Three Ways of Looking at the Political Acumen of Davos Men

American CEOs in Davos are expressing equanimity towards a second Trump term. Let's figure out why!

Photo by Evangeline Shaw on Unsplash

If it is a week when I get emails from McKinsey unironically asking the question, “Can Davos help close the empowerment gap?” that can mean only one thing: it’s World Economic Forum time again! Every January, statesman, plutocrats, and thought leaders converge on Davos, Switzerland to do some serious power-schmoozing. At the same time, right-wing conspiracy theorists go to town on how Davos is the ultimate cabal running the uniparty or some such nonsense.

The important thing is that the first big event of this year’s Ideas Industry conference-a-thon is under way in a year when there will be a lot of pivotal elections. And CNBC’s Alex Sherman and MacKenzie Sigalos have quite the story about how American CEOs who are there are talking about the prospect of Donald Trump potentially winning a second term. Let’s start with this paragraph, because it’s unintentionally delicious:

Several business executives have noted a theme in their private discussions during the summit: U.S. industry leaders seem overwhelmingly nonplussed with a second Trump term, while foreign chief executives are terrified — particularly of restrictions on immigration and potential global conflicts.

The meaning of that entire paragraph depends crucially on whether Sherman and Sigalos are using the word “nonplussed” as it has been traditionally defined (“unsure about what to say, think, or do”) or whether they are using it as what Americans think it means (“not bothered, surprised, or impressed by something”).¹ I am sure they intend it to mean the latter, so in the interest of clarity let’s say “unruffled.”

Why are U.S. industry leaders so unruffled about Trump? Sherman and Sigalos explain with some truly extraordinary paragraphs:

One prominent U.S. business executive, who asked not to be named because his discussions with foreign leaders were private, said some of the fear may be due to a lack of understanding of the checks and balances built into the U.S. government.

“I’m not sure Europeans understand how weak executive orders are,” that person said. “We have a justice system. Congress will probably be divided. It’s right to be cautious, but it won’t be the end of the world.”

Another U.S. bank CEO privately expressed annoyance with media exaggeration of the threat of a Trump presidency, stressing he’s “all bark and no bite.” The bank chief also dismissed Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election as bloviation.

“He’s going to win the presidency,” the CEO predicted. “Many of his policies were right.”

The hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World can think of many, many ways to rebut the corporate talking points listed above. I’ve already written a lot on those topics, however, and Trump keeps telling on himself anyway. Those points don’t need to belaboring.²

What is more interesting is to ask why U.S. corporate officers are sounding like this in Davos. Let me suggest three reasons that are by no means not mutually exclusive: