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After years of Trump & the Republicans espousing violence against their political foes, it's hardly a surprise that it should finally come for them too. You can only outswim the shark so long.

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It’s more likely that rhetoric like that and the Trump is a dictator rhetoric is more culpable. I say that as a non American.

The US is a strange place. Other countries have vast differences between parties, there’s a fig leaf between the democrats and the republicans but utter hatred.

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"there’s a fig leaf between the democrats and the republicans but utter hatred"

There's nothing in that sentence which bears any relationship to reality in the United States.

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That’s an argument that needs to be fleshed out a bit. However other countries have socialists and centrists, the far right, nationalists and greens contending for power and the rhetoric is genteel in comparison.

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Democrats and Republicans differ on:

abortion, support of unions, minimum wage, medicare, social security, immigration policy including asylum, support for Ukraine (although the GOP is split), support for NATO (although the GOP is split), religious observance in public schools, religion in government, campaign finance reform, presidential immunity, climate change, voting rights for those who have completed their prison sentence after commission of a felony, etc.

And the animosity isn't a situation where both sides are equally culpable. Republicans have been building up an animosity towards Democrats/liberals for decades, stoked by Rush Limbaugh, Newt Gingrich and others. About 15-20 years ago, a coworker told me that she thought all Democrats should be shot. Even if you read these comments, I think you'll find that the rhetoric by conservatives is more over the top than rhetoric by those on the left.

Democrats/liberals are legitimately concerned about Trump. He's not a normal candidate. He is a serial liar. He incited a violent uprising by a mob which surged into the nation's capital. It's just kind of insane to both-sides this.

Then again, look at the rhetoric in England on behalf of the Tories. I think it's kind of similar to the GOP and their allies in the news media (Sinclair Media, right wing radio, WSJ, and Rupert Murdoch's other news outlets).

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And I think that the right wing news media in both countries, England and the U.S., are responsible for the animosity. Fox News stokes fear and anger in their viewers. Fear and anger are like drugs, and so those people keep tuning back in for more of the same.

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Outfoxed is a good documentary about how Fox News stokes fear and anger.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoTJoLZbd1w

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> abortion, support of unions, minimum wage, medicare, social security, immigration policy including asylum, support for Ukraine (although the GOP is split), support for NATO (although the GOP is split), religious observance in public schools, religion in government, campaign finance reform, presidential immunity, climate change, voting rights for those who have completed their prison sentence after commission of a felony, etc.

The republicans are generally the party of war - although there is some disquiet amongst their voters re Ukraine, and the democrats have taken that role.

Culture war issues aside the US in reality runs the same foreign policy from administration to administration. And even with regards to the culture war and even economic differences like the minimum wage States can largely do their own thing. The US runs about the same from administration to administration.

Also Britain’s rhetoric is much cooler than the US, outside a few Internet hot heads nobody calls the Tories fascist or Labour communists - although the relatively centrist Labour are probably about where Bernie Sanders is.

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> Also Britain’s rhetoric is much cooler than the US

I saw the front pages of some British newspapers before the election which were trying to scare people about labour taking over. I can't find them now, but it seemed rather over the top to me.

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> The US runs about the same from administration to administration.

I agree with you that foreign policy is pretty similar between the two parties.

Regarding domestic policy, the filibuster in the Senate mostly prevents Congress from enacting major changes. So, most of the opportunity for substantial change between administrations occurs via executive orders. The power of executive orders is somewhat limited.

In order for major change to take place, the Democratic Party needs 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. For an example of what that might look like, look at California, where Democrats have a super-majority in the state legislature.

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This article is a bit old, but I don't think that detracts from the point.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/blame-abc-news-finds-17-cases-invoking-trump/story?id=58912889

> But a nationwide review conducted by ABC News has identified at least 54 criminal cases where Trump was invoked in direct connection with violent acts, threats of violence or allegations of assault.

...

> ABC News could not find a single criminal case filed in federal or state court where an act of violence or threat was made in the name of President Barack Obama or President George W. Bush.

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True. Sometimes you lose control of your own monster. I'm not sure yet this wasn't an inside job, but if it wasn't...losing control of your own rhetoric to one of your own followers no less is poetic.

