Democrats have to "win back" the voter. However, the "Mump" regime (per Timothy Snyder, Musk-Trump or Mump) has all of the levers of power and are not going to give it up, and frankly, are running circles around Democrats, media, voters, the international community, you name it. Look at how they are gleefully firing thousands, throwing Ukraine under the bus, and the list goes on. It is a nauseating and frightening spectacle. It will not end well, and it will be too late to do anything about it as people "wake up" to what was obvious. The country is being destroyed before our very eyes.
Actually, I think I should save my scorn for people who continue to support MAGA, not this group. However, I will not be accepting this group with their slates wiped clean.
I agree that primal-screaming at regretful Trump voters is unhelpful in bringing them back into any future political coalition. But John Stoehr gets at a fundamental challenge to that next step: how do you persuade people who are so steeped in right-wing media delusions (fentanyl streaming over the border, etc) that they are functionally, politically insane?
You don't. There are millions of voters who voted for Trump who aren't completely delusional, but were low information voters who grasped onto one or two things, like Stacy White. You go for them.
Yes. I think that elected Republicans have already signed up for their own gelding and comitted MAGA members are all-in. That's why my philosophy is to focus on the normies. Those people who did believe that Trump would be "restrained" by the other Republicans much as he was in his first term and are now finding out how wrong they were. Trump may not care but perhaps they can make other electeds do so.
No thanks! I can manage rage at all sorts of people, including both unrepentant MAGA voters and the regret caucus. I contain multitudes. Nor do I think expressing schadenfreude on Bluesky is going to affect low information voters. Staci White did not read your post.
Finally, this remains the white whale of Democrats: "to better inform voters rather than insult them." We did! The media did! Everyone did! Even Trump did!
They didn't hear.
We have to give up on the "if only [insert media/pundits/party] had talked about how bad Trump was, voters would have recognized." No, they wouldn't have. No, they won't. There is no magical communication that is going to get certain voters to change their minds.
On the topic of "accepting back some true morons into the anti-Trump coalition," what do you make of this theory, sugested by the Bulwark's Jonathan Last among others:
It used to be that cranks were more or less evenly divided between the parties, and therefore they did not have much political influence. But in recent years we have seen a sorting of cranks moving from the Democratic party to the GOP and people who were not cranks moving from the GOP to the Democrats. As this has happened, cranks who were former Democrats have attained increasing status in the MAGA coalition: see former Democrats RFK, Tulsi Gabbard, and even out crank-in-chief DOnald Trump himself. Based on the sheer numbers of cranks, this trade has been extremely unfavorable to the Democrats, and unless the Democratis party can find a way to retrieve significant numbers of these cranks back from the GOP, the cranks are ultimately going to rule the country.
Four months ago we all were fighting for every vote we could find, why would we now turn them away? There’s another election coming in less than two years and we still need every vote we can get. Providing aid and comfort for those who change will make it easier for others to follow them. Save the vitriol for the ones that continue to support Musk/Trump.
On this: "As for voters not being completely informed, I’m afraid the political scientist in me cannot be shocked about that. Welcome to American voters — there is so much they don’t know! The solution to that is not scorn, but knowledge. Well-informed voters preferred Harris over Trump last year, so maybe the key to the anti-Trump electoral future is to better inform voters rather than insult them."
While I agree, the question is how to get these voters who shun news outlets that have even a modicum of accuracy, and who retreat into their cozy bubbles on social media (including here on Substack) to understand and comprehend facts and factual representations of the political positions?
Clearly, the Left's reliance on old line media is not going to work, and the ecosystem for far right influencers is far more lucrative than anything that has yet to appear on the left, or even center. Fact is that people who were "progressive" voices like TYT and Ana Kasparian have jumped to the MAGA gravy train and probably increased their incomes substantially.
This might be an unsolvable problem in the current media environment.
"so maybe the key to the anti-Trump electoral future is to better inform voters rather than insult them.”
OK, but how do you intend to do this? The MAGA crowd only watch Fox News or worse and are highly unlikely to ever come across a newsletter like this. Their almost total lack of real information is the heart of the problem.
I think a big part of Dems problem right now is lumping EVERY Trump voter into the same group. Talk to some. There's a HUGE difference between someone that shows up to his rallies in MAGA gear and someone that didn't pay attention to politics until Election Day, then voted for Trump because prices were high under Biden. I know a lot of Trump voters. Some are irredeemable and unrepentant assholes or worse. But most of the ones I know are (gasp) good people. Just writing these people off is a huge mistake. Many are still gettable voters, but the fact liberals are cancelling them is just shrinking the tent of voters we can ever get.
