Three Mysterious Mainstream Media Non-Stories
Why aren't these events -- or non-events -- getting more media coverage?
As the country awaits Joe Biden to either quell or surrender to the turmoil within the Democratic Party (more on that later in the weekend), the hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World has been reading a lot of political media over the past week. And what has been striking is not the stories that are running but the stories that are not. The media is falling all over itself in self-flagellation over not covering the “is Biden losing his marbles” angle. In the process of digging out of that hole, however, the media is letting a bunch of other media holes to develop.
This is not to say that there has been zero MSM coverage of the three stories I am about to detail — after all, I’m gonna be quoting media coverage to make my points! Still, these stories merit a hell of a lot more media focus than they are currently receiving.
First, the U.S. economy is arriving at the desired soft landing. Semafor’s Jordan Weissmann made this point earlier in the week after good inflation numbers and solid employment numbers:
Take the latest data on inflation, which once again appears to be simmering down after flaring a bit earlier this year. In May, the Fed’s preferred measure of consumer prices stayed entirely flat for the month, and was up just 2.6% over the year. The real life signs have been easy to spot, too. Fast food chains are suddenly offering $5 meal deals. Big box stores are discounting groceries.
As for the job market: It’s slowing, yes, but still plenty healthy. On average, employers added 177,000 workers a month to their payrolls during the last quarter, last week’s Labor Department update showed. That’s a downshift from the last couple years of rapid growth, but still on par with 2019. The unemployment rate has begun to drift up a bit, but at 4.1%, remains low by historical standards. Much of the increase appears to have been driven by a rise in the number of job hunters, who’ve been drawn in by the strong market, rather than the dip in hiring.
With inflation and hiring both cooling a bit, markets are betting that the Fed will finally deliver a long-awaited interest rate cut by September, a prospect that would boost stocks and offer some relief to mortgage borrowers….
It’s entirely plausible that the economy is heading for a Goldilocks point, where inflation keeps floating toward the Fed’s official 2% target, job growth continues chugging at a rate that puts less pressure on wages and prices, and the Fed feels it has room to cut rates before the election. Come September, Powell could well be explaining at a press conference why he’s confident the country has quelled its inflation problem — the sort of thing that would be political mana for an incumbent president, if voters were paying attention.
For the time being, good economic news is being buried, however, by the post-debate discussion of Biden’s age and cognitive health. The latest inflation numbers dropped with blip the day after he and Donald Trump squared off. The latest jobs report fell while Democrats were busy debating whether it was time for a new candidate.
Weissmann’s story inspired at least one similar story from the Washington Post’s Jeff Stein, who wrote, “Democrats inside and outside the administration could only greet the data with a feeling of exasperation, knowing the news would be overshadowed by a second week of turmoil over President Biden’s fitness to lead the presidential ticket. Compounding their fears is the prospect that former president Donald Trump, if victorious in November, could for a second time inherit a growing economy that Democrats believe they deserve credit for fixing.”
Mostly, however, there has been little coverage of the economy outside of the economics pages — and if Biden gets mentioned, it is only to mention how the good economic news is not benefitting Biden.1
Second, there should be way more coverage of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s complete lack of polling momentum. If you were an RFK Jr. supporter,2 the past two weeks should have been a gift from the gods. A faltering Biden and a lying, felonious Trump should be nudging undecided voters to consider the available alternatives. RFK Jr. has a faintly recognizable family name. With so many voters currently despairing over the major party choices, a smart, savvy RFK campaign should have done anything and everything to remind disaffected voters that he is running!
Instead, according to the Boston Globe’s James Pindell, RFK Jr. is… chilling in Maine?
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate polling a distant third in the 2024 presidential election, faced a different question inside the flagship L.L. Bean store in Freeport, Maine.
Would he like to join to their loyalty program to unlock coupons and make it easier to return the three flannel shirts and patterned blue swim trunks he was purchasing?
He agreed, responding with “Robert” and “Kennedy” when asked for his first and last name….
With less than four months until the general election, these past two weeks could have provided an unprecedented moment ripe for Kennedy. Biden’s poor performance in the first presidential debate in late June sent Democrats scrambling to figure out what’s next.
Some diehard Kennedy supporters in line ahead of a campaign event in Freeport earlier in the evening were having a similar discussion about Kennedy, but more because of his lack of resources than concern about his health….
Much of the campaign is conducted largely through social media. Kennedy told the Globe he would hold his own rallies to demonstrate enthusiasm for his campaign, but they are expensive, especially since he isn’t provided Secret Service protection and must pay for his own security….
