The Politics and Policy of Immigration Redux

Let's talk about another poll and another story about immigration!

Photo by Fabian Fauth on Unsplash

Hey, remember two weeks ago, the last time I wrote about the politics and policy of U.S. immigration? When I suggested that hardline positions on immigration were neither electoral nor policy winners? When I concluded: “Democrats should articulate a message on immigration that reminds Americans — who want to be reminded, by the way — that border security is important, but so is ensuring a large, healthy inflow of immigrants”?

I bring this all up because on Tuesday there was a poll and a front-page story that illustrates both aspects of my argument.

Let’s start with the poll, which will sound bad for those who support greater immigration into the United States. According to Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones, “Significantly more Americans name immigration as the most important problem facing the U.S. (28%) than did a month ago (20%). Immigration has now passed the government as the most often cited problem, after the two issues tied for the top position the past two months.”

Here’s the chart, which also looks bad at first glance:¹

So, does this falsify my argument from two weeks ago that, “it is Republicans who are the outlier on this issue”?

Nah. Not after Jones explains what caused the spike in immigration as an issue:

Republicans typically are the subgroup most likely to name immigration as the most important problem, and they are largely responsible for the increase in mentions this month. Currently, 57% of Republicans, up from 37% in January, say immigration is the top problem. Independents show a modest uptick, from 16% in January to 22% now, while there has been no meaningful change among Democrats (9% in January and 10% in February).

Residents of the East (36%) and South (31%) are more likely to say immigration is the biggest U.S. problem than are those living in the Midwest (25%) and West (22%). Southern residents have typically been most likely to regard immigration as the top issue.

Oh no, not Southerners and Republicans! They could be the crucial swing voter— wait.

One of the things going on here is the paradox of successful policy. For a lot of 2023 the economy was the primary concern of voters; last summer only 9% said that immigration was the most important problem. As inflation has objectively declined over the past year, however, so has voter concern for it.² For Republicans, this enables them to switch to immigration as their top concern. This might be due in part to increased flows of migrants crossing the Southern border — or it might be because their concerns about the economy are abating due to a wave of good news.

Ironically, one reason for the good economic news is — wait for it — the increase in immigration into the United States. The Washington Post’s Rachel Siegel, Lauren Kaori Gurley, and Meryl Kornfield explain:

Immigration has propelled the U.S. job market further than just about anyone expected, helping cement the country’s economic rebound from the pandemic as the most robust in the world.

That momentum picked up aggressively over the past year. About 50 percent of the labor market’s extraordinary recent growth came from foreign-born workers between January 2023 and January 2024, according to an Economic Policy Institute analysis of federal data. And even before that, by the middle of 2022, the foreign-born labor force had grown so fast that it closed the labor force gap created by the pandemic, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Immigrant workers also recovered much faster than native-born workers from the pandemic’s disruptions, and many saw some of the largest wage gains in industries eager to hire. Economists and labor experts say the surge in employment was ultimately key to solving unprecedented gaps in the economy that threatened the country’s ability to recover from prolonged shutdowns….

Fresh estimates from the Congressional Budget Office this month said the U.S. labor force will have grown by 5.2 million people by 2033, thanks especially to net immigration. The economy is projected to grow by $7 trillion more over the next decade than it would have without new influxes of immigrants, according to the CBO.

Meanwhile, the Trump campaign continues to plan a truly Draconian series of restriction and deportation measures if they come to power in 2025, including militarizing the border, relying on local police for neighborhood raids, and building mass deportation camps. The policies are so extreme that the Washington Post story covering it quotes a Center for Immigration Studies official who think it goes to far. This is the think tank equivalent of Michael Bay complaining that a movie has too many explosions.

To sum up: I still think that anti-immigration sentiment is being exaggerated, and that immigration’s actual benefits to the U.S. economy are wildly underappreciated. I look forward to demonstrating these points yet again in the coming months.

1. It’s hard to look at that poll and believe the claims that foreign policy will matter in this election.

2. Not for nothing, but Gallup’s polling numbers on the economy are insane: “Currently, 26% of U.S. adults describe current economic conditions as excellent or good, while 32% say they are only fair and 41% poor…. When asked whether the economy is getting better or worse, 32% say it is improving and 61% worsening. However, the 32% who believe the economy is getting better is the highest Gallup has measured since September 2021.” I know Good Authority’s John Sides has an explanation for this, but it’s still nuts.