Barking up the wrong tree. What/who elected Our Mad King (wannabe) Donald the 1st for the second time (you just can't make this shyte up) were the 4M+ Dem voters who just stayed home and thereby elected DJT by default. Actually, the fossil fuel lobby is celebrating Tramp's re-election and the huge distraction away from our existential climate collapse. Recent James Hansen,et.al., paper restates C3S data: the global ave. surface temp increased 0.4 degC over just the last 2 yrs., so 0.2 degC annually, and, if this trend continues/increases, then we may see a 3.04 degC increase by 2032, 7 yrs. from now. Last one out, turn off the lights.
Yes. Frustrating as it is, raging and insulting voters who realize that the new administration is not what they hoped for just continues the tribal split that will not be resolved. Welcoming, and appreciating the opening of minds that comes with the realization that destroying the government is not actually a good thing, will build the votes for sanity. I write this about voters - not the elected officials who know better but sold their souls!
I get what you are saying, but these voters are lost. Until we hit rock bottom, it won’t matter. They say they are upset, but, IMO, they will just jump to the next liar and believe them if it fits some conspiracy theory they believe
I hear you. You could very well be right. Recognizing that hope is not a strategy, I do think we cannot give up on the idea that some will see they didn’t think they were voting for what is happening. I don’t think we can berate or persuade them to see this. They will have to come to this on their own or with their neighbors. If and when they do, the fact is the Dems cannot quite win on their own. We need to welcome allies, not be fooled by those knowingly lying.
“ Most Americans *aren’t* very online. Especially on the weekend. Most Americans (seriously, look at voting patterns) want very much to not have to care what the government is doing.
They want a government that helps them when needed, keeps the more serious form of crime fairly hazardous for the criminals, and protect them from annoying foreigners and others.
Come Monday a *lot* of people are going to find themselves being forced to pay attention.
And they are going to be very, very, resentful.
Momentum is as much a thing in politics as it is in physics. It takes time to change direction. But once it gets going it will run right over the Trump, Musk, and a whole lot of their cheerleaders.“
Most Americans didn’t vote at all in the last election. *Those* are the ones we want! Get a couple hundred thousand of those in the right places and Democrats will have the House, Senate, and White House.
Well, Dan, the MAGA element voting tRump in still gives him (relatively) high approval marks, and when those people start to suffer as the Musk regime's policies really bite, I take great pleasure in rubbing their faces in their wanton and deliberate ignorance...aging-out white guy over vibrant, mixed-ethnicity woman, uh-huh.
They baked it, they eat it, as a wise man once said.
Obstacles can be opportunities, even those that appear insurmountable, like converting disaffected 2024 Trump voters back to D voters in 2026 and 2028. To me, the larger and more worrisome problem is the large number of Biden voters who sat out this election by reason of apathy. According to Michael Podhorzer, they might have amounted to 19 million voters. These voters might nevertheless be more fertile ground for finding 2026 and 2028 D voters. Maybe we first should work on getting these people off the couch and back to the ballot-box. They might be an easier reach than the Trumpists. (Podhorzer source: https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelpodhorzer/p/how-trump-won?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=10652)
I've noticed that the far right will almost instantly accept and even celebrate anyone who changes sides. I know a person who became disillusioned and felt betrayed by some votes in our Democratic state legislature. She suddenly became a Republican, and within a few months, she was chair of a Republican women's group. Local Democratic activists say it takes years of slogging through long hours of volunteer work to get to any kind of leadership in the party. The left tends to reject and expect some sort of penance from former Trump supporters. Instead of shaming people, I'd rather give them the benefit of the doubt, welcome their change of heart, and take the opportunity to build a movement.
That's probably the best way to think about the leopards eating faces dilemma. Try not not to revel in their pain, but at the same time the only way this ends before the complete collapse of the federal government is if there is a lot of pain.
I agree with the basic argument you make. However satisfying schadenfreude may be, it is not a good tactic if the strategy is for pro democracy, non MAGA candidates to win again in 2026 and 2028. Just because a Trump supporter may get harmed by Trump’s policies and come to regret their vote, it does not mean they will automatically switch sides and support Democrats. They could easily choose to sit out all politics and stop voting. So the Democrats and all pro democracy people need to offer them a reason to choose that alternative.
Well, I hate to be a doom oracle, but with what is happening with Elon Musk's activities aimed solely at the destruction of the government (who in their right mind thinks he is making the government more efficient and ridding it of fraud, waste and abuse?), the Trump administration highly likely to ignore court orders and with no enforcement mechanisms in place and the continuing, and soon-to-be more massive voter suppression legislation across the US, do people really believe the administration and all of the complicit Republicans are going to give up power? So many are focused on 2026 and 2028 and how Democrats have to "win back" the voter. However, the "Mump" regime (per Timothy Snyder, Musk-Trump or Mump) has all of the levers of power and are not going to give it up, and frankly, are running circles around Democrats, media, voters, the international community, you name it. Look at how they are gleefully firing thousands, throwing Ukraine under the bus, and the list goes on. It is a nauseating and frightening spectacle. It will not end well, and it will be too late to do anything about it as people "wake up" to what was obvious. The country is being destroyed before our very eyes.
