Sure, Trump could win, but everyone seems to have 2020 amnesia.
Trump is an elderly obese man. He has over a year of stress to go with legal entanglements that will deplete him financially and don't forget the debt he has hanging over him. He may well do us all a great favor by dropping dead.
I see the wisdom in saying that politics is an uncertain business and there’s a long time before the key votes in the nomination process are cast. Nevertheless my guess is very attractive odds are available for anyone prepared to bet on anyone other than Trump winning the nomination. His bedrock level of support seems big enough to win the nomination and given that they’ve stuck with him despite all the bad publicity so far, it’s hard to see anything turning them away now. Furthermore, my observation is that Democrats are rather more concerned about the general electability of a candidate than Republicans.
💙VOTE THE BLUE TSUNAMI💙 WE.CAN.DO.THIS.
Say Trump isn't the nominee, how damaging would the backlash from die-hard Trumpists be for the GOP in the general? In this era of razor thin election wins, If any part of Trump's base stays home that's an electoral death sentence. Unless Trump goes away in a way that leaves them blameless, it's hard to see anyone else becoming president even if they become the nominee.
There's a really good clip up of Chris Christie attacking Donald Trump in his CNN town hall. Christie notes in the clip that he made mistakes in 2016 that he does not intend to make this time around. I do think the GOP learns from 2016 rather than repeating 2016. I don't think Trump will be the nominee. I wouldn't have said that yesterday! Something about watching the Christie clip and reading this piece by Dan ... and also thinking about all the other ways the world has changed since 2016 ... has changed my thinking. .
Anyway, if you're interested, here's the clip. It's about 11 minutes long but you can watch it on 2x speed in less than 6. Well worth it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m--WPQ3HK24