A coolheaded appraisal offering much food for thought. As historians we are used to knowing how things turned out and building a narrative backward that; but it's very different from when we must make choices and decisions in the middle of events, with no clear idea of what ultimate outcomes will be.
People need to prepare for a long war in Ukraine. Think Iran-Iraq. Korean War would be an optimistic scenario. Good news is no US/Western troops are on the ground dying. That would keep Western popular opinion from really rising against the war (I doubt hardly any Western votes were affected by the Iran-Iraq war even though the West clearly aided 1 side).
A fracturing Western alliance also makes no sense. Both China and Russia are showing themselves to be negatives towards both American and European interests. If the West wants markets, there’s a burgeoning India.
Biggest risks in the West are internal (home-made cynical opportunistic authoritarians).
I'm not sure there was ever a point in the Cold War that there was a consensus we were winning, at least till the late 80s. From the technological shocks of the Soviets' quick nuclear catchup followed by Sputnik to the quagmire and loss of Vietnam to 70s malaise and conviction that Soviet troop numbers and military bearing were surpassing our decadent consumer society, the best most people hoped for was keeping the status quo going.
(Reagan was an exception, but I suspect most people thought that was rhetoric. I'm not sure he didn't.)
Most science fiction set in the 21st century (and often beyond) just assumed a surviving Soviet Union if it didn't posit nuclear armageddon. It would be interesting to see just how many books and movies pre-1991 had a United States and not a USSR in their hypothetical futures.
The Cold War was a scary time. I grew up in McLean Va and by the time I was 12 I knew what my chances were if Brezhnev or someone pushed the button… Hecj, we’re still talking about it decades later:
agree on need to communicate a strategic objective so Americans know what type of success we are aiming for.
A coolheaded appraisal offering much food for thought. As historians we are used to knowing how things turned out and building a narrative backward that; but it's very different from when we must make choices and decisions in the middle of events, with no clear idea of what ultimate outcomes will be.
People need to prepare for a long war in Ukraine. Think Iran-Iraq. Korean War would be an optimistic scenario. Good news is no US/Western troops are on the ground dying. That would keep Western popular opinion from really rising against the war (I doubt hardly any Western votes were affected by the Iran-Iraq war even though the West clearly aided 1 side).
A fracturing Western alliance also makes no sense. Both China and Russia are showing themselves to be negatives towards both American and European interests. If the West wants markets, there’s a burgeoning India.
Biggest risks in the West are internal (home-made cynical opportunistic authoritarians).
I'm not sure there was ever a point in the Cold War that there was a consensus we were winning, at least till the late 80s. From the technological shocks of the Soviets' quick nuclear catchup followed by Sputnik to the quagmire and loss of Vietnam to 70s malaise and conviction that Soviet troop numbers and military bearing were surpassing our decadent consumer society, the best most people hoped for was keeping the status quo going.
(Reagan was an exception, but I suspect most people thought that was rhetoric. I'm not sure he didn't.)
Most science fiction set in the 21st century (and often beyond) just assumed a surviving Soviet Union if it didn't posit nuclear armageddon. It would be interesting to see just how many books and movies pre-1991 had a United States and not a USSR in their hypothetical futures.
The Cold War was a scary time. I grew up in McLean Va and by the time I was 12 I knew what my chances were if Brezhnev or someone pushed the button… Hecj, we’re still talking about it decades later:
https://www.tor.com/2023/02/21/take-cover-five-cold-war-era-stories-featuring-fallout-shelters/