I remember the Latin America prediction which was out of my usual purview and was impressed when it came to pass. I was optimistic on the shutdown strategy and ending and hope they can keep healthcare top of mind thru the mid-terms. Looking forward to the 2026 prediction ….. if it’s not too dark.
Excellent mea culpa -- honest and instructive. (The road to hell is paved with Lucy van Pelt self-assessments ... and with this administration's insecure self-regard.) Best wishes for health & joy in the New Year!
Retrospection can be a rewarding - and humbling - experience. All in all, I agree that you did pretty well this past year - unlike U.S. democracy and our poor and marginalized populations, which suffered relentlessly at the hands of the chaotic, corrupt, and cruel Trump administration. If political scientists and historians are still allowed to practice their crafts after this is all over, I'd require anyone who publishes anything about this administration in any medium to subtitle their work "Worse Than We Expected."
Still, I'm heartened by the continuing resistance from the pro-democracy forces in this country and the very high domestic net-disapproval numbers the administration has earned. I hope the midterm elections (if we're allowed to have them) reflect this, but I worry that the G will find some way to placate the majority of voters (with $1 gas?) and continue to control all three constitutional branches.
As to the shutdown, I'm in the camp that wishes the Ds could have held out forever, but, realistically, I don't see how that could have happened without worsening the risk to folks who depend on SNAP. Their lives are already too hard without having to spend entire days in breadlines.
My biggest predictive failure was concerning SCOTUS, which I've followed throughout my career as a lawyer and academic. I knew that Thomas and Alito are and almost always will be terrible, but I expected Balls-and-Strikes Roberts and Barrett to be more to resistant executive-branch hegemony than they've been. I guess the siren-song of the unitary executive was more powerfully seductive than I expected.
Also, I did not see the Epstein Files taking us down the path we've traveled to date. The flip-flopping of D and R positions on their disclosure has been head-spinning. And the extent to which the Files have underscored the mendacity and corruption of the Trump administration has been surprising.
My biggest predictive success? I expected Russell Vought and Stephen Miller to be terrible and they've lived down to my expectations.
Speaking of balls and strikes, as to your Red Sox, think of us White Sox fans - we have two WS appearances since 1919 (1-1 in result) and our team is under the control of an ownership group that seems not to care about us in the least.
Best wishes for 2026 to you and your loved ones, DD.
He probably tried but came across two competing problems: 1) Trump's insatiable greed and Steven Miller's hatred of Europe, not to mention the influence of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are in league with China.
It always comes down to the dollars. And the fact that Hegseth is worthless.
I think the main reason Dems escaped a penalty from their capitulation is that people already hated them — particularly, the establishment cavers — about as much as possible.
The Dems get the hate because they’re not fighting Trump hard enough. Which is why Trump’s numbers still cratered over the same period.
Yeah they actually did not have much to lose reputation wise... and at least they focused on ACA subsidies which at least a few Republicans are demanding...
Hello Daniel, the devil is in the details but you got the big picture right! But I think the strike on Iran was a one off and it set the Iranians back with their nuclear program and seemingly allowed Israel to continue to dominate the area in terms of air power. So I guess your prediction was half right, we used military force, but to a minimal extent. We did not get into a quagmire. The other that you got right is our continuing military adventurism in Venezuela which has been very controversial to say the least. Hopefully it will end with Maduro being replaced with Nobel prize winner Maria Machado and fair elections and a return to normalcy for the poor Venezuelans. Terrence Goggins of the substack West Point History professor has a pretty favorable view of Machado and replacing Maduro, I would love to hear your take on this situation!
It’s an indication of good character when one can admit and own their mistakes. You got more right than wrong. Write on! Thanks!
I remember the Latin America prediction which was out of my usual purview and was impressed when it came to pass. I was optimistic on the shutdown strategy and ending and hope they can keep healthcare top of mind thru the mid-terms. Looking forward to the 2026 prediction ….. if it’s not too dark.
Excellent mea culpa -- honest and instructive. (The road to hell is paved with Lucy van Pelt self-assessments ... and with this administration's insecure self-regard.) Best wishes for health & joy in the New Year!
Retrospection can be a rewarding - and humbling - experience. All in all, I agree that you did pretty well this past year - unlike U.S. democracy and our poor and marginalized populations, which suffered relentlessly at the hands of the chaotic, corrupt, and cruel Trump administration. If political scientists and historians are still allowed to practice their crafts after this is all over, I'd require anyone who publishes anything about this administration in any medium to subtitle their work "Worse Than We Expected."
Still, I'm heartened by the continuing resistance from the pro-democracy forces in this country and the very high domestic net-disapproval numbers the administration has earned. I hope the midterm elections (if we're allowed to have them) reflect this, but I worry that the G will find some way to placate the majority of voters (with $1 gas?) and continue to control all three constitutional branches.
As to the shutdown, I'm in the camp that wishes the Ds could have held out forever, but, realistically, I don't see how that could have happened without worsening the risk to folks who depend on SNAP. Their lives are already too hard without having to spend entire days in breadlines.
My biggest predictive failure was concerning SCOTUS, which I've followed throughout my career as a lawyer and academic. I knew that Thomas and Alito are and almost always will be terrible, but I expected Balls-and-Strikes Roberts and Barrett to be more to resistant executive-branch hegemony than they've been. I guess the siren-song of the unitary executive was more powerfully seductive than I expected.
Also, I did not see the Epstein Files taking us down the path we've traveled to date. The flip-flopping of D and R positions on their disclosure has been head-spinning. And the extent to which the Files have underscored the mendacity and corruption of the Trump administration has been surprising.
My biggest predictive success? I expected Russell Vought and Stephen Miller to be terrible and they've lived down to my expectations.
Speaking of balls and strikes, as to your Red Sox, think of us White Sox fans - we have two WS appearances since 1919 (1-1 in result) and our team is under the control of an ownership group that seems not to care about us in the least.
Best wishes for 2026 to you and your loved ones, DD.
Regarding Colby,
He probably tried but came across two competing problems: 1) Trump's insatiable greed and Steven Miller's hatred of Europe, not to mention the influence of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are in league with China.
It always comes down to the dollars. And the fact that Hegseth is worthless.
I think the main reason Dems escaped a penalty from their capitulation is that people already hated them — particularly, the establishment cavers — about as much as possible.
The Dems get the hate because they’re not fighting Trump hard enough. Which is why Trump’s numbers still cratered over the same period.
Yeah they actually did not have much to lose reputation wise... and at least they focused on ACA subsidies which at least a few Republicans are demanding...
There better be a companion piece on Space the Nation for your many Sci-Fi wrong opinions in 2025.
Hello Daniel, the devil is in the details but you got the big picture right! But I think the strike on Iran was a one off and it set the Iranians back with their nuclear program and seemingly allowed Israel to continue to dominate the area in terms of air power. So I guess your prediction was half right, we used military force, but to a minimal extent. We did not get into a quagmire. The other that you got right is our continuing military adventurism in Venezuela which has been very controversial to say the least. Hopefully it will end with Maduro being replaced with Nobel prize winner Maria Machado and fair elections and a return to normalcy for the poor Venezuelans. Terrence Goggins of the substack West Point History professor has a pretty favorable view of Machado and replacing Maduro, I would love to hear your take on this situation!