If I’ve learned one thing this century, it’s that Bad Things Are Bad, and that those in charge are generally blamed. I think we all misunderstood this year’s elections and events as being driven primarily by local factors, when really the whole world is mad about a shitty four years— about the pandemic, the strife it caused, the disorder it brought and the inflation it triggered. And Prof. Drezner is right, nobody’s been immune. And to give my hobbyhorse a good rocking, this is why the narrative of Trump triumph, Dem collapse is wrong and pernicious. We’ve had so many insanely close elections that a merely extremely close election looks like a blowout.
Daniel W. Drezner: Concise and informative, especially incisive here:
"North Korea has already sent so many conventional weapons and ammunition to Russia “it cannot fight a war in Korea right now even if it wanted to,” said Doo Jin-ho, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul. “That may be Kim Jong-un’s biggest vulnerability now.”
"Russia is also facing difficulties because of its invasion of Ukraine. While there are questions of how long Ukraine can hold out, I have heard similar musings about Russia. As the war looks approaches its fourth year, cracks in the Russian economy are triggering some loud elite bickering. Last month the Economist warned that the Russian economy was in a bad way. Earlier this month the New York Times’ Anatoly Kurmanaev reported that, “The wartime economy that Russia spurred into overdrive is slowing, causing tensions among the country’s economic elites as the war with Ukraine approaches its fourth year…. The combination of rising prices and falling economic activity has led some economists and officials to warn that the Russian economy is moving toward stagflation, a quagmire where prices rise quickly without growth.”
Absolutely obvious and yet brilliant at the same time. As someone who has a soft spot for democracy, this was relieving - until the thought of mutual mass destruction entered my thoughts. Now, I'll be hiding in my closet with the lights turned off.
"Which means that 2025 might be an even more unstable year than 2024."
And just the team to lead the US amidst growing international instability: tRump and MAGA.
Can it get any worse? Well, you ain't seen nuthin' yet!
If I’ve learned one thing this century, it’s that Bad Things Are Bad, and that those in charge are generally blamed. I think we all misunderstood this year’s elections and events as being driven primarily by local factors, when really the whole world is mad about a shitty four years— about the pandemic, the strife it caused, the disorder it brought and the inflation it triggered. And Prof. Drezner is right, nobody’s been immune. And to give my hobbyhorse a good rocking, this is why the narrative of Trump triumph, Dem collapse is wrong and pernicious. We’ve had so many insanely close elections that a merely extremely close election looks like a blowout.
Two things that must always be borne in mind when comparing democracies and autocracies.
The faults of democracies are easier to see, and the faults of autocracies are kept better hidden.
The Soviet Union’s fall came as a shock to observers in 1991. I wonder who will shock us in 2025?
Daniel W. Drezner: Concise and informative, especially incisive here:
"North Korea has already sent so many conventional weapons and ammunition to Russia “it cannot fight a war in Korea right now even if it wanted to,” said Doo Jin-ho, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul. “That may be Kim Jong-un’s biggest vulnerability now.”
"Russia is also facing difficulties because of its invasion of Ukraine. While there are questions of how long Ukraine can hold out, I have heard similar musings about Russia. As the war looks approaches its fourth year, cracks in the Russian economy are triggering some loud elite bickering. Last month the Economist warned that the Russian economy was in a bad way. Earlier this month the New York Times’ Anatoly Kurmanaev reported that, “The wartime economy that Russia spurred into overdrive is slowing, causing tensions among the country’s economic elites as the war with Ukraine approaches its fourth year…. The combination of rising prices and falling economic activity has led some economists and officials to warn that the Russian economy is moving toward stagflation, a quagmire where prices rise quickly without growth.”
Very helpful and astute analysis of the global instability every regime is facing! Thank you and Happy Holidays
... and Romania, which is in its way an even weirder case...
Absolutely obvious and yet brilliant at the same time. As someone who has a soft spot for democracy, this was relieving - until the thought of mutual mass destruction entered my thoughts. Now, I'll be hiding in my closet with the lights turned off.