Actually, I think I should save my scorn for people who continue to support MAGA, not this group. However, I will not be accepting this group with their slates wiped clean.
I agree that primal-screaming at regretful Trump voters is unhelpful in bringing them back into any future political coalition. But John Stoehr gets at a fundamental challenge to that next step: how do you persuade people who are so steeped in right-wing media delusions (fentanyl streaming over the border, etc) that they are functionally, politically insane?
https://www.editorialboard.com/how-do-you-reason-with-people-who-are-politically-insane/
You don't. There are millions of voters who voted for Trump who aren't completely delusional, but were low information voters who grasped onto one or two things, like Stacy White. You go for them.
Yes. I think that elected Republicans have already signed up for their own gelding and comitted MAGA members are all-in. That's why my philosophy is to focus on the normies. Those people who did believe that Trump would be "restrained" by the other Republicans much as he was in his first term and are now finding out how wrong they were. Trump may not care but perhaps they can make other electeds do so.
https://publis324843.substack.com/p/focus-on-the-normies?r=7av8t
No thanks! I can manage rage at all sorts of people, including both unrepentant MAGA voters and the regret caucus. I contain multitudes. Nor do I think expressing schadenfreude on Bluesky is going to affect low information voters. Staci White did not read your post.
Finally, this remains the white whale of Democrats: "to better inform voters rather than insult them." We did! The media did! Everyone did! Even Trump did!
They didn't hear.
We have to give up on the "if only [insert media/pundits/party] had talked about how bad Trump was, voters would have recognized." No, they wouldn't have. No, they won't. There is no magical communication that is going to get certain voters to change their minds.
Except they already have changed their minds.
It seems your hearing is about as good as theirs...
Uh huh. Getting quoted in an article isn’t the same thing as actually voting, so I’ll remain disbelieving.
You could always start by doing some reading. I hear that does wonders.
You hear? Good to know you have no direct experience with it.
So more than you. Hahaha
Wow, dude, you walked yourself right into that one.
Ah, you just thought I did. Of course.
On the topic of "accepting back some true morons into the anti-Trump coalition," what do you make of this theory, sugested by the Bulwark's Jonathan Last among others:
It used to be that cranks were more or less evenly divided between the parties, and therefore they did not have much political influence. But in recent years we have seen a sorting of cranks moving from the Democratic party to the GOP and people who were not cranks moving from the GOP to the Democrats. As this has happened, cranks who were former Democrats have attained increasing status in the MAGA coalition: see former Democrats RFK, Tulsi Gabbard, and even out crank-in-chief DOnald Trump himself. Based on the sheer numbers of cranks, this trade has been extremely unfavorable to the Democrats, and unless the Democratis party can find a way to retrieve significant numbers of these cranks back from the GOP, the cranks are ultimately going to rule the country.
Are you suggesting crank tariffs to fix the crank deficit between parties?
Four months ago we all were fighting for every vote we could find, why would we now turn them away? There’s another election coming in less than two years and we still need every vote we can get. Providing aid and comfort for those who change will make it easier for others to follow them. Save the vitriol for the ones that continue to support Musk/Trump.
On this: "As for voters not being completely informed, I’m afraid the political scientist in me cannot be shocked about that. Welcome to American voters — there is so much they don’t know! The solution to that is not scorn, but knowledge. Well-informed voters preferred Harris over Trump last year, so maybe the key to the anti-Trump electoral future is to better inform voters rather than insult them."
While I agree, the question is how to get these voters who shun news outlets that have even a modicum of accuracy, and who retreat into their cozy bubbles on social media (including here on Substack) to understand and comprehend facts and factual representations of the political positions?
Clearly, the Left's reliance on old line media is not going to work, and the ecosystem for far right influencers is far more lucrative than anything that has yet to appear on the left, or even center. Fact is that people who were "progressive" voices like TYT and Ana Kasparian have jumped to the MAGA gravy train and probably increased their incomes substantially.
This might be an unsolvable problem in the current media environment.
I’m sticking with schadenfreude, thanks. Suffering consequences is the ONLY way trump voters will change whatever mind they still have.
"so maybe the key to the anti-Trump electoral future is to better inform voters rather than insult them.”
OK, but how do you intend to do this? The MAGA crowd only watch Fox News or worse and are highly unlikely to ever come across a newsletter like this. Their almost total lack of real information is the heart of the problem.
