Interesting re - point 4: the Bank of Finland’s institute for developing economies put out a report recently arguing that labour force issues are beginning to bite the Russian economy, inflation is skyrocketing and the growth spike is only temporary - points that the Bank of Russia itself agrees with. https://www.bofit.fi/en/forecasting/latest-forecast-for-russia/
As with most things in Life, the Devil is in the details. Most people, I suspect, forget that the sanctions imposed on Russia were purposefully and willfully designed to be hard on Russia but easy on Europe; really, the rest of the world. The West's financial sanctions have been outplayed and outfoxed by a superior central banker, Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina, who runs intellectual rings around Powell and the rest of them. Add the fact that certain countries - India, China, Iran, etc - have been more than willing to create a shadow economy to aid Russia circumvent sanctions. Suddenly, for example, you had maritime insurance for Russia, when we thought we slam-dunked Russia on that item. China was only to happy to import Russia's oil and other raw commodities, even though the oil takes a ridiculously circuitous route - and of course, it was a buyers' market and China imposed a freakishly low price on Russia's oil exports. And then there is...
I could go on with many exceptions. A more important exception: Europe was lucky that the past two winters were not cold - but has Europe adjusted their rate of drawdowns in light of their lucky savings? I think not.
I guess what I struggle to say is the world is not black & white, not binary; the West has used a lot of lipstick but it still cannot gussy up its pig: its sanctions have been all bark and no bite. What's to measure?
In 2022, I worked for a multinational with a Russian subsidiary that was divested due to sanctions. This was a fiddly exercise but the possibility that we might not complete it in time scared the bejesus out of the EU country MDs. I felt a little sorry for my Russian (former) colleagues. They seemed really miserable. But maybe that was more about being Russian than being at war.
When starting the war, Putin expected a quick and easy victory, at least in the sense of occupying Kyiv. Kharkiv and Odesa, and most of Ukriane. Conversely, once it became obvious that this wasn't going to happen, the assumption in the West was that, as long as significant losses were imposed quickly, Putin would be looking for an off-ramp.
If the underlying premise were true, the sanctions might have tipped the balance. But as it;s turned out, Putin has been willing to incur the destruction of most of his standing armed forces and casualties pushing towards a million, with no real prospect of gaining much beyond the (2021) status quo ante. In these circumstances sanctions were never going to matter much.
We're being lied to. This war can't be won. Russia seized the Donbas, a region they always influenced, and they're not giving it back. Ever. They view this war as defending fellow Russians, and their nation's security, prestige, and even character is at stake. It doesn't get bigger than that.
Interesting re - point 4: the Bank of Finland’s institute for developing economies put out a report recently arguing that labour force issues are beginning to bite the Russian economy, inflation is skyrocketing and the growth spike is only temporary - points that the Bank of Russia itself agrees with. https://www.bofit.fi/en/forecasting/latest-forecast-for-russia/
As with most things in Life, the Devil is in the details. Most people, I suspect, forget that the sanctions imposed on Russia were purposefully and willfully designed to be hard on Russia but easy on Europe; really, the rest of the world. The West's financial sanctions have been outplayed and outfoxed by a superior central banker, Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina, who runs intellectual rings around Powell and the rest of them. Add the fact that certain countries - India, China, Iran, etc - have been more than willing to create a shadow economy to aid Russia circumvent sanctions. Suddenly, for example, you had maritime insurance for Russia, when we thought we slam-dunked Russia on that item. China was only to happy to import Russia's oil and other raw commodities, even though the oil takes a ridiculously circuitous route - and of course, it was a buyers' market and China imposed a freakishly low price on Russia's oil exports. And then there is...
I could go on with many exceptions. A more important exception: Europe was lucky that the past two winters were not cold - but has Europe adjusted their rate of drawdowns in light of their lucky savings? I think not.
I guess what I struggle to say is the world is not black & white, not binary; the West has used a lot of lipstick but it still cannot gussy up its pig: its sanctions have been all bark and no bite. What's to measure?
In 2022, I worked for a multinational with a Russian subsidiary that was divested due to sanctions. This was a fiddly exercise but the possibility that we might not complete it in time scared the bejesus out of the EU country MDs. I felt a little sorry for my Russian (former) colleagues. They seemed really miserable. But maybe that was more about being Russian than being at war.
Moments and conferences like these make me miss Fletcher even more!
When starting the war, Putin expected a quick and easy victory, at least in the sense of occupying Kyiv. Kharkiv and Odesa, and most of Ukriane. Conversely, once it became obvious that this wasn't going to happen, the assumption in the West was that, as long as significant losses were imposed quickly, Putin would be looking for an off-ramp.
If the underlying premise were true, the sanctions might have tipped the balance. But as it;s turned out, Putin has been willing to incur the destruction of most of his standing armed forces and casualties pushing towards a million, with no real prospect of gaining much beyond the (2021) status quo ante. In these circumstances sanctions were never going to matter much.
We're being lied to. This war can't be won. Russia seized the Donbas, a region they always influenced, and they're not giving it back. Ever. They view this war as defending fellow Russians, and their nation's security, prestige, and even character is at stake. It doesn't get bigger than that.