This was a thought provoking read but when it comes to a possible invasion of Taiwan, unless we have access to presumably secret intelligence the bottom line is that we just don't know. I agree the 'rational' decision for Xi would be not to order one soon but does he get reliable information send up to him and we don't know how he calculates risk and pay off. To put it another way, we just don't know!
Great to see the NY Times belatedly publish a refutation of the idea that China is poised to invade Taiwan. Still, Glaser understates the case. Such an invasion would be massively more difficult than the D-Day landings, even if there had been no tech advance since 1944. But with satellites and anti-ship missiles, it's impossible and becoming more so every day (if something impossible can become more impossible). I've been banging this drum for years https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/south-china-sea-trade-resource-nuclear-war-us-australia-taiwan-2398241
This was a thought provoking read but when it comes to a possible invasion of Taiwan, unless we have access to presumably secret intelligence the bottom line is that we just don't know. I agree the 'rational' decision for Xi would be not to order one soon but does he get reliable information send up to him and we don't know how he calculates risk and pay off. To put it another way, we just don't know!
Great to see the NY Times belatedly publish a refutation of the idea that China is poised to invade Taiwan. Still, Glaser understates the case. Such an invasion would be massively more difficult than the D-Day landings, even if there had been no tech advance since 1944. But with satellites and anti-ship missiles, it's impossible and becoming more so every day (if something impossible can become more impossible). I've been banging this drum for years https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/south-china-sea-trade-resource-nuclear-war-us-australia-taiwan-2398241
Middle Eastern escalation seems the bigger risk.