I think a big part of Dems problem right now is lumping EVERY Trump voter into the same group. Talk to some. There's a HUGE difference between someone that shows up to his rallies in MAGA gear and someone that didn't pay attention to politics until Election Day, then voted for Trump because prices were high under Biden. I know a lot of Trump voters. Some are irredeemable and unrepentant assholes or worse. But most of the ones I know are (gasp) good people. Just writing these people off is a huge mistake. Many are still gettable voters, but the fact liberals are cancelling them is just shrinking the tent of voters we can ever get.
Barking up the wrong tree. What/who elected Our Mad King (wannabe) Donald the 1st for the second time (you just can't make this shyte up) were the 4M+ Dem voters who just stayed home and thereby elected DJT by default. Actually, the fossil fuel lobby is celebrating Tramp's re-election and the huge distraction away from our existential climate collapse. Recent James Hansen,et.al., paper restates C3S data: the global ave. surface temp increased 0.4 degC over just the last 2 yrs., so 0.2 degC annually, and, if this trend continues/increases, then we may see a 3.04 degC increase by 2032, 7 yrs. from now. Last one out, turn off the lights.
Yes. Frustrating as it is, raging and insulting voters who realize that the new administration is not what they hoped for just continues the tribal split that will not be resolved. Welcoming, and appreciating the opening of minds that comes with the realization that destroying the government is not actually a good thing, will build the votes for sanity. I write this about voters - not the elected officials who know better but sold their souls!
I get what you are saying, but these voters are lost. Until we hit rock bottom, it won’t matter. They say they are upset, but, IMO, they will just jump to the next liar and believe them if it fits some conspiracy theory they believe
I hear you. You could very well be right. Recognizing that hope is not a strategy, I do think we cannot give up on the idea that some will see they didn’t think they were voting for what is happening. I don’t think we can berate or persuade them to see this. They will have to come to this on their own or with their neighbors. If and when they do, the fact is the Dems cannot quite win on their own. We need to welcome allies, not be fooled by those knowingly lying.
A couple of weeks ago on Bluesky https://bsky.app/profile/wiredog.bsky.social/post/3lh723ujtsc2i
I said
“ Most Americans *aren’t* very online. Especially on the weekend. Most Americans (seriously, look at voting patterns) want very much to not have to care what the government is doing.
They want a government that helps them when needed, keeps the more serious form of crime fairly hazardous for the criminals, and protect them from annoying foreigners and others.
Come Monday a *lot* of people are going to find themselves being forced to pay attention.
And they are going to be very, very, resentful.
Momentum is as much a thing in politics as it is in physics. It takes time to change direction. But once it gets going it will run right over the Trump, Musk, and a whole lot of their cheerleaders.“
Most Americans didn’t vote at all in the last election. *Those* are the ones we want! Get a couple hundred thousand of those in the right places and Democrats will have the House, Senate, and White House.
Well, Dan, the MAGA element voting tRump in still gives him (relatively) high approval marks, and when those people start to suffer as the Musk regime's policies really bite, I take great pleasure in rubbing their faces in their wanton and deliberate ignorance...aging-out white guy over vibrant, mixed-ethnicity woman, uh-huh.
They baked it, they eat it, as a wise man once said.
Obstacles can be opportunities, even those that appear insurmountable, like converting disaffected 2024 Trump voters back to D voters in 2026 and 2028. To me, the larger and more worrisome problem is the large number of Biden voters who sat out this election by reason of apathy. According to Michael Podhorzer, they might have amounted to 19 million voters. These voters might nevertheless be more fertile ground for finding 2026 and 2028 D voters. Maybe we first should work on getting these people off the couch and back to the ballot-box. They might be an easier reach than the Trumpists. (Podhorzer source: https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelpodhorzer/p/how-trump-won?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=10652)
I've noticed that the far right will almost instantly accept and even celebrate anyone who changes sides. I know a person who became disillusioned and felt betrayed by some votes in our Democratic state legislature. She suddenly became a Republican, and within a few months, she was chair of a Republican women's group. Local Democratic activists say it takes years of slogging through long hours of volunteer work to get to any kind of leadership in the party. The left tends to reject and expect some sort of penance from former Trump supporters. Instead of shaming people, I'd rather give them the benefit of the doubt, welcome their change of heart, and take the opportunity to build a movement.
That's probably the best way to think about the leopards eating faces dilemma. Try not not to revel in their pain, but at the same time the only way this ends before the complete collapse of the federal government is if there is a lot of pain.
I agree with the basic argument you make. However satisfying schadenfreude may be, it is not a good tactic if the strategy is for pro democracy, non MAGA candidates to win again in 2026 and 2028. Just because a Trump supporter may get harmed by Trump’s policies and come to regret their vote, it does not mean they will automatically switch sides and support Democrats. They could easily choose to sit out all politics and stop voting. So the Democrats and all pro democracy people need to offer them a reason to choose that alternative.