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I’d like to believe that the US’s attitude has hardened enough towards Russia that they wouldn’t be interested in a major rapprochement with Moscow if it was still in Crimea. Perhaps ‘real politic’ may make them feel it worth peeling Russia away from China. It may well be that after a while Ukraine takes Crimea anyway.

The biggest barrier to such a rapprochement would be whether Moscow would want to alienate a major export market but China does not behave in ways that generate affection and good will with other countries. I guess I’ll have to make sure I live a good long life to see how things work out.

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It occurs to me that this topic is worth monitoring closely for some time. My feeling is that China is a rather ego-centric ally who will mainly look upon Russia's situtation as a chance to by a lot of oil and gas at a steep discount. I've read some speculation that in the very long term the experience of being a long term client state to China might move a Post Putin Russia to a rapprochement with Europe and the West.

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Yes, as the Ukraine War kickstarted Cold War II (with China the main Western adversary) just like the Korean War on the other side of Eurasia kickstarted Cold War I (with the USSR the main Western adversary), we may well see a mirror occurrence of “Nixon goes to China”. Some Dem President goes to Moscow in the 2040’s?

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All things are possible Richard, though for a futuristic Nixon to go to Moscow the Russians will have to have been thrown out of Crimea first. I hold a shy hope the last thing will happen

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Why? I can certainly see Russia keeping Crimea and the US still pulling Russia over.

The ROC in Taiwan still claimed/claims all of mainland China (in theory) but that didn’t stop US-PRC rapprochement.

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