The morning after the Freeport event, Kennedy climbed aboard a wooden fishing trawler called the Susan and Jessica for over three hours at sea, leaving from Portland and going into Casco Bay. The boat was captained by a 20-something Kennedy supporter who is a commercial fisherman.
Kennedy said this is part of his campaign’s focus on “immersion,” where he listens to everyday Americans.
But at one point, he was just fishing.
He caught nothing.
Pindell notes that, “most polls suggest he hasn’t moved much since the debate,” but that is actually being too kind to RFK Jr. A glance at the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator reveals that he’s lost ground since the June 27th debate. That could be due to a number of reasons: credible allegations of sexual assault, his bold decision “not to take sides” on the September 11th attacks, or the whole dead brain worm thing. The point is, he’s losing.
RFK Jr. was never really a viable third-party candidates, but there should be a hell of a lot more stories highlighting his failure to take off in the wake of Biden’s debate disaster.
This leads me to the last and most curious non-story of the past two weeks: the complete lack of any in-depth diehard Biden voter profiles. Remember the “Trump voter in a diner” story genre? It was so prevalent by 2017 that the Washington Post’s Alexandra Petri could write a satirical column about it.
It is worth remembering that the origin of those stories was to explore why a presidential candidate who said and did a lot of self-sabotaging things could maintain a robust core of support. The diner genre was a sincere effort by reporters to suss out why Trump still commanded support after each of his screw-ups. Eventually the coverage was so massive that it bordered on parody, but the motivation behind it was understandable.
When Biden won in 2020 there was a running joke among some wags about when, if ever, the MSM would pivot to similar “Biden voter” stories. In actuality, however, the motivation for these profiles — explaining why a politician was receiving more robust support than political commentators — did not arise. Biden’s approval rating started to sink six months in for perfectly understandable reasons. Indeed, if anything the media reported on the opposite phenomenon: why Biden wasn’t more popular despite a good-to-great economy!
Two weeks after his disastrous debate performance, however, the time has come for the media to acknowledge and report on a dog that is not barking. Biden has not done great in the post-debate polling, and some forecasting models have shifted towards Trump in recent weeks. But other forecasting models have it as a pure coin flip, and the truth is that most polling has barely budged in the past two weeks. Indeed, the latest NPR/PBS News./Marist poll shows a modest, statistically insignificant shift towards Biden! NPR’s Domenico Montanaro notes:
Since the debate, on average, polls have shown Biden slipping a couple of points, but pollsters generally say it takes a couple of weeks for public opinion to settle after a major political event — and the changes have been within the margin of error.
Plus, while some Democratic leaders have called for Biden to step aside — and an even larger number are very concerned about his chances — there has also been significant pushback from many rank-and-file voters on the left, who see unbalanced media scrutiny since the debate on Biden’s flaws as compared to Trump’s.
There has been a geyser of media coverage of Democratic Party donors, officials, representatives, and staffers gnashing their teeth about Biden. That coverage is predictable. Given that Biden is now outperforming expectations, however, where is the reporting on the “rank-and-file voters on the left” who are sticking with Biden?! Where are their voices in the coverage?
Get on it, mainstream media! To paraphrase Glengarry Glen Ross, there are citizens sitting out there begging to give Biden their vote. Why are they sticking with him despite Biden’s political screw-ups? Report this out!
To be fair, in both op-eds and straight news coverage, the media is starting to cover the disastrous, super-inflationary policies that Trump promises to implement if elected to a second term. The media should definitely be paying more attention to that issue!
If you actually are an RFK Jr. supporter, please seek help immediately. Consult your therapist for alternative treatments and talismans!
In case anyone in the MSM wants to take you up on your suggestion -- to ask why voters are sticking with President Biden, I'll volunteer my reasoning:
While only two or three questions at the post NATO Summit news conference were related to the event just concluded, President Biden's answers to those questions demonstrated the complexity and historic implications of the work he's immersed in. The policies he and his administration are trying to implement re Ukraine and Israel require constant attention and sustained effort. The results will resonate for decades.
President Biden's knowledge, experience and leadership are irreplaceable. For him to step aside at this moment would be potentially catastrophic to the international order. This just isn't a good time for him to quit. Fortunately for the world, he made one thing abundantly clear yesterday: he won't withdraw unless shown that he can't win.
"And guess what." To quote the President, "No one’s saying that. No poll says that.”
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Yay. Smart stuff here! Can you publish this in the NYT or the WaPo?