23 Comments

Seems to me this may be more a mutiny than a coup or a civil war. Depends I suppose on whether the uprising garners significant support from regular forces

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Perhaps one of the "steps" that "could be taken to ensure a better outcome" for America is not having midwits who were stupid enough to support the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq writing that "a successful invasion not only eliminates the Iraqi threat, but over the long run it reduces the Arab resentment that feeds Al-Qaeda" "gaming out the state of the country a generation from now"? Just a thought

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Great article, and amazing detail.

I did read this from Prof. Singh - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1672576746485346309.html which suggests that a bloodless coup is more common than not.

As for post-coup the real question is not whether the Chef seizes power, but whether Russia retains territorial integrity.

In 1917, and then in 1921, Russia did not retain territorial integrity - rather it required a very bloody set of wars with regional bosses.

And even if the coup fails, does it retain territorial integrity?

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First, Progozhin is a quite the leader of men and can certainly change the tide of a military campaign, for better or worse.

Second, should Putin fall, there will be a power vacuum. The first time after the fall of the Soviet Union, there was no Marshall Plan for them, only an effort to privatize state industries, creating economic collapse and a harsh winter, facilitating Purim’s rise. Admittedly in the 1990’s, the US was conflicted with balancing the Federal budget. Could it be different the second time around, with a hope of finding an ally in the East? Currently the interest is in using Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine.

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For a Machiavellian figure, Putin doesn't seem to have actually read Machiavelli.

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Prigozhin just drew the role of Kornilov in his Russian Revolution Re-enactment Society's annual performance of the July Offensive.

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A many mutinies don’t lead to civil wars, as on the western front

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Wow you really are an expert and it is a real shame that your expertise isn't valued by more people lmao

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Stakes are rising by the minute. Wagner is smaller but more disciplined and motivated than the regular army. So might the latter collapse instead? Where does the Air Force stand?

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What's amazing is that so far there's no opposition. A convoy on a superhighway is an easy easy target, but no air assaults, no road blocks, no ambushes, nothing at all. Anyone who's ever been in a military convoy knows how hard it is to get one organized, gassed up, and on the road. Evidently no street demonstrations of any kind anywhere. Video Rostov shows life going on with some curious bystanders.

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What is Progozhin‘s relationship with Xi/China, if any?

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Wagner is in a really dangerous position right now. YP could be toast very quickly in any number of ways that we have seen. Really depends, I think, on the support he may get from the regulars, or lack thereof. Stay tuned.

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The Gorilla in the room is Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov...what he does in the next 12 hours will be quite interesting since a mass of his troops have been in the Belogrod region offering border security...

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Fascinating developments. Thanks for your insightful summary and perspective.

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