I have been mulling over the sources of power in world politics for *checks notes* pretty much my entire academic career. One of the obvious ways that the nature of power can shift is through technological change. As cyberspace has become a new arena of governance, power, and conflict in this century, there have been debates about “technopolarity” and “weaponized interdependence” and even the question of whether it represents the end of power.
All of this is a windup to saying that I have a new review essay out in Foreign Policy of two recent, must-read books that have some things to say about this topic: Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman’s Underground Empire and Anu Bradford’s Digital Empires. Here’s an excerpt:
Underground Empire suggests that some forms of structural power are extremely difficult to dislodge. As during the late 1980s—when many international relations scholars believed the United States was in terminal decline, only for the country to be the last superpower standing a decade later—commentators may be underestimating current U.S. power in the digital world.
For Bradford, however, what matters is the combination of market power, state capacity, and attractiveness of a government’s regulatory preferences. This formula enables her to predict that, going forward, the EU will be the most important democratic actor in global digital governance. The EU’s lack of big tech firms is a plus in Bradford’s model because it reduces the EU’s incentive to cater to domestic interest groups….
The definitions of digital power proffered in Underground Empire and Digital Empires are not mutually exclusive. It can be simultaneously true that the United States retains considerable structural power and the EU exercises its market power adroitly—and all the while China tries to amass both forms of power. Still, if there are arenas of contestation where U.S., European, and Chinese officials disagree, whose form of power might prevail?
You’ll have to read the whole thing to find out the answer I give to the proffered question above. For the purposes of this newsletter, however, I will just close with three quick notes.
First, these are both fantastic books. The highest praise that an academic can bestow on a book is to say that “it belongs in the syllabus,” and that applies to both of these books. I’ve written previously about Farrell and Newman’s book in this space. As for Bradford’s Digital Empires, it will be immensely helpful to me when I teach global political economy at Fletcher next year. It will be useful for scholars who know something about cyberspace as well as those who have been leery of including such topics in their more traditional international relations courses.
Second, it was only in reading these two books that I appreciated how my work has straddled the dialogue that these two books are having. Bradford’s argument rests in part on how states can exercise their market power as rule-makers rather than rule-takers, and that is certainly the primary point I was trying to make in All Politics Is Global. And given my research in economic coercion I am obviously sympathetic to Farrell and Newman’s causal logic.
Finally, after being stuck in my power project for a spell, I am grateful to have read these books. I am find myself doing some of my best scholarly thinking in reaction to seeing how others are thinking about the topic. Maybe it was always thus, but it seems increasingly true in recent years. With the spring semester almost over, I am looking forward to noodling around with these ideas for the next several months.
I encourage you to check out my book, Tyrants on Twitter: Protecting Democracies from Information Warfare. It is quite relevant to the topics you are exploring here.
David Sloss
Daniel,
Your commentary here reminded me of an article I read last summer, by Wesley Clark, here: https://washingtonmonthly.com/2023/08/27/info-wars/ - Looks like his review was a week or so ahead of yours last year to print.
And when I retrieved it, it turned out to basically be a review of Underground Empire. In Clark, or his ghostwriter's, review, he took the advantage of digital control points *very* seriously.
It was disturbing, but reassuring at the same time, since I am an American.
I had not heard of the other book, but I find the exertions of the EU regulators to not let their digital sphere get played as easily by corporate big tech as the American government admirable and reassuring as well, and not disturbing at all. Australia tried to do some similar things I think but turned out to be too small or weak a market, or lacked the tenacity to persist.
Speaking of your "research in economic coercion", have you updated your 1999 "The Sanctions Paradox" in any later editions? How do you think it has aged? I completely appreciate the argument you made there and saw it summarized in shorter article forms.
However, one thing that struck me during the Trump Administration pull out from American JCPOA participation and resumption of Iranian sanctions is that US allied powers most certainly, but even scores of firms and enterprises based in unfriendly to the USA countries like China and Russia have been slow to actualize ways to work around the US dominated financial and payments system. West European countries and business sectors, and plenty of major Chinese and Russian firms with western exposure found themselves severing business with US-sanctioned Iranian entities, *for fear of incurring second-party penalties*, even when *they substantively disagreed with the US pulling away from the agreement*, and even when *objectively judged by the terms of the agreement, the USA was in the wrong and far more a demonstrable deal-breaker than Iran*.
So, while US sanctioning behavior will naturally increase *motives and incentives* for other actors, especially who have frequent disagreements with America, to find non-US alternatives, the record seems to show that effort and cost is too much, the task is too difficult to get very far in that endeavor to date, and the convenience and practicality of US dominated exchange mechanisms is worth tolerating an enormous amount of BS and capriciousness from the US.