You might have noticed that in recent years/months/weeks U.S. policymakers have grown more and more hostile towards China. It is one of the few sources of bipartisan consensus on American foreign policy. And there are a lot of valid reasons to justify this hawkish turn: persistent intellectual property theft, a lack of transparency on COVID-19, crackdowns in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, and the increased bellicosity toward its neighbors. Oh, and also the more general concern that China is now a peer competitor of the United States.
I have long suspected that there are intense backchannel discussions between the US government and the Chinese one trying to keep China from supplying Russia the weapons it desperately needs. Biden, or Blinken, calling out China would probably be counterproductive in that delicate discussion. I expect the clarifying rallying speech will come only if, hopefully not when, China does start sending weapons. According to leaks this week, the US government is very concerned that China is considering doing just that right now.
In the meantime, Chinese wolf warrior diplomats are doing more to turn the world against China than anything the US could say right now. As Napoleon said, never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake. If we do call out China in a high profile speech, that would give Chinese diplomats more credibility in their victim-of-Western-imperialism stance, the only rhetorical point besides money that still works for them as they try to win over the Global South.
The other consideration is that to shift focus to China right now would take attention away from focusing the world's attention on Russian imperialism in Ukraine.
I think making a big China speech that articulates a broad anti-China American agenda would be a significant provocation to the CCP, and as such Biden may be wise not to rush it when questions such as the presence and degree of Chinese military aid to Russia's war in Ukraine remain to be settled. The world seems to be dividing into two hostile camps on its own, but I'm not sure a rhetorical move to hasten that helps our situation that much.
"Oh, and also the more general concern that China is now a peer competitor of the United States."
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LOL, No.
China is near-future doomed as a significant political entity due to demographics and its tremendous reliance on foreign inputs to keep its people alive. Those shortages in electronic components you're seeing all over the place aren't going to bounce and it's going to spread to everything else China manufactures. The damage that the US has enabled the CCP to cause to American universities, scientific institutions, and tech IP is mostly in the rear-view mirror.
Anyone who hasn't grappled with the thesis in Peter Zeihan's latest book can't comment intelligently on the geopolitics of China or its prospects for anything:
I'm considerably older than you, so have more memories of "existential threats". I don't see it. I don't see a Chinese ideology comparable to the ideology nominally embraced by the Soviet Union; the ideology which convinced Whitaker Chambers he was on the losing side. There seems to be limitations on the extent of the power of any state.
Maybe if Biden runs and wins he'll use his memories of the Cold War to quiet the Sinophobes. Until then he seems to be trotting after the crowd.
I have long suspected that there are intense backchannel discussions between the US government and the Chinese one trying to keep China from supplying Russia the weapons it desperately needs. Biden, or Blinken, calling out China would probably be counterproductive in that delicate discussion. I expect the clarifying rallying speech will come only if, hopefully not when, China does start sending weapons. According to leaks this week, the US government is very concerned that China is considering doing just that right now.
In the meantime, Chinese wolf warrior diplomats are doing more to turn the world against China than anything the US could say right now. As Napoleon said, never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake. If we do call out China in a high profile speech, that would give Chinese diplomats more credibility in their victim-of-Western-imperialism stance, the only rhetorical point besides money that still works for them as they try to win over the Global South.
The other consideration is that to shift focus to China right now would take attention away from focusing the world's attention on Russian imperialism in Ukraine.
I think making a big China speech that articulates a broad anti-China American agenda would be a significant provocation to the CCP, and as such Biden may be wise not to rush it when questions such as the presence and degree of Chinese military aid to Russia's war in Ukraine remain to be settled. The world seems to be dividing into two hostile camps on its own, but I'm not sure a rhetorical move to hasten that helps our situation that much.
"Oh, and also the more general concern that China is now a peer competitor of the United States."
-----
LOL, No.
China is near-future doomed as a significant political entity due to demographics and its tremendous reliance on foreign inputs to keep its people alive. Those shortages in electronic components you're seeing all over the place aren't going to bounce and it's going to spread to everything else China manufactures. The damage that the US has enabled the CCP to cause to American universities, scientific institutions, and tech IP is mostly in the rear-view mirror.
Anyone who hasn't grappled with the thesis in Peter Zeihan's latest book can't comment intelligently on the geopolitics of China or its prospects for anything:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ED_yPDdqG5Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNLBGbWBOoE
I'm considerably older than you, so have more memories of "existential threats". I don't see it. I don't see a Chinese ideology comparable to the ideology nominally embraced by the Soviet Union; the ideology which convinced Whitaker Chambers he was on the losing side. There seems to be limitations on the extent of the power of any state.
Maybe if Biden runs and wins he'll use his memories of the Cold War to quiet the Sinophobes. Until then he seems to be trotting after the crowd.
Thanks for the clear-minded article! America needs to defend itself that's the biggest reason