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Probably better to avoid going all conspiracy theory at this juncture. Word is leaking that he was a bullied kid, so it's not unlikely that he was just a troubled individual that wanted to become famous and thought a good way to do that was by killing someone really famous.

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Every time someone called our fears a conspiracy theory, they turned out to be spot on. Hitler blew up his own headquarters and called it terrorism so people would feel sorry for him. Sorry, everything this man says or does is sus.

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Agreed and Putin bombed those apartments and staged his own assassination. But I just don’t think they’d pick this kid

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1) Trump isn’t going to agree to be shot at to ensure he’s going to win an election that he’s probably going to win anyway.

2) why would this kid be chosen to shoot the Trump’s ear. Isn’t that a much harder shot than hitting his big orange head?

3) why are Americans so conspiratorial about everything. A few inches to the left and with a dead Trump it would be the other side claiming conspiracy

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All he said was not to jump to conclusions… my god the amygdala’s are enflamed XD

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So, it’s not the bad guns, it’s the bad mentally Ill? Geez, so confusing

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He just said not to jump to conclusions… geez

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This is simply not true. Anyone "espousing violence" is committing a crime. "Trump & the Republicans" have never been charged with anything like this.

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Citing an almost deranged opinion piece by a lefty outlet using tea leaves and mind reading does not bolster your case. We have laws, and charging authorities. No charge, no case.

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If you're calling Axios of all places "a lefty outlet" you are telling on yourself way more than you think.

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The site you posted shows that they are slightly left of center.

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Guessing that anything that doesn't comport with your preconceived notions is a 'deranged opinion piece.' Axios is, by and large, a center-of-the-road news outlet, an assessment with which I'm sure you disagree. So feel free to retreat back into your little MAGA bubble & live happily.

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I'm nonpartisan, and my argument stands. What you said is simply not true. BTW you might want to formulate your own ideas, instead of regurgitating someone else's opinion.

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I too am nonpartisan, generally center-right, now an I, used to be an R before the party got captured by the crazies. Have disdain for both the far-left & the Trumpist right, but think the right is more dangerous. And BTW, I do have my own ideas, formulated through 74 years of life experiences. Get my news from multiple sources - center, lean left, & lean right, don't pay much heed to 'opinion' pieces. And yes, you were slightly correct about Axios, they are slightly 'lean left,' but not by much (https://www.allsides.com/news-source/axios).

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Do you remember the time Don Jr jested on Twitter that his Halloween costume was going to be underwear and a hammer? I can explain the joke if you like.

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You may not have noticed that there are Trump quotes in that "deranged opinion piece". Completely separate from whether you approve of Axios, you could verify whether or not you agree that those quotes by Trump promote violence.

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Being guilty of and complicit in is a lot diff than charging - let’s call a spade a spade .

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What's the difference between guilty and complicit? None. You're trying to parse and word-play your way to some ridiculous justification. Emphasis on ridiculous.

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Make me laugh - at war with the world. Case in point - Individual running for gov in NC states - there’s some people who do need ti be killed - to a group of parishioners. Now, this person i

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Is not arrested, indeed is not charged with any crime whatsoever . And, when months down the road , a youth - usually white male- proceeds to act on his wirds, bc at 20 he’s impressionable - the person running for gov - will never be charged . His hands are clean - these are difficult cases to try after all - when one isn’t actually holding the gun.

You would do well do read up on how/why people are being radicalized in this country - bc you e got some good blinders on. The violence is not equal on both sides - go look at the stats , then read up as to why it’s occurring . This ain’t rocket science .

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😂😂😂😂

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All solid thoughts. Of course, Republican lawmakers also own the refusal to modify or regulate or reauthorize laws regulating, banning, or restricting guns or gun ownership. They also own Republican Supreme Court justices dismantling gun laws and in 2008 “finding” for the first time ever, an individual right to bear arms, instead of the right to form armed state militias, in the Heller ruling. How originalist of them!

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Aha- back to the trope that it is the fault of those bad old guns.

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Ah, the old trope that it’s people that kill people, and that it has nothing to do with the ridiculous and excessive proliferation of guns in this country, pushed by the NRA with the aid of a large portion of the population who live as cowards, imagining the world as a scary, scary place where one must be constantly on guard. Tell me, are you obtuse by nature or just arguing in bad faith? As for whether you live in fear, that’s a question you owe yourself an answer to, not me.

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I prefer the term "murder weapons".

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Is self defense included in your broad definition ? Are subsidence hunters who hunt to feed their family murderers? Which weapons are included in your definition ,does it include sharp Knives? Do weapons of war qualify? Handguns vs. long guns? Automatic vs. semi automatic? Nice but meaningless turn of phrase unless specifically defined.

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You MAGAts are an old trope just like the fascists!

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A libertarian , not a MAGA - a voter w/o a home who chooses between very imperfect candidates.

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No you are MAGA. Any idiot that agrees with Cannon & SCOTUS is a fucking moron

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Got a chip on your shoulder, eh?

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Of course, democrats own their own bad faith insistence on pushing the exact same set of gun control policies in response to every tragedy irrespective of whether they could have conceivably prevented it, which has poisoned the dialogue on the issue for a generation.

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The same solutions are always still needed.

I’m thrilled Manchin and Sinema are leaving soon. They’re way too proud of refusing to drop the 60 votes filibuster rule, seemingly unaware of how they’ve been played for enabling the Republicans to easily block passing everything that democracy needs.

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Don’t think it has to do with pride as much as $$$. Manchin and Sinema want to get paid, and the filibuster is the perfect vehicle to get that done without necessarily having their fingerp

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Why "bad faith"? It worked in other countries. Why is it bad faith to try the same thing here?

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My political life began in 1963, so assassinations are baked into my view of America, politics and guns. Please, may this spur Biden to send an assault rifle ban to Congress immediately, as he vowed to do in the first hundred days of his second administration. Also, I do care that the shooter wasn’t a gay trans Muslim Hispanic illegal immigrant abortionist wearing an Antifa/AOC/Hamas T-shirt and carrying a copy of Rules for Radicals; the claims that Biden ordered this/instigated it and should pardon Trump for all his pending trials (hat tip to Sen. Mike Lee) are ridiculous enough without any of that.

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Your description of a feared shooter - hysterical!

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I'm not sure the motivation is immaterial. Political motivation vs. mental illness seems like a distinction worth knowing.

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The point is, irrespective of the 'mental health' mantra or deliberate murder or spree shooting, the guy (his father, actuallu) obtained a semi-autimatic assault weapon legally (as well as stockpiled bomb-making materials), was observed in public with it, and got off right shots before being stopped. The only thing relevant about motive would be related to whether or not he was part of a conspiracy, which would mean that police officials need to find the others. 'Mental health' doesn't change the absurd ease with people in the US obtain & own guns.

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Yup. One of several “nothing to see here” moments that rang very false for me.

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Remember when democrats tried to tie the (mentally jll) Gifford shooter to Palin because of some “targeting” imagery the latter used in 2010 campaign materials?

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

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Tried to? They did tie her to it. Those were her campaign ads targeting Gabby Giffords with a rifle scope crosshair. The imagery couldn't be more clear.

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Agree.

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I think it’s worth appreciating just how close of a call it was. Hundreds of thousands maybe millions of people are well trained enough in marksmanship to have found the target. Even so, this shooter came within an inch. Very, very close call. The iconic photo could very easily not exist, replaced by another iconic snuff film video watched by billions of people over the coming days.

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Can you imagine!

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The first thing the Democrats can do is, for the thousandth time, introduce meaningful assault weapons legislation, and then force the Republicans to own their repeated refusal to act.

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I can already hear Mitch glitchy mumbling, “Well, in my learned view, now is not the time to make knee-jerk reactions that injure law-abiding people’s constitutional right to bear arms… This was clearly a mental health issue, which cannot be addressed by reducing the people’s rights…”

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Nailed it!

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“Anyone claiming that this is it, the 2024 presidential election is over because “the assassination attempt will turbocharge the persecution narrative Trump has placed at the center of his campaign” should not be allowed to write any more U.S. coverage without first taking at least three semesters of undergraduate American politics courses. Remember when Trump was found guilty of 34 felonies? That was 45 days ago.”

Yeah. So the “conviction for 34 felonies” = prime fodder for “the persecution narrative Trump has placed at the centre of his campaign”. They are the same thing. And yet the listicle, above, seems to be citing this as an example of some general, unrelated noise that will drown out this yawnworthy nothingburger of an assassination attempt. Seems to me that the image of the bloodstained president raising his fist in defiant resolve is the *pitch-perfect resolution* to a persecution narrative that had already been turbo-charged by the (justified!) pursuit of Trump through the courts. Am I missing something here?

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Yup! Most of the authors points is just ego-driven coping. Biden was down by double digits with independents and getting worse by the day. Biden is losing in typically safe dem states. All swing states right now are currently in trumps favor by hefty margins.

Not to mention Trumps corruption was already baked into his candidacy from the start. Everyone (from the independents) knows trump is corrupt. But the Biden age debacle has blown up relatively recently.

Suggesting this assassination attempt doesn’t matter is laughable. Joe was already finished before. Now he’s 6 feet underground. Insane people are still trying to cope

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I believe they are approximately tied right now.

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So here’s the thing with polls. In 2020 Biden was up by 5 points on average of every poll. He then won the election by an even slimmer margin. The electoral college, gerrymandering, and voter suppression hurts dems and helps republicans.

Now we can find one or two pills that says Biden is only behind 2 or 3 points and say to ourselves “Oooo see it’s still a close race”. But on average, most polls say he’s down by 5-9 points. Take into account the above and it becomes obvious the reality is he’s going to lose.

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On the political bump from events like this, Reagan’s approval rating bumped up 8 points following the attempt on his life. It took several months for his popularity to return to its previous baseline.

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Of course, Reagan was well liked in general. Even people I know who hated his policies, but met him in person, really liked him. I don't know that Trump is quite in that category. There will definitely be a bump, but Trump's partisans have been unswerving regardless of everything else, and Biden's fans, of which I am one, would vote for Biden *even if he took a nap on 5th Avenue*.

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Agreed, Mary! If they have to prop Biden up “Weekend at Bernie’s” style and push him into the next 3 debates strapped to a dolly, I’m still voting for him, too…

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lol damn i hope it doesn't come to that and ironic as "Bernie" (the other Bernie)

has declared publicly and in print that while not the "ideal candidate" we should all stand behind Joe (pushing?). Of course there is still time to cast around for a more ideal candidate with a clear eyed view as to who is more electable and that should be supported as well. After Chicago is when everyone must unite.

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Fair points all. Trump’s ceiling is under 50% too. The effect of any ‘bump’ may show up most in effects on turnout. Trump’s base seems more motivated than ever to show up and vote, and are now being encouraged to vote early. Biden/Dem base seems demoralized by recent events and may not have their preferences affected, but may also simply not show up to vote.

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Boy, I am glad I just discovered you and your substack!!!

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Americans hate each other. Trump and the Republicans find more ways for Americans to hate each other. Elected Republican politicians use divisive rhetoric to up the stakes. Americans die from violence perpetrated by triggered Republican supporters. Will voting Democratic not Republican help these facts to go away? I hope so. But we will see.

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"Regarding the shooter’s identity and motivations: I. Don’t Care."

Why not? It's going to make an enormous difference going forward. FOX is absolutely gleeful right now. This is the happiest they've been since Trump decided to run for the first time. If it was a Republican shooter however...their joy may be short lived.

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It is a republican shooter. His shirt was also a

Gun sport shirt and it’s the gun everyone fears that they want to carry.

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How about "The right wing will do everything they can to blame this on Biden, the Media, The Left, Antifa, the ACLU, ..."

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In one of the funniest episodes of the great western series Gunsmoke, Festus (a sidekick of Marshal Matt) finds that some cousins are coming to shoot him--he tells Matt. Shoot you, Matt exclaims. Yes, but just the little hangy down thingy on my ear. In the end, Festus ear is unharmed thanks to a pair of fancy boots Festus gives the ear shooting cousin. Nonethess, the term the little hangy down thingy is repeated over and over again as each character puts their special spin on it.

So then, maybe a descendent of the Hagen family found a need and no boots were forthcoming. So it goes. Poor Trump was selling gold sneakers...

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Wil not comment on each point , agree with some and disagree with some. But agree with your point five in the dumbest and thing of least possible relevance , but you also had to know that it was inevitable and will be repeated ad nauseam. Even replies here argue that it is the gun and Trump’s fault. Very surprised that one of your ten observations was not concerning the incompetence of the Secret Service in allowing this particular type of assault to occur. We have heard since last fall that they would not provide the additional support that the campaign requested given the vitriol directed toward Trump, and the fact that any student of potential assassination attempts knows that you cover adjacent rooftops within sniper range and they left this is unguarded is at the least malfeasance. The pattern is clear, despite the Kennedy family history ( of whom I am not a fan but consider those assassinations tragedies) they still refuse to provide this current Kennedy coverage while he is a candidate. Mayorkas is totally incompetent and should immediately resign, as we we needed more proof of what a hack he is.

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I suspect looking overprotected would make Trump complain that it made him appear weak.

How could Secret Service possibly block all distance views / opportunity for shooting?

Trump might as well be in the Pope Mobile, if you remember that (kind of a Bubble boy rig on wheels).

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I thought of the Pope Mobile!

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I get it . It is Trump’s fault. He invited this guy to shoot him.Even the head of the Pittsburg FBI commented that he could not understand how a rooftop at that distance with a clear view of the speakers platform could not have been patrolled. How does allowing yourself to be protected against snipers make anyone look weak. Stop attempting to explain what could have been a catastrophic failure Brk the FBI, unless you do not view it as such. This shooting was totally preventable.

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I sure didn't say that in any way. The threat level for all public figures, especially divisive ones, has risen dramatically in recent years. Appearing in public is fraught with opportunities for people to do harm. Politicians HAVE to interact with the public. The risk is high. If you think of every time either Trump or Biden was meeting with in a crowd, or leaning over a divider to shake hands with someone, there is always always always the risk that some nutjob who doesn't care about the consequences will jump forward and do something bad.

You'll notice I am not assigning blame to Trump.

But I do think it's a thorny problem. Secret Service likely foil a lot of attempts we never hear about, because publicity causes copy cats to try their luck.

Assassination is a dark road that nobody with any sense wants to start down. Be well.

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Appearing in public OUTSI

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Sorry OUTSIDE. Geez this should be a thing of the past . Remember J 6 and the speech in the elliptical ? And Hutchison testimony ?? Yeah, I could totally see Donald thinking - they’re not here to hurt ME, take down the metal detectors. I think the glass stopped it right ?

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Secret Service competence, ever, assumes facts not in evidence, but sure, blame Mayorkas for 60 years of USSS failures.

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Guess I should not be surprised that Mayorkas still has a few supporters. Failure abound ( by the Secret Service and all of the rest of us) , this rises to the level of gross negligence and total incompetence. Even the head of the Pittsburg FBI admits that he cannot conceive of why that rooftop was left unguarded and unsurveiled.

Hope that your undeserved support of Mayorkas is not due a wish that this had succeeded. Don Borngino , a former SS agent, has been widely admonished for claiming since last fall that Trump’s protection detail was insufficient. Think any of those who pooh poohed him as a conspiracy now will apologize that his concern seemed prescient. I am not holding my breath.

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I can’t imagine a more distorted attribution of meaning to my comment than this.

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Well, just saying, if you listen to that attendee on the BBC - they saw the guy climbing with the rifle. They tried ti alert the LE presence they saw nearby saying he was climbing the building with a weapon - which they thought was “odd”. So, this was long before the shooting starts - we know all sorts of events are stopped by bystanders - stay with me a minute - these young twenty something guys could have intervened , they chose not to. They did try to alert local police, who they just couldn’t seem to get their attention - net? These T supporters really are not willing to die for DJT- and also local LE could’ve reacted. So, more than

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A SS failure, eh? I want the guy in ClubQ protecting me and not these guys, just saying.

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Easy access to murder weapons has got to be a contributing factor to people trying to use them to murder people.

There will be an investigation of security at this event.

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To get spouse not to turn on the TV for the 5:30 news is a profoundly lost battle but I said that this is the worst possible thing for the Biden campaign because low information voters would feel sorry for Trump and be very uneasy about the state of the country. I then opened "The Madwoman In The Rabbis' Attic" the way I had planned. Essentially read only the introduction but methodology appears sound. Am excited for more.

(Did not do all 6. Spouse's medication went missing but situation does not appear to be life-threatening. Crashed at 3 am at what was looking like a very standard Doctor Who episode even though it is always welcome to see David Tennant again.)

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You write a good post, Mr. Drezner. Thank you. I’m needing to hear all the common sense I can get.

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