Will Tim Walz Reclaim Common Sense for the Democrats?

What the Minnesota governor brings to the Democratic ticket.

Photo by Marek Studzinski on Unsplash

The hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World did not invest a lot of emotional and cognitive energy into who Kamala Harris would select as her vice presidential nominee. In previous posts I expressed an affinity for Andy Beshear, mostly because of how well he had done in Kentucky and how well he would pair against JD Vance in a debate. Nate Silver made a compelling argument that Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro made sense electorally because he would have made his state more likely to go for Harris. Brian Beutler made the case for Tim Walz — and an even more compelling case that All of the Choices were Good and folks should stop obsessing about it.

Beutler proved to be right: all of Harris’ finalists seemed pretty competent. She had no Sarah Palins or, um, JD Vance’s on her list. And, in the end, she went with Minnesota governor Tim Walz:

Minnesota is not a pivotal state, and MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki makes a persuasive case that Walz is not quite the rural vote whisperer that some pundits have claimed. So what have Democrats gained from this whole process?

A few things. The most important thing is the dog that did not bark. The Harris campaign did not leak the Walz pick until Tuesday morning, which is impressive given that the rollout was later on Tuesday. This is yet another encouraging sign that, contra to what happened in 2020, the Harris campaign has their shit together.

As for Walz himself, NBC’s Chuck Todd noted on air that “Tim Walz speaks American” as opposed to speaking “Washington.” The hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World would frame this a bit differently: Walz is trying to reclaim “common sense” politics for Democrats.

In American politics, saying something is just “common sense” is a way of appealing to a voter’s gut instincts and impressions, to make them think, “yeah, that’s what I think as well!” It is not an act of persuasion, it is an act of identification with the voter. When politicians say, “this is just common sense!” they are not trying to shift the voter to their policy preferences. They are trying to signal to voters that the politician shares their pre-existing preferences.

In recent years, conservatives have had a better run of appealing to “common sense” politics. Indeed, I would go so far as to say that conservatives possess an asymmetric advantage in this area. Conservatives will often point to social changes with a cry of “that’s nuts!” and an awful lot of Americans, bewildered by such change, will agree. “Why do people have to declare their pronouns nowadays!” “Paper straws are awful!” This kind of Andy Rooney-style campaigning might seem silly to some. If, however, the opposition can be portrayed as ignoring common sense and not governing in the mainstream, it is political gold. No doubt, Republicans will eventually get organized and focus their fire on Kamala Harris’ 2020 campaign as a way of suggesting she isn’t a common-sense politician.

And that brings us to Walz. We know that he was the politician who started characterizing Trump and Vance as “weird” — an appellation that sure seems to have some legs. Of Politico’s 55 facts about Tim Walz — many of which are extraordinary — this one stood out: “Walz frequently defends his policies, such as the universal school meals bill signed into Minnesota law earlier this year, as common sense: “What a monster! Kids are eating and having full bellies so they can go learn and women are making their own healthcare decisions,” Walz said jokingly.”

In his roll-out speech yesterday in Philadelphia, Walz played on similar common-sense themes:

Some of us in here are old enough to remember – I see you down there, I see those old white guys — some of us are old enough to remember when it was Republicans who were talking about freedom. It turns out now, what they meant was the government should be free to invade your doctor’s office. In Minnesota, we respect our neighbours and the personal choices that they make. Even if we wouldn’t make the same choice for ourselves, there is a golden rule: mind your own damn business….

When the vice president and I talk about freedom, we mean the freedom to make your own health care decisions. And for our children to be free to go to school without worrying they will be shot dead in their classrooms. By the way, as you heard, I was the best shot in Congress. In Minnesota, we believe in the Second Amendment. But we also believe in common sense gun laws.

Vice President Harris’ idea of freedom is for education to be that ticket to the middle class. Not crippling debt. Air that is clean. Water that is pure. Communities that are safe. A place where we settle our political differences not through violence, but with our votes. And that is what this election is about. What direction will this country go in? We’re not going back….

I just have to say it. You know it. You feel it. These guys are creepy, and, yes, just weird as hell. That’s what you see. That’s what you see.

The Atlantic’s Tom Nichols gets at Walz’s ability to embody common sense as well:

Walz does not balance the ticket in terms of policy, but if Democrats are trying to build a Team Normal to take on Team Weird—as Walz himself dubbed the Republicans—then a Nebraska native who became Minnesota’s governor makes a lot of sense. As Jill Lawrence wrote in The Bulwark today, Walz—a hunter and a guy who looks comfortable holding a piglet at a state fair—can speak to voters both in the cities and in rural areas. (He won election to Congress by flipping a GOP-held district in 2006 and was reelected five times.) Ezra Klein, meanwhile, noted while interviewing Walz that he projects “Midwestern dad vibes.”

Walz, in other words, comes across in public like a normal person with a life story that most Americans can understand. He spent most of his working years before politics as a beloved high-school teacher and football coach. (He reminds me of one of my wonderful and unflaggingly liberal history teachers, who wrote “Up the Irish and the Democrats” in my yearbook.) Politics is full of lawyers and policy wonks from glitzy schools; Walz went to local state schools and got the kinds of degrees in social science and education common to teachers. He served as an enlisted man in the Army, reaching the rank of command sergeant major—a significant achievement, as retired Army Lieutenant General Mark Hertling explained on X today.

Walz also talks like an ordinary American, which could be a big advantage in 2024. Trump is a babbling autocrat; Vance tries to talk like Trump and sounds like an inauthentic babbling autocrat. Harris can be awkward when she’s not sticking to a script; she’s gotten a lot better since her short-lived 2020 presidential bid, but I suspect that of the four of them, Walz will likely have the easiest time connecting to voters who just want to hear from someone who speaks simply and directly.

Heck, even former GOP colleagues in the House of Representatives are writing op-eds on Fox News characterizing Walz as “a normal guy.”¹

It is an open question whether Walz’s more progressive brand of “common sense” politics will have the desired effect. But if he manages to remind Americans that “kids should not be hungry at school” and “politicians should not be in America’s bedrooms” are common-sense nostrums, then it’s going to be an interesting 90 days until November 5th.

1. The videos he records with his daughter are another great example of Walz being Team Normal.