"Let's finish the job", mewls the hard-liners, in a pathetic echo from the Vietnam War era, where diehards railed at Nixon/Kissinger for failing to "take it all the way" to the North Vietnamese — nuke them? — and "sold out" our So. Vietnam allies.
Every failure to achieve militarily US foreign-policy goals always results in hard-liners whining about "finishing the job", beginning with the Korean War and to the present Iranian "excursion"...these people just never learn, but it doesn't stop them from repeating their plaints ad nauseum.
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Even if Iran opens the strait, they’ve just proven the value and viability of closing it, essentially forcing the U.S. into a ceasefire. And the U.S. has proven it either can’t or won’t force the strait open should Iran close it again to apply leverage.
Trump's biggest problem is that the Democrats might retake the House in November. That means he will be impeached, after a year of loud hearings on all kinds of corruption, including the Epstein files.
Trump is a very shortsighted man (to say the least). So, he got himself into this mess where you can't guarantee that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons, without a regime change. But you can't have a regime change without a massive US ground invasion.
(Which everybody already knew, going back to Obama. That's why Obama made the deal he did. Maybe the only way to deal with Iran is to kick the can down the road with unsatisfactory agreements for 100 years, or until the regime falls internally?)
But I think that by now, Trump DOES understand his current bargaining situation. So what is he is doing with this two-day "We have a deal"--"No, we don't have a deal" cycle, which has repeated over a dozen times in the past months?
Well, he's got five months to get independent voters to vote Republican again. So he is massaging the issue daily: he's trying to keep oil prices from exploding further, and he is avoiding a massive ground invasion, at least until after the midterms.
Another result of high oil prices: huge profits for US oil companies. Is that fulfillment of the implicit deal, before the 2024 election, if they donated $1 billion? Will they share some profits by donating to Republicans in the 2026 elections?
For example, at $100 per barrel, Russia makes huge profits. That and the elimination of sanctions enable it to sell oil at $100 to Europe. The profits can be shared with Iran in the form of food and weapons.
Ukraine seems to be weighing in. Russia just banned the export of diesel due to Ukraine vaporizing a good chunk of Russian refining capacity. And Ukraine just restarted attacking oil export infrastructure. Maybe it doesn’t matter how much Dumb Donnie wants to help the Russians.
Hindsight is slways unflattering but I think the hard working staff's predictions of failure were not Olympic level insight. But you can't get away from the fact they're batting 100! That's pretty good in Foreign Politcy prognostications.
Someone commented sarcastically about the Iran failure, 'let's hope they have a Plan B'. In my opinion this regime didn't even had a Plan A.
Good quote Arthur. Though I'm inclined to think they had one which was wildly stupid and unrealistic. They did after all do a lot of bombing.
"Let's finish the job", mewls the hard-liners, in a pathetic echo from the Vietnam War era, where diehards railed at Nixon/Kissinger for failing to "take it all the way" to the North Vietnamese — nuke them? — and "sold out" our So. Vietnam allies.
Every failure to achieve militarily US foreign-policy goals always results in hard-liners whining about "finishing the job", beginning with the Korean War and to the present Iranian "excursion"...these people just never learn, but it doesn't stop them from repeating their plaints ad nauseum.
TBF, Plan A was regime change. Plan B apparently was to pretend Plan A had succeeded.
I'm not sure where we are in the alphabet now. We do seem to have moved past "We sank their Navy and have TOTAL AIR DOMINANCE so that means we won!"
As to quotes that can be pertinent here, I'm a fan of Ygritte's line from Game of Thrones: "You know nothing Jon Snow."
I am unfortunately required to inform you that as the first person to quote Game of Thrones here you have lost the comments and should consider deleting your account to avoid repeating this incident in the future.
Remember, friends don't let friends use GoT for basic political takes
This comment is vastly more embarrassing.
Sir my pride is not important here I am doing a public service
In other words, the admin lived up to expectations…..
I think it's cute you imagine they HAVE a learning curve….
Ok. I must be missing something obvious. Iran is giving up a major pressure point by opening Hormuz. What are they getting for it? Anyone?
Even if Iran opens the strait, they’ve just proven the value and viability of closing it, essentially forcing the U.S. into a ceasefire. And the U.S. has proven it either can’t or won’t force the strait open should Iran close it again to apply leverage.
What can be opened can also be quickly closed...it's called "leverage".
Trump's biggest problem is that the Democrats might retake the House in November. That means he will be impeached, after a year of loud hearings on all kinds of corruption, including the Epstein files.
Trump is a very shortsighted man (to say the least). So, he got himself into this mess where you can't guarantee that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons, without a regime change. But you can't have a regime change without a massive US ground invasion.
(Which everybody already knew, going back to Obama. That's why Obama made the deal he did. Maybe the only way to deal with Iran is to kick the can down the road with unsatisfactory agreements for 100 years, or until the regime falls internally?)
But I think that by now, Trump DOES understand his current bargaining situation. So what is he is doing with this two-day "We have a deal"--"No, we don't have a deal" cycle, which has repeated over a dozen times in the past months?
Well, he's got five months to get independent voters to vote Republican again. So he is massaging the issue daily: he's trying to keep oil prices from exploding further, and he is avoiding a massive ground invasion, at least until after the midterms.
As to other quotes that might apply here, I think of Ygritte's line from Game of Thrones: "You know nothing, Jon Snow."
Please mention the price of oil and the role it plays in all this.
Another result of high oil prices: huge profits for US oil companies. Is that fulfillment of the implicit deal, before the 2024 election, if they donated $1 billion? Will they share some profits by donating to Republicans in the 2026 elections?
For example, at $100 per barrel, Russia makes huge profits. That and the elimination of sanctions enable it to sell oil at $100 to Europe. The profits can be shared with Iran in the form of food and weapons.
Or am I missing something?
Ukraine seems to be weighing in. Russia just banned the export of diesel due to Ukraine vaporizing a good chunk of Russian refining capacity. And Ukraine just restarted attacking oil export infrastructure. Maybe it doesn’t matter how much Dumb Donnie wants to help the Russians.
Hindsight is slways unflattering but I think the hard working staff's predictions of failure were not Olympic level insight. But you can't get away from the fact they're batting 100! That's pretty good in Foreign Politcy